Thursday, August 4, 2016

In New McClatchy-Marist Poll, Hillary Even Leads With White and Male Voters

Scott Adams is showing himself to be no prophet at all. It's one thing to be wrong-the prediction business isn't easy. But he is 1000% wrong. That takes effort.

He predicted that Hillary would get a negative bounce from her convention. Not surprising: Adams is more or less desperate as he's predicted a Trump landslide. So he kind of had to predict a negative bounce to be right.

Of course, it was an absurd claim as the DNC hit it out the park. It seemed to me far more likely that Trump get the negative bounce if anyone did. Adams actually argued that the men of America would rebel because Hillary's female singers would make us feel inadequate.

I'm not that excited to be sharing the same gender as Scott Adams right about now.

I'm proud to be a man, of course. But please don't libel us with your own inadequacies, Mr. Dilbert:

"But if you’re an undecided voter, and male, you’re seeing something different. You’re seeing a celebration that your role in society is permanently diminished. And it’s happening in an impressive venue that was, in all likelihood, designed and built mostly by men. Men get to watch it all at home, in homes designed and built mostly by men, thanks to the technology that was designed and built mostly by men. I mention that as context, not opinion."

Again, as a man I didn't feel anything like that. Evidently many others didn't either.

I thought Dilbert Cum Goebbels was dead wrong, but even I didn't anticipate this:

"A new poll puts Hillary Clinton 15 percentage points ahead of Donald Trump among registered voters, according to the latest McClatchy-Marist survey, released on Thursday."

"The poll, which shows Clinton leading her Republican rival 48 percent to 33 percent, indicates a dramatic surge for the Democratic nominee since last month's edition of the survey, when she led Trump by just 42 percent to 39 percent."

"Clinton made strides with two crucial demographic groups that had previously favored Trump: whites and men. She leads the Manhattan billionaire by 8 percentage points among men and is up by 3 points among white voters, 41 percent to 39 percent."

Read more:

I'm not shocked that she now has a big lead-I'd expected a strong bounce-and Trump has shot himself in the foot repeatedly post convention. But that she is actually up 8 points with men-and 3 points with whites-that I did not see.

Good news for Trump in the NBC/Wall St. Journal poll, is he does 6 points better than Marist. The bad news is that still puts him 9 behind. So this week we've seen him down 8 on the Survey Monkey/NBC weekly poll; down 9 on CNN, down 9 on NBC/WSJ, 10 on Fox, and 15 on Marist; also 15 on Rabba.

He now trails by 7 points in the RCP average.

"Hillary Clinton has jumped out to a nine-point lead over Donald Trump, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll shows, nearly doubling the five-point advantage she held over her Republican foe before the political conventions."

"In a head-to-head matchup, the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine receives the support of 47 percent of registered voters, while the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence gets 38 percent, the survey shows. Last month, Clinton led Trump by a margin of 46 percent to 41 percent."

He does a little better with whites and men in this poll but it's still woeful for a GOP candidate.

"In this latest poll, Clinton enjoys a significant advantage among women (51 percent to Trump's 35 percent), African Americans (91 percent to 1 percent), all non-white voters (69 percent to 17 percent), young voters (46 percent to 34 percent), and white voters with a college degree (47 percent to 40 percent)."

"Trump leads among white voters (45 percent to Clinton's 40 percent), seniors (46 percent to 43 percent), independents (36 percent to 32 percent) and white voters without a college degree (49 percent to 36 percent)."

"The two candidates are running nearly even among men, at 43 percent for Clinton and 42 percent for Trump."

So at best he's tied among his two favored demographic group.

Harry Enten is honest here which is good. He still irritates me.

In trying to predict the primaries, I made the fatal flaw of believing GOP voters weren't suicidal. I was wrong.

I had sent him many tweets making just this point to him during the primary which he dismissed as the ravings of snarky riffraff.

Most pundits seem to have gotten this whole thing ass backwards.

1. In the primary they never believed for one moment that Trump could win. I for my part have argued this since last July-in other words 13 months ago.

2. But once the general started, this same pundits who were so dismissive of Trump's chances suddenly became very convinced that he's some political virtuous who's 'asymmetric warfare' would be way too much for Hillary Clinton who they insisted no one likes.

My view was the opposite. I knew Trump had a real shot at the primary because GOP voters are suicidal nihilists. I guess that when Enten and company saw that Trump had actually won, they reassessed Trump as they assumed that if the GOP voters voted for him he had to be a quality candidate.


  1. Mike, this make be laugh:

    Dilbert Cum Goebbels

    It sounds like the name of a German gay porn video.

  2. LOL. It's been so disillusioning to learn the truth about Dilbert!