Sunday, August 7, 2016

In New Washington Post/ABC Poll, Hillary Leads 50-42

There's been a good amount of talk about whether Hillary's bounce fades in the next week or two.

"Good chance polls will tighten over the next week or 2 but not much evidence of that yet. People cherry-picking to force the case a bit."

Nate Cohn though argues that her bounce may be more lasting as a large part of it is due to greater party unity.

This morning's ABC/WAPO poll certainly shows no sign of her bounce fading.

"Hillary Clinton has opened an 8-point lead over Donald Trump after both parties' conventions, according to a new national poll."

"Powered by boosts in support from women, Catholics and the college-educated, Clinton leads the presidential race by 50 percent to 42 percent in the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll of registered voters -- up from 4 percentage points in mid-July."

Read more:

Her lead is consistent whether you look at likely voters instead of registered, or whether you include Jill Stein and Gary Johnson.

"Among likely voters, Clinton bests Trump 51 to 44 percent. When Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are included, Clinton leads Trump 45 to 37 with registered voters, followed by 8 percent for Johnson and 4 percent for Stein."

Read more:

Trump is still failing on the party unity front which explains his sudden endorsement of Paul Ryan, John McCain, and Kelly Ayotte-none of them will likely be trumpeting this. Ayotte is already getting grief for it.

"Seventy-three percent of those surveyed, including 59 percent of Republicans, said they disapprove of Trump's recent feud with the Khans, parents of a Muslim-American Army captain killed in Iraq in 2004."

"Clinton has opened a wide lead among women in particular -- 58 percent to his 35 percent. Among college-educated women, she leads Trump by 19 percentage points, 57 percent to 38 percent."

"Trump leads Clinton by 10 points among men, 51 percent to 41 percent. But Clinton is leading by 6 points among college-educated whites, a group typically won by Republicans. She also has picked up support among Catholics, a key swing vote in recent elections, 51 percent to 45 percent."

"The poll also highlight's Trump's struggles in consolidating the GOP behind his candidacy -- he has the support of just 83 percent of Republicans, compared with 92 percent of Democrats for Clinton. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who backed Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, 86 percent now support Clinton; Trump, in contrast, has the backing of only 74 percent of Republicans and leaners who preferred another candidate in the GOP primary."

"Clinton has also seen a modest uptick in favorability since the previous survey, moving from 42 percent to 48 percent. Her unfavorability rating, while still high, is now 50 percent, down from a peak of 55 percent in June."

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We have seen her favorability rating rise consistently in post RNC polling.

Nate Silver does say this race is coming close to the point of no return.

"In some sense, the rest of the election is about Clinton and not Trump. Trump's favorables are as bad as ever and perhaps getting worse."

"Trump probably won't "pivot" and even if he tried, the public isn't amnesiac and won't forget everything he's done and said for a year+""

"But at her worst moments, Clinton's image has been almost as bad as Trump's. Not so hard to imagine something that drags it down again."

This was true only in early July after James Comey's statement on the investigation. And it has been argued by some experts that he overstepped his bounds by saying things with no legal basis-like that she acted with 'extreme carelessness.'

This phrase is not based on any legal concept and was basically just him opining for the cameras. Meanwhile the press has wrongly claimed that Comey said she lied. No, he said 'Acted with extreme carelessness.'

As we already saw, he may have been wrong to do that, but he did not say she was a liar and no one has proven that she is.

In any case, this period was the one where her numbers did seem close to his. On average for the entire election this has been untrue.

"We're nearing the point where Clinton has to screw up, or get screwed up by leaks/scandals/gaffes/news, to lose. Not there yet but close."

As it is, the Trump surrogates and GOPers never have any answer for anything about Trump's latest mess than 'But Hillary-.'

Yesterday, Joy Reid had a female Trump supporter on. The topic was why Trump does so poorly with women. The Trumpster's answer was to divert to Bill Clinton's affairs in the 90s.

About the only thing they have left is to try to demonize HRC. But as Jennifer Rubin says, this is not enough.

This is actually a recurring problem in the GOP's battle with the Clintons. They always think if they can just muddy them up enough with real or imagined scandals they will win.

But what the Clintons understand is that people care more about their own lives than these interminable process issues like who sent what email to whom and whether it was private or government email.

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