David Vitter had made the unthinkable happen: a Democrat was recently elected Governor of the state of Louisiana.
"When Mary Landrieu lost her Senate runoff in December 2014, the once loyally Democratic Deep South turned bright Republican red, with no Democratic senator or governor in Louisiana, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama or South Carolina, and with Republican majorities in each state's legislatures."
"That pattern broke with the election of Democrat John Bel Edwards as governor of Louisiana, a race he won mostly because he was squaring off against David Vitter. When you can run an ad against your opponentfeaturing the line, "David Vitter chose prostitutes over patriotism" and not even be criticized for exaggeration, it's safe to say that your odds are good. Bel Edwards won by 12 points."
"A bad candidate, in other words, can make even long-term trends unimportant. Which brings us to Georgia."
"A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of the presidential race in that state puts Hillary Clinton in a slight lead over Donald Trump, 44 to 40. This is inside-the-margin-of-error stuff, mind you, but only barely. (It's also a break from the state of the race in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which gives Trump a four-point lead, though with only a handful of polls included.)"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/05/hillary-clinton-has-a-lead-in-georgia-and-its-not-even-that-surprising/?postshare=6861470408884137&tid=ss_tw
Actually the 4 point average lead for Trump was before the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll. Now his average is down to 2.7 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton-5741.html
And while there haven't been that many GA polls this is the third 10 days. In these three polls we saw Trump up by 4 in one; ie, showed a tie; now one has HRC up by 4.
We have seen a dramatic swing to Hillary this week. It's not just her DNC convention bounce either.
"Seems pretty clear now there were two bounces: Clinton's convention, then a negative for Trump with Khan. It's wider now than Monday."
https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/761327685113184257
"The polls get worse for Trump the more recent the field dates are. This is not just the DNC; it's the meltdown."
https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761328253978148866
Yes, time will tell if she retains her bounce-we'll know this within about two weeks. But it's not just the DNC bounce. It's the bounce from Trump's disastrous last 10 days-that started with his call for Putin to hack Hillary's emails.
The fight with the Khan family was the worst, and he has just dug in on this very hard.
"When Mary Landrieu lost her Senate runoff in December 2014, the once loyally Democratic Deep South turned bright Republican red, with no Democratic senator or governor in Louisiana, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama or South Carolina, and with Republican majorities in each state's legislatures."
"That pattern broke with the election of Democrat John Bel Edwards as governor of Louisiana, a race he won mostly because he was squaring off against David Vitter. When you can run an ad against your opponentfeaturing the line, "David Vitter chose prostitutes over patriotism" and not even be criticized for exaggeration, it's safe to say that your odds are good. Bel Edwards won by 12 points."
"A bad candidate, in other words, can make even long-term trends unimportant. Which brings us to Georgia."
"A new Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll of the presidential race in that state puts Hillary Clinton in a slight lead over Donald Trump, 44 to 40. This is inside-the-margin-of-error stuff, mind you, but only barely. (It's also a break from the state of the race in the RealClearPolitics polling average, which gives Trump a four-point lead, though with only a handful of polls included.)"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/08/05/hillary-clinton-has-a-lead-in-georgia-and-its-not-even-that-surprising/?postshare=6861470408884137&tid=ss_tw
Actually the 4 point average lead for Trump was before the Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll. Now his average is down to 2.7 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ga/georgia_trump_vs_clinton-5741.html
And while there haven't been that many GA polls this is the third 10 days. In these three polls we saw Trump up by 4 in one; ie, showed a tie; now one has HRC up by 4.
We have seen a dramatic swing to Hillary this week. It's not just her DNC convention bounce either.
"Seems pretty clear now there were two bounces: Clinton's convention, then a negative for Trump with Khan. It's wider now than Monday."
https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/761327685113184257
"The polls get worse for Trump the more recent the field dates are. This is not just the DNC; it's the meltdown."
https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761328253978148866
Yes, time will tell if she retains her bounce-we'll know this within about two weeks. But it's not just the DNC bounce. It's the bounce from Trump's disastrous last 10 days-that started with his call for Putin to hack Hillary's emails.
The fight with the Khan family was the worst, and he has just dug in on this very hard.
Even if the DNC bounce completely evaporates-which I'm skeptical of-I think the fight with the Khans does lasting damage.
Nate Cohn in any case argues that Hillary might keep her bounce as a big part of it is a ramp up in Dem unity.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/upshot/why-hillary-clintons-polling-bounce-has-a-better-chance-of-persisting.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur&_r=0
We have seen a dramatic swing to Hillary this week. It's not just her DNC convention bounce either.
"Seems pretty clear now there were two bounces: Clinton's convention, then a negative for Trump with Khan. It's wider now than Monday."
https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/761327685113184257
"The polls get worse for Trump the more recent the field dates are. This is not just the DNC; it's the meltdown."
https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761328253978148866
Nate Cohn in any case argues that Hillary might keep her bounce as a big part of it is a ramp up in Dem unity.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/upshot/why-hillary-clintons-polling-bounce-has-a-better-chance-of-persisting.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur&_r=0
We have seen a dramatic swing to Hillary this week. It's not just her DNC convention bounce either.
"Seems pretty clear now there were two bounces: Clinton's convention, then a negative for Trump with Khan. It's wider now than Monday."
https://twitter.com/POLITICO_Steve/status/761327685113184257
"The polls get worse for Trump the more recent the field dates are. This is not just the DNC; it's the meltdown."
https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761328253978148866
Nate Cohn in any case argues that Hillary might keep her bounce as a big part of it is a ramp up in Dem unity.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/upshot/why-hillary-clintons-polling-bounce-has-a-better-chance-of-persisting.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur&_r=0
Bruce Bartlett:
"GOP was united behind McCain & Romney and Obama got a majority of the vote against both. Deeply divided GOP will do much worse this year."
https://twitter.com/BruceBartlett/status/761034721883062275
Obama won by 7 points over Romney and 5 over McCain so that's the benchmark.
Hillary now has leads larger than she ever had previously to this week. Which would suggest that at least some of it could be permanent.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/03/upshot/why-hillary-clintons-polling-bounce-has-a-better-chance-of-persisting.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur&_r=0
Bruce Bartlett:
"GOP was united behind McCain & Romney and Obama got a majority of the vote against both. Deeply divided GOP will do much worse this year."
https://twitter.com/BruceBartlett/status/761034721883062275
Obama won by 7 points over Romney and 5 over McCain so that's the benchmark.
Hillary now has leads larger than she ever had previously to this week. Which would suggest that at least some of it could be permanent.
Now Nate Cohn has a new piece arguing this could be a meaningful shift in the race.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/06/upshot/why-a-meaningful-shift-in-the-trump-clinton-race-may-be-at-hand.html?_r=0
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