Monday, July 11, 2016

Two Polls: One Bad and One Good

I like to get the bad news out of the way first:

"Yep, it’s official: Bernie Sanders will campaign alongside Hillary Clinton at an event on Tuesday, meaning the process of Dem unity will now begin in earnest. Here’s one place where that could really help Clinton: In dealing with her email mess."

"A new Washington Post/ABC News poll finds that a majority of Americansdisapprove of FBI director James Comey’s recommendation that Clintonnot be charged with a crime over her email arrangement, by 56-35. Americans say by 57-39 that her handling of it makes them worry about how she’ll handle the presidency."

"What’s striking, though, is the degree to which this is driven by differences between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans are nearly unanimous in their disapproval of Comey’s decision, by 88 to seven. But according to the crosstabs, Democrats are substantially more split: 31 percent of Dems also disapprove, versus 63 percent who approve. Similarly, Dems say by 31-68 makes them worried about her presidency. Among independents, those numbers are 59-31 and 63-34."

"In other words, nearly a third of Democrats disapprove of Comey’s recommendation against charges and say it makes them worried about her presidency, and a whole lot of Dem-leaning independents say the same."

"What’s more, the crosstabs show that this is particularly pronounced among young voters and liberals: A majority of voters under 40 disapprove, by 55-32. And nearly half of liberals (43 percent) disapprove, while 49 percent approve. Similar percentages of those groups say this worries them about her presidency. Given those demographic breakdowns, it is possible — though the polling doesn’t say one way or the other — that there is substantial overlap between those Democrats and Dem-leaning independents who disapprove of Comey’s decision and those who support Sanders."

"As you may recall, one of Sanders’s biggest moments during the primaries came when he publicly exonerated her over the email mess at a debate last fall, to great cheers from the audience. Since then, of course, during the voting throughout the first half of this year, Sanders emerged as a real threat to Clinton, and he amassed unexpected support among Democrats and Dem-leaning independents. A lot of those voters probably came to see Clinton more negatively, amid increasing criticism of her ties to Wall Street and fundraising, and perhaps came to adopt a similarly dim view of her email arrangement, as it received more and more media coverage. So one thing to keep an eye on will be how, or whether, Sanders goes about reassuring his supporters — and other Democrats and Dem-leaning independents — that Clinton’s email arrangement should not weigh on them."

"Now, it’s true that in our new poll, a majority of Americans — 60 percent — say that the outcome of the email issue won’t effect their vote, while only 30 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for her. But it would be folly to dismiss the possibility that the email story could nonetheless subtly reinforce negative perceptions of her, particularly since it will apparently continue, as Republicans vow to push for an investigation of Clinton’s statements to Congress about it during the Benghazi probe, which, while unlikely to produce proof of perjury, will at least keep the issue in the news. It’s also very possible, of course, that GOP overreach on this issue could end up mitigating the impact of it. But the Clinton campaign can’t count on that happening."

"And so, with concerns about the email story running higher than expected among Democrats, Sanders could perhaps play a key role in addressing them."

So Sargent thinks that this number is driven by Berners. So, Bernie on the campaign trail with her tomorrow will help.

We'll see, It can't hurt. Certainly Bernie has plenty of offer in terms of what he's got in the platform.

What this shows yet again, is the media can mislead the public. What is this belief that she should have been indicted based on?

Probably the same thing the public's belief in 2003 that there was an Iraq link to 9/11 was based on: misinformation from the media.

Ok, I need some good news:

"To the extent Donald Trump has a plausible strategy to win the White House, it involves using a pugnacious economic populism to maximize the white working-class vote, appeal to disgruntled Bernie Sanders supporters and paint the Rust Belt red. His favored tactical weapon is the contrast of his vociferous rejection of the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement to Hillary Clinton’s newfound and softer-spoken opposition."

"But so far, the weapon is a dud. An Economist/YouGov poll last week found that 61 percent are “uneasy” about Trump’s “ability to deal wisely with international trade,” with only 29 percent proclaiming themselves “confident.” The poll was conducted a few days after Trump delivered one of his most substantive policy speeches, in which he laid out his trade principles and accused Clinton of secretly planning to ratify TPP and “betray” American workers."

Thank goodness the public is not totally gullible. Bill Scher argues that an anti trade position has public appeal but that Trump is a bad messenger.

"While skepticism of past and future trade agreements cuts across party lines, stitching together a broad and politically potent left-right coalition remains tricky business for the most artful of politicians. And Trump is far from that."

"His best bet for transcending the ideological spectrum is to make the race about himself, assuring that he alone has the negotiating skills to forge “great deals” unlike the “all talk, no action” politicians."

"But making the race about yourself doesn’t work if people don’t like or respect you, and the Clinton campaign has done a far better job than Trump’s Republican primary opponents in sowing the seeds of disgust. Ads bludgeoning Trump’s business ethics and acumen have been circulating for weeks, spreading Trump’s 2006 comments that seemingly rooted for a real estate crash (“I sort of hope that happens, because then people like me would go in and buy”), mocking the fraudulent nature of Trump University and reminding people of his Atlantic City casino bankruptcies. If Trump is perceived as more scam artist than business savant, of course people would lack confidence in his ability to negotiate intricate international trade agreements."

Indeed. Trump has no record of public service. The only case he has is that he's a brilliant businessman that gets great deals. But if you look into it, his career is not so impressive in terms of deals and more so in terms of running a Ponzi scheme.

The Hillary team is doing a good job of making this case.

As Scher points out, Trump has changed his position too many times to have much political credibility. Even if you like something he promises, how much confidence can you have in any promises he makes?


  1. Mike, this is pretty good: Black Lives Matter meets Blue Lives Matter in Dallas:
    I have to hand it to RedState and Erickson for mostly focusing on that kind of thing, rather than the racial demagoguery of Harding and Horowitz.

  2. Hillary has a new anti-Trump ad:

    Unfortunately, the alt-right probably likes all those guys:
    (they have a weird fascination with / respect for Putin and Assad)

  3. You and Jen are on the same page in another respect:

  4. Ann Coulter entitles her new book:

    "In Trump We Trust: E Pluribus Awesome"

    and conservatives, who clutch their chests in shock whenever atheists try to remove 'In God We Trust' from our money, see it, they say "meh"

  5. Mike, Brit right wingers share a certain nuttiness with the ones we have here. Listen to this demagogue blowhard bad mouth Theresa May. His demagoguery and the visual images he uses and language he uses are pure right wing divide and conquer race baiting rah! rah! nationalist BS:

    "politically correct dripping wet liberal"

    (I notice that right wingers often are cowards and turn comments off)

    Compare that with any interview from Theresa and it's like night and day.

  6. A bit of the Overton window shifts left?

    And another bit of the window shifts up along the imaginary axis?:

  7. NeoBux is a very popular work from home site.