Friday, August 12, 2016

Good Night Nurse: Hillary Leads Trump 48-39 in North Carolina

She has other big leads in some supposed swing states. But that she leads by almost double digits in North Carolina says it all. Goodnight Nurse.

Sam Stein says it:


"Colorado Clinton 46, DJT 32"

"Fla. Clinton 44, DJT 39"

"N.C. Clinton 48, DJT 39"

"Va. Clinton 46,  DJT 33"


Nate Cohn:

"If Clinton's tied in Georgia and up huge in Virginia, you would expect her to be up comfortably in North Carolina."

It's also in line with Trump only up by 2 points in South Carolina.

As we noted earlier, going back to 1952, no candidate leading two weeks after the convention has failed to win the Presidency.

Nate Silver:

"Not saying those NBC/Marist polls aren't great news for Clinton. But you should expect state polls like that if she's up 7-8% nationally."

Yes, but Silver has been saying for two weeks that we need to see what the numbers are like two weeks out from the convention. Today is literally two weeks since the Friday after the end of the Dem convention.

And she is still up 7-8 points nationally. Prior to DNC, she was up 3-4 points nationally.

Harry Enten:
"Really all you need to know is Clinton has double digit leads in CO and VA here. … Them plus NH/PA means 273."

In other words, forget Florida and Ohio.

"Great job GOP primary voters. Top notch."

This was what I had pointed out to Enten, Nate Silver, et al, during the primary. The party does decide, provided it's a normal, healthy party.

That 'provided' is a vital qualifier.

Back to Enten:

"Hillary Clinton has an 87 percent chance of winning the presidency according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-only model and a 77 percent shot according to our polls-plus model. Several new national polls reinforced the picture we already had: Clinton leads Donald Trump by about 7 or 8 percentage points. We also got some new state polls, including in Florida,Iowa, Maine, New Hampshire, New York, South Carolina and Texas, and while our topline forecasts haven’t changed much, those surveys emphasized how many different paths Clinton has to victory."

Say it again, with feeling: This is why I'm a Donald Trump Democrat.

David Frum:

"Plan: put NY and NJ in play. Reality: put House of Representatives majority in play."

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