Thursday, August 4, 2016

In Florida Poll, More bad News for Trump's Poll Addiction

The media has tried to promulgate this myth that Trump is some sort of brilliant asymmetrical campaigner because of how unconventional he is. In the primary, the Beltway pretty much universally dismissed his chances until very late. 

In the general they have overcompensated the other way. Now no matter how much of his own tie he swallows you'll get pundits nodding sagely that Trump is Teflon. Nothing hurts him. This is only half true. Nothing hurt him in the primary. 

The batch of polls we've seen this week serve to disabuse this notion that Trump is in any way Teflon. 

One big difference for Trump between the primary and the general has been polling. The polls Trump has been able to show off have been far and few between in the general as opposed to the primary were there was good news for him everyday. 

"The latest Fox News poll is worth examining if only because it might intensify Donald Trump’s meltdown. He trails in the poll by 10 points, the first time he has been trailing Hillary Clinton in any national poll since early July. In late June, Trump was behind by 6 points in Fox’s poll."

"It is also interesting insofar as it sheds light on which issues and constituencies (if any) each candidate is demonstrating progress. The good news for Clinton is that she gained 12 points since June to tie Trump on handling terrorism. Voters consider her qualified by a large margin (65 percent to 35 percent) in contrast with Trump (43 percent to 58 percent). Clinton has also leapt ahead by 10 points with voters lacking a college degree, which used to be Trump’s bailiwick. She is up by 20 points among women and trails among men by just 4 points."

"For Trump, the numbers look worse when you isolate Republicans: 30 percent do not think he is trustworthy, 27 percent say he lacks the temperament to be president and 24 percent say he lacks the requisite knowledge. After his convention, he has only 78 percent of Republicans. (Mitt Romney wound up with 93 percent in 2012.) A plurality think his response to the Khans’ appearance at the Democratic National Convention was “out of bounds.” These are Republicans, mind you.

"This poll comes at a time state polls in states Trump bragged he could win show Clinton up by substantial margins. Clinton is up by 11 points in Pennsylvania, 17 points in New Hampshire and 9 in Michigan."

"Clinton, in short, was helped by her convention and post-convention events; Trump was harmed. How badly Trump was damaged and whether he is capable of repairing the damage remain to be seen."

"Bad polls do more than unnerve Trump. They dissuade donors, demoralize potential volunteers and fuel negative news cycles. But they also help Republicans stiffen their spines, as lawmakers who have been on the fence or who need to pull back from Trump will be encouraged as Trump’s support nose-dives. That will likely help swell the ranks of the not-Trump lawmakers (most recently Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.), an Air Force veteran who said he cannot back Trump “because he’s crossed so many red lines that a commander in chief or a candidate for commander in chief should never cross.”)

Hillary is now leading by more in the supposedly swing state of NH than Trump is in blood red Kentucky.

Trump isn't ahead in a single national poll at this time...

Now Suffolk University has him behind by 6 points. Trump was behind in a PA poll earlier today by 11.

"Hillary Clinton holds a six-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, according to the latest Suffolk University survey of likely voters in the state released Thursday."

"Matched head-to-head, Clinton took 48 percent, while Trump earned 42 percent. In a four-way matchup, Clinton grabbed 43 percent, followed by 39 percent for Trump, 4 percent for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein."

"Clinton leads Trump by 12 points among women in the two-way ballot test (50 percent to 38 percent) and by 24 points in South Florida (57 percent to 33 percent). Men are split between Trump, who picked up 46 percent to Clinton's 44 percent. Trump performed best in the northern part of the state, outdrawing Clinton 54 percent to 39 percent. The Republican nominee campaigned in Jacksonville, Florida, on Wednesday evening."

"Trump trailed Clinton by seven points (37 percent to 44 percent) in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll of registered voters conducted last month. A Quinnipiac University survey taken at the end of June and the beginning of July showed Trump with a three-point edge of 42 percent to 39 percent."

Read more:

If he loses PA or Florida, it's over. Right now RCP average has Hillary up by 8 points in PA-average not one or two polls.

But as Jennifer Rubin says, the case for GOPers running for Congress distancing themselves from Trump is only going to increase.

Even Newt Gingrich, the man Trump really wanted for VP is distancing himself from Trump by so vocally endorsing John McCain.

Meanwhile, the Trump team tries to sell optimism about Trump's chances.
Sure. And as John McCain said in 2008 the fundamentals  of the economy are strong. 


  1. Last I checked in 538's Now Cast, Hillary was 92% and Trump was 8% (for an overall win).


  3. Mike, E. Harding finally inadvertently revealed his troll hand: argues with me that (after I state my distrust for Trump re: war & nuclear weapons, and how relatively unimportant gay wedding cakes are to that concern) countries can "bounce back" after nuclear wars! Just look at Japan!

    So, my suspicion of him being a troll this whole time has just increased dramatically:

    1. Don't get me wrong though: I still think it's more likely he's for real, and all he's revealed is what a dumbass he really is.

    2. Yes, I'd go with delusion. LOL