Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Is Hilary's Bounce no Longer a Bounce?

So argues Josh Marshall:

"The conventional wisdom is that you don't really know the impact of the conventions until everything settles out a week or two after the second convention. We're coming up on that threshold. And as you can see from the trend chart going back to July 1st, this is no longer just a bounce."

"At the risk of stating the obvious, a bounce is something that goes up and then comes down, at least part of the way back down. But Clinton's trend line continues to rise."

"Here's the key thing to keep in mind."

"Historically, once the tumult of the conventions has settled, the polls tend to be fairly stable. There's sometimes a closing toward the end. Gore caught up with Bush at the end of the 2000 race. But again, people seem to make basic decisions during the conventions and they're usually hard to dislodge. That seems especially the case when the margin is substantial."

"We're coming up on that period for Trump."

Political scientist types like Nate Silver, Harry Enten, and Nate Cohn have warned that you need to wait a week or two to see if the bounce holds. But Silver did admit that yesterday's Monmouth Poll showing her up by 13 was pretty impressive.

"Why was Monmouth a big deal? - Very recent - Likely voter screen helped Clinton (unusual for a Dem) - Highly-rated pollster - Clinton at 50%."

Note that she is at 50% in a four way poll. Jill Stein polled at just 2% in this poll, I'm happy to report.

So her shameful false equivalence between Hillary and Trump doesn't seem to be working. The DNC clearly brought many Bernie supporters home.

Now this week's Survey Monkey poll shows more evidence that this may be more than a bounce now.

"Hillary Clinton now holds a 10-point lead over Donald Trump, 51 percent to 41 percent, according to results from the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll."

"Clinton's double-digit lead is up from an 8-point gap last week. The 10-point margin is the biggest spread in the tracking poll since the two-way general election match-up was first compared in early May."

"Last week, Clinton's lead jumped from 1 point to 8 points following her party's convention, but the real question was whether this bounce would last. The latest tracking poll results indicate that Clinton's traction over Trump has not slipped."

"Over the past four weeks, Trump has lost support from core Republican voters. In previous weeks, the Republican nominee dominated Clinton among men. This week, however, Trump's margin over Clinton among men is only 5 points, down from a 16-point margin two weeks ago. A large gender gap in American elections is common; although Mitt Romney lost the presidential election in 2012 he still won men by 7 points, according to NBC News Exit Polls."

"The gender gap is somewhat expected, but while support among men for Trump has shrunk over the past several weeks, Clinton's support among women has widened. Clinton has consistently done better than Trump among women and this week her advantage among women is 24 points, up from a 14-point margin two weeks ago."

"Trump also regularly has an advantage among white men. Trump has been 23 points ahead of Clinton among white men over the past two weeks, 58 percent to 35 percent. But that support is down from a 31-point margin among white men in Trump's favor during the week of the Republican National Convention."

Now Trump is even losing the poorly educated.

"Voters without a college degree went from supporting Trump by a 9-point margin in the beginning of July to supporting Clinton by a 4-point margin this week. This is a very large shift. Last week's results showed voters without a college degree supported Clinton over Trump by 2 points, 47 percent to 45 percent. This week that gap has continued to widen among that group — 48 percent support Clinton and 44 percent support Trump."

Trump seems to be doing the impossible. Uniting everyone: against himself

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