Friday, August 12, 2016

Two Weeks After Party Convention is When Polls Become Predictive

Based on that, this is pretty good news for Hillary Clinton. The candidate leading two weeks after the convention is usually the winner. In fact they have been the winner every year since 1952.

"CANDIDATES LEADING AT THIS POINT USUALLY WIN THE ELECTION - Andrew Prokop: “We are two weeks out from the final day of the Democratic convention. And according to historical research by political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien, this is usually the time that the convention fog finally lifts and the polls become more predictive. ‘Although the convention season is the time for multiple bounces in the polls, one party ends up with an advantage when the dust clears. And this gain is a net convention bump rather than a bounce,’ Erikson and Wlezien write in their bookThe Timeline of Presidential Elections. That is, once the volatility dies down, one candidate usually emerges from the convention chaos with a durable lead. And almost always, the political scientists find, that candidate goes on to win the election….Indeed, the authors looked at general election contests going back to 1952, and found that the candidate who was in the lead two weeks after the conventions ended went on to win the popular vote every single time….[C]onventions tend to have a consistent and profoundly important impact of the type that’s hardly ever observed at any other brief phase of the campaign, even those much-hyped fall debates.” [Vox]

Obama led both in 2008 and 2012 at this point but by not as much as Hillary is leading.

This figures as the Democrats have a demographic advantage but Trump is not a generic Republican so this election is about more than simply an ideological battle as in 2012.

Romney lost by a near landslide and his party was totally unified behind him.

More proof that Trump is something much < than a generic GOPer is that a switch to a likely voter model isn't helping him as it traditionally has helped Republican candidates.

"A SHIFT TO ‘LIKELY VOTER’ MODELS ISN’T HELPING DONALD TRUMP - Steven Shepard: “Another traditional Republican advantage may be going by the wayside this year: Donald Trump, falling perilously behind Hillary Clinton in the polls, isn’t getting the standard ‘likely voter’ bump that usually boosts GOP candidates in the closing weeks of the election….Trump — viewed unfavorably by nearly two-thirds of voters — isn’t motivating enough Republican or Republican-leaning voters the way previous GOP nominees have.Polls show Clinton supporters and Democratic voters are as enthusiastic about participating in the general election as Trump backers and Republicans — if not more so. That’s a big turnaround from four years ago, when despite President Barack Obama’s overall advantage among the electorate, Republicans and voters who said they supported former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney were the more enthusiastic and motivated group….Marist College pollster Lee Miringoff credits Clinton’s performance among more-certain voters to a growing education gap: Even among white voters, Clinton has more support among the college-educated, while Trump runs better with voters who didn’t attend college. And more-educated voters, historically, vote at higher rates than less-educated voters.” [Politico]

"TRUMP AND CLINTON’S FAVORABLE RATINGS RETURN TO PRE-CONVENTION LEVELS - Frank Newport: “Americans’ views of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are almost exactly the same now as they were in early July before their party’s convention. Trump’s favorable rating became slightly more positive in the Republican convention environment, rising to 37% and matching Clinton’s for the first and only time in Gallup’s tracking. Then, as the Democratic convention was wrapping up, Clinton’s favorable rating rose to 42%, and the gap between the two candidates’ ratings expanded to 10 percentage points. These shifts in the public’s views of the two candidates were short-lived, however, and their images have now returned to where they were. Clinton is once again enjoying a modestly more positive image than Trump. Any hopes that either campaign had of using the conventions to create a major, lasting shift in Americans’ images of the candidates did not materialize.” [Gallup]

This is not exactly true. Trump's favorables are now as terrible as ever. In Gallup Hilary's favorability has slipped a little since the DNC, but she's actually at 50% for the seconds straight week with Reuters.

Look at the Huffington Post's own average and you see she's still at 43%.

Trump is now lower than ever with Reuters-which has tended to be a little more optimistic about his popularity.
He's now at 38% in Retuers, which is higher than his other polls, but he was at 43% just last week. 
Meanwhile what does Trump pay in taxes? It may well be zero.
Trump's lawyer says it would be 'malpractice' to advise releasing his tax returns.
Meanwhile, it would be malpractice by the voters to vote for someone who refused to release their tax returns. 
In other news, Mitch McConnell acknowledges he may not be Senate Majority Leader next year.
Talk about a feature not a bug. 

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