Thursday, July 14, 2016

The Wisdom of not Wetting the Bed

That was the first rule of the Obama campaign in 2008 and you once again see the wisdom of.

Nate Cohn:

"Terrible polls for Trump in diverse and well educated battlegrounds."

"CO Clinton 43 Trump 35"

"FL Clinton 44 Trump 37"

"NC Clinton 44 Trump 38"

"VA Clinton 44 Trump 35"

Roger Mexico:

"Gonna panic anyway as is my duty as a Democrat."

We'll see if Nate Silver adjusts the odds on this one. He adjusted them quite a bit towards Trump after those Quinnipiac polls. 

Of course, the spin always has to be negative. So one thing you hear is 'but look at all those voters choosing neither.' 

That was the case in 2012 to at this time. Obama didn't start to regularly poll in the high 40s or low 50s until September.

"Is it problematic that Hillary has yet to hit 50% in a lot of these polls?"

Nate Cohn has perfect answer:

"what about trump and 40?"

"The easy way look at battleground polls: I can't identify a battleground state where Trump has a lead."

"The best interpretation for Trump is that he's more or less tied in IA/NH/OH. The rest is not pretty."

Sad thing these days Georgia, Texas, Utah, and Arizona are looking kind of like swing states for Trump.

P.S. You can see now why Trump considered General Flynn to be his VP. Here's the general's reaction to the Bastille day attack:

In next 24 hours, I dare Arab & Persian world "leaders" to step up to the plate and declare their Islamic ideology sick and must B healed."

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