Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Ok, I'm Back in off the Ledge

Those early Qunnipiac polls had me going.

Right way I was questioning the existential underpinnings of our democracy.

After all, if American democracy can give us President Donald Trump, then what use is American democracy?

The Q polls showed Trump leading in Florida and leading by six in Pennsylvania-though by only 2 in a two person race.

Now NBC came out and I'm off the ledge for the moment.

"BREAKING NOW from @NBCNews/@WSJ/@Marist: IA: Clinton 42, Trump 39 OH: Clinton 39, Trump 39 PA: Clinton 45, Trump 36"

"Monmouth CO poll with 13-pt Clinton lead:

"Clinton - 48 Trump - 35 Johnson - 5 11% Hispanic sample"

That's a a little more like it.

A problem with Q polls in general is they widely undercount minority voters.

One reason to think maybe some polls underestimate Hillary is her base is minority voters who are often undercounted. Certainly Q does it.

"There have been polls which claimed Hillary has a smaller lead with Latinos than Obama vs. Romney. But those polls have a small Latino sample size."

"Indeed, something is off. Until recently, we have not been able to get a good handle on how Latino voters plan to vote in 2016 because sample sizes have been very small. Recently though, an important poll with a sample size of over 3,000 respondents gives us essential data. This poll shows Hillary with a resounding +67% lead — which obviously doesn’t square with Quinnipiac giving her a +24% lead among non-white voters in Florida."

What's interesting about the Q and NBC polls: such a wide divergence in PA and yet both show a tie in Ohio.

UPDATE: The Marquette Wisconsin poll just came in:

"New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump among registered voters in WI 43% to 37%. #mulawpoll"

I'm off the ledge! I'm inside the building. For today anyway. 


  1. Mike, this should help with that ledge:

    Note: I did as the author suggested and Googled his "classical reference" about pineapples:

  2. Mike, did you see the police video of the shooting of the unarmed white guy in Fresno, CA? Dylan Nobel is his name. This video is MUCH clearer than the one available a few days ago from across the street:

    Now there's no doubt the dude was acting strange and not complying with police orders to raise both his hands. I kept waiting for him to explain why he wasn't raising his right hand (I figured maybe it was because he couldn't for some reason). It seems like he's just starting to say something when they shoot him. The first time. Overall he gets shot 1 or 2 more times with pistols (I think just 1 more time actually), and then a cop with a shot gun shoots him too. But he goes right down with the 1st shot. The cops are still freaking because he's still not doing what they want with his hands, but he's lying flat on the ground after having been shot.

    I will be fascinated to hear the justification. Clearly the cops were scared. Clearly he wasn't showing his right hand. But also clearly he seemed out of it (to me). He gets out of the truck and starts slowly walking away (for example).

    I'm sorry, but I'm just not seeing why they have to shoot him. They've got three cops, two with pistols drawn and one with a shotgun trained on him.

    This puts everybody in a weird space I think. For BLM guys, it's proof that it's not just blacks that are shot under odd circumstances by cops. This is probably the clearest case yet recently. I'm not saying it doesn't happen proportionally more with blacks, but still. For the media it's a big sign that says "What about this guy? Why is the chatter about him so small? Why are there no protesters? Why is nobody talking about why there are no protesters?" And for hate sites like David Horowitz's "" it's a big finger in their face saying "So all cop shootings are just purposely misinterpreted by black "terrorist groups" like BLM, eh? What about this one? Are the cops in the clear here? If you admit that some cop shootings are iffy (because in this case the guy was white), then how come EVERY SINGLE case in which the victim is black, you take the cop's side??? Why are the protesters always "terrorists" in your hate rag?" And for so called "white rights" groups, where are their protests? Or better still, why aren't there protests about police brutality or trigger happy police in general (not matter the race of the victim)? (that goes for all of us).

    This one doesn't fit neatly into anybody's narrative. I think this case really shines a light on all of us.

    This is a very good article on it:

  3. Jason Taylor, my favorite TheResurgent author has another good one:

    Clinton was correct. Donald Trump is a threat to democracy, and if he loses America may someday look back on the bullet that was collectively dodged by not electing Trump.