My Grand Unified Theory of the GOP Primary

I figured by calling it a 'unified theory' it makes it sound scientific and by calling it 'grand' it makes it sound, er, grand.

Actually you could say that on Presidential primary elections in general there are two theories.

A. There is the General Theory that says The Party Decides. 

This is the theory of political scientists and what most pundits during this election continue to assume.

B. But then there's the Special Theory that says the theory usually  holds, but not for the GOP this year.

For more on A and B see Nate Silver.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/maybe-republicans-really-are-in-disarray/

The 2016 primary race has required a Special Theory to explain it. Just like Einstein's relativity theory only became unified once he had a special and general theory of relativity-and Keynes had the same thing in mind with his General Theory-so we here need a ST to round out the GT where the party decides.

In this year's debate you can say there is three tiers.

1. The establishments candidates. These are Jeb and Rubio. Yes, technically you could also argue for Kaisch and Christie but I think the ship has sailed on both of them.

2. The outsiders. Mostly Ben Carson and Donald Trump. Arguably you could put Carly Fironia here but I think she's more establishment in her positions and presentation. It's also notable that she has a few insider endorsements though not many. Also I kind of see Fiorina as done.

3. The wild cards-mainly Ted Cruz. Rand Paul is not a wild card-he's not a factor at all. Cruz sort of straddles both worlds to get the best of both.

It's in the interests of the establishment to see someone from 1 win it's true.

Parenthetically, Cruz as Silver has suggested could be the firewall if they absolutely cannot get anyone from 1 in as he'd be preferable to 1 though he is hated by literally everyone in the establishment GOP>

But there is also a real timeliness concern. I think it's certainly arguable that the longer this drags on the worst it is for the establishment even if they ultimately prevail

http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2015/10/29/hillary-clinton-won-third-gop-debate-heres-why.html?intcmp=hpbt1

The longer it takes them to choose an establishment candidate the worse their ultimate election prospects look.

This means they want to choose from 1 ASAP. Logically then, it's in their interest to kick Jeb to the curb ASAP. There has been so many worries for his donors and last night is going to lead them to full panic mode.

In any case Jeb's biography is horrible. Rubio will doubtless is he runs against HRC accuse her of being a dynasty candidate. This is impossible for Jeb to do as he's from the biggest family dynasty in the country.

You have young, Latino Rubio who talks about knowing how average people feel with debts, etc vs. Jeb who has now been reduced to running as his brother's third term.

"In the insurgent lane, Ted Cruz, a candidate whose chances were already on the upswing, probably helped himself during the debate. It’s possible that Cruz’s gains will come at Donald Trump’s expense, although I personally thought Trump did fine2 and that if Cruz gains in the polls, it could come from Ben Carson or some other candidate instead."

"But whether it’s Cruz or Trump or Carson ahead, the Republican establishment can’t wait that much longer to get its act together. And the most expedient way to do that may be to kick Bush to the curb."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/jeb-bush-cnbc-republican-debate/

So it seems to me that if I'm the establishment that would be my move right now. This was Yglesias' argument for Jeb getting out a week ago. 

http://www.vox.com/2015/9/21/9366669/jeb-bush-should-drop-out

Of course, that is what he should do for the good of the establishment but it's not in his own best interest. His interest is in becoming President not making sure the establishment gets in even if it's not him. This is though the argument Scott Walker had made in dropping out. 

So where does this lead the outsiders? From their stand point it may be better than Jeb doesn't leave which is ironic considering that Trump has done more than anything to make sure Jeb has no chance of every sniffing the nomination. 

Is the 50% or more of the party that's been going for the outsiders ready to shut and sing for Rubio? I have my doubts about this. 

You could argue that from the outsider perspective it would make sense for either Carson or Trump to get out but again, Jeb isn't running for insiders firstly but himself. Trump and Carson would be even less interested in sitting out just to help an outsider win. 

I think what happens here depends on this question:

How much did last night change the mood of the party. Are they now ready to jump in for an insider? Probably not yet, but it will be interesting to see if the total outsider vote continues to hover around 50%. 

The establishment hopes it won't. My thumbnail prediction for now:

I assume that Rubio will be the guy. At some point there will be a battle between him for the establishment and Carson and/or Trump for the outsiders. My assumption is that Carson doesn't have much legs beyond Iowa. 

Meanwhile there will be a third lane with Cruz in it. 

If Jeb does stay in it will be harder still for the establishment. Even if he leaves this may simply redistribute the roughly 17% he and Jeb have been splitting, while leaving the outsiders at 50% or beyond. 

The best hope for an insider is for Jeb to leave ASAP. The best hope for an outsider is for the other to leave-probably it will have to be Carson. 

At this point in time the vote in the party for outsiders more than doubles up insiders. The challenge for the GOP establishment is to change this ASAP or at least before the Convention next year!

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