Thursday, August 4, 2016

The Hillary Clinton Bounce is Real

Turns out simply campaigning in an unconventional strategy doesn't mean it's a good one. The same media who acted like Trump could never happen in the GOP primary acts as if he's this strategic, asymmetric genius now.

But sometimes a strategy us unconventional because it's a bad one. Like going after the Khan family on their Muslim faith.

"More than three-quarters of voters have heard about Donald Trump’sspat with Khizr and Ghazala Khan, the Muslim-Americans whose son died serving as an Army captain in Iraq."

"And that’s not good news for Trump."

"According to a new Fox News poll, 77 percent of voters knew of the harsh words exchanged between Trump and the Khans in the wake of Khizr Khan’s fiery anti-Trump speech at the Democratic National Convention. Nearly 7 in 10 of those who have heard about the controversy think Trump stepped over the line."

"Even Republicans are split on Trump’s response: 40 percent say his criticism of the Khans was “in bounds,” while 41 consider his reaction “out of bounds.” Not surprisingly, 93 percent of Democrats said Trump’s comments were out of bounds; 63 percent of independent voters agreed."

Certainly going after a Gold Star family in the manner Trump did-insulting their religion-is unconventional. This turns out to be for good reason. Presidential candidates usually don't do it not because their not brilliant like Trump, but because it's an awful strategy.

We now see Trump trailing by 7 points in the Huffpolllster average-and 6 in the RCP average. Nate Silver:

Perhaps the worst take is the "Trump's actually doing well to only be down by 7!!!" take. He's the least popular major-party nominee ever."

I don't get this 'only 7 points' thing. This is not a Banana Republic-though that's where Trumpism would take us with talk of rigged elections and 'Lock her up!"

George H.W. Bush won by 7.8 points and this was a landslide with 426 electoral votes to 111 for Dukakis.

Obama won by about 7 points in 2008. We haven't had an election with a double digit difference since Reagan-Mondale.

What it comes down to is the media attempting to pretend this is a race no matter what happens.

Per Chuck Todd, the Hillary Clinton bounce is real:

"A spate of new polling shows that the initial evidence of a significant post-convention bounce for Hillary Clinton is looking like it COULD become a sturdy lead for the Democratic nominee. A new Franklin and Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania shows Clinton with an 11 point lead over Trump, 49 percent to 38 percent. A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll of Michigan voters finds a nine point lead for the former secretary of state, 41 percent to 32 percent. And a freshWBUR/MassINC poll this morning shows Clinton opening up a 15 point lead over the GOP nominee in New Hampshire, 47 percent to 32 percent. Add that to national polls this week from NBC News|SurveyMonkey (Clinton +8), CNN/ORC(Clinton +9) and FOX News (Clinton +10). Bottom line: Trump couldn't have picked a worse week to have a DISASTROUS week. Clinton was already in the midst of a convention bump, and Trump exacerbated it with his series of unforced errors and unnecessary fights. The next question: How does the Trump campaign react in the next week, when even more national and state polls are likely to show a similar gap between the two candidates?"

Of course, he still has to try to spin this in an 'evenhanded way.'

"Our friend Amy Walter over at the Cook Political Report had some smart observations yesterday when she noted that, for all the GOP hand-wringing in the last 24 hours, this race isn't over yet for three reasons: Both candidates are still widely disliked, Clinton's standing in the polls could be swayed either by events outside her control or by an unforced error, and plenty of voters still aren't glued to every development of the campaign."

In theory it's never over till it's over. What would it have to look like for the media to admit Trump is losing?

I don't believe there are any historical antecedents at least since the start of the 20th century where you've seen a candidate basically trail from wire to wire and then come back, much less win the landslide Scott Adams claims Trump will win through 'masterly persuasion.'

"And it's been such an unpredictable few months that it's even easier than in past cycles to imagine a single development - a potential terror attack, another damaging hack, or another avoidable blunder by Clinton on handling the email scandal, for example -- shaking up Clinton's lead. Her victory depends on solidifying this post-convention bounce and holding on to it for three months. That said, the data we're starting to see suggests that she's entering the general election mode with a robust advantage."

What is being ignored is how stable this race has been. Trump has basically never led. He tied it just after winning the nomination and after Comey put his finger on the scale and the RNC.

Now she has as big a lead as she's had since the general begun.

In other news, Hillary leads by 4 in a new Rasmussen poll. This is basically an 8 point lead in a normal poll.

I notice that RCP tends to somewhat understate HRC"s lead in the averages. Like they are still showing the Reuter's poll from Friday in their average where she led by 5 and not the one out yesterday which showed her up by 8. Similarly with the favorable rating, they still show an older Gallup poll where she's -19 and not the post DNC poll where she's only -9.

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