Thursday, August 4, 2016

Trump May Start Dragging Down GOP Senate Candidates

What came out of NH is spooking the GOP. 

"NH poll tells you all you need to know about why Republicans are panicking: Trump -15 ---> Ayotte -10."

"PA poll another example of why Republicans are panicking; Trump -9 ---> Toomey -1"

"Sean Duffy, Trump's top supporter in WI delegation,sides with Ryan v Trump saying on CNN Trump's stance "makes no sense" and hurts him in WI."

Remember, Trump lost handily to Ted Cruz in WI.

"This is why there is talk that the GOP may pivot away from Trump and towards protecting Senate races-as they did with Bob Dole in 1996."

"Unless Trump’s position improves, Republicans will be able to maintain control of the Senate only if enough voters split their tickets, voting Republican for the Senate but not in the presidential race. And the polls suggest that could happen: The Republican candidate for Senate is leading in a number of states where Trump is facing a deficit. At the moment, Sen. Marco Rubio is up in Florida, Joe Heck is ahead in Nevada (which would be a Republican pickup of Sen. Harry Reid’s seat), Sen. Richard Burr leads in North Carolina, Sen. Rob Portman is holding off Ted Strickland in Ohio, and Sen. Pat Toomey is hanging on in Pennsylvania."

"But all those Republican candidates are leading by 5 percentage points or less. In the last presidential election cycle, 2012, a number of RepublicanSenate candidates faded down the stretch, and some, such as Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin, lost healthy-sized leads as the summer turned to fall. In an era in which fewer people are splitting their tickets, the advantages currently enjoyed by the Republican candidates for Senate aren’t secure. If Trump’s troubles continue or worsen, he could take down these Republican candidates with them."

"One place where we might be seeing that already is New Hampshire. A new poll there taken after the Democratic convention by MassINC for WBUR shows Trump down 15 percentage points and Ayotte down 10 points. While that result may not reflect where the New Hampshire race eventually settles after the Democratic convention bounce fades, the poll points to potential trouble for Republicans in other battleground states. In looking at the crosstabs, MassINC pollster Steve Koczela told me that it was interesting “how closely tied the Ayotte and Trump vote are. I’d see that as evidence that Trump is hurting her.” In other words, voters’ views on Trump may be influencing their Senate vote. If that happens across the country and Trump continues to trail, it could lead to a Democratic majority in the Senate come 2017."

In other news, a House GOPer in Colorado is running on 'standing up to Trump.'

"Republican releases ad promising to ‘stand up’ to Trump."

"Mike Coffman, a House Republican from Colorado, is the first House Republican to use explicitly anti-Trump messaging in paid advertising."

Read more:


  1. Sumner's latest on Trump:

    Deranged and unhinged

    Bob Murphy comments. He's not a Trump fan, but he's guilty of false equivalences.

  2. Bob Murphy is a Trump fan. Or he's totally anti Hillary. He claimed that Hillary literally had someone killed. He's way out there

    1. In this case he's making fun of Johnson. Scott calls him on it, pointing out the singular threat that Trump is.


    Republicans for Hillary organization (highlighted by Jennifer Rubin today)

  4. Mike, Ann Coulter says it's ¡Adios America! if Trump loses. So where will Ann lead her tribe if that happens? Canada? Iceland? Finland? Norway? Russia? [1-way] Mission to Mars? We need to begin planning for the possibility of a Trump defeat now and start a crowd funding resettlement project now so that non-cucks like Ann can find a place to practice good racial hygiene!! #AdiosAnn

    BTW, I don't know if you followed that link to Sumner's comment I left for you yesterday in which he expressed that black voters (and non-white votes in general) are saving us from the catastrophic voting habits of white America (he mentioned Sanders by name, but in context we can take it to mean Trump even more so). My comment to you was "This sounds like you Mike!"

    1. Yes, I saw it. He's made that point before and I wrote about him saying that before.

      As for Coulter: as if we need more added incentive. LOL

  5. Remember that comment I left yesterday arguing that Leon Wolf was wrong about Tim Huelskamp and his loss and what it means? I argued that Wolf (and purists like him) mistook zeal or purity for zeal for humiliating the black man w/ the funny name in the WH. The man who causes so much of bigoted white America extreme cultural and racial anxiety, not by what he did or said, but by his existence as their president.

    Well, Jennifer Rubin looks at that today as well and gets it right(er):

    The GOP will have two problems for the foreseeable future: Donald Trump and the talk radio/tea party/Freedom Caucus/Heritage Action axis of manufactured outrage, phony facts and anti-government zealotry. The former will, we fervently hope, be solved when Trump (if he makes it that far) is soundly beaten in November. The latter, however, which in many ways paved the way for a character like Trump who peddles resentment and anti-immigrant hysteria, will not been defeated in one election. Nevertheless, the GOP took a much-welcomed step in dumping an incumbent who was the perfect embodiment of that right-wing axis.

    What I fear she gets wrong is that they weren't dumping Huelskamp for being a purist, they were dumping him because he didn't back Trump. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope I am.

  6. Some of what they guy who beat Helskamp said was critical of Huelskamp for getting booted off the AG Committee and generally being a purist who gets nothing done.

    But he did run on a Trumpian line.

    The fly in the ointment is that Trumpism won't necessarily die if he loses. You may see a Holy War between Trumpkins, the Tea Partiers-a la Ted Cruz-and the Paul Ryan Establishment wing of the party.

    It's not clear right now who wins.