Monday, August 8, 2016

In Monmouth Poll, Hillary Leads by 13; Her Unfavorability is Under 50%

Not an earth shattering fact normally but these are polarized times and media has made much of her favorability being upside down.

There has been the usual caution among political scientist types like FiveThirtyEight.

Yes, her bounce is currently holding steady they admit, but for how long can it last?

Nate Cohn earlier today:

"Clinton favorability bounce has faded a bit, per Gallup. But Trump isn't recovering--he's slipped post-DNC."

In the Gallup tracking poll this is true. But in yesterday's Washington Post poll, her favorability was at 46/52 for only a -6 net.

Now Monmouth has her at 42/49 for -7. Again, I haven't seen her beneath 50 in awhile.

As for the top line numbers-what really matters-the news is just all good today-ok there was a Utah poll that showed him up by 12. But we saw the Georgia poll that she leads by 7-in another last week she led by 4 in GA. She leads by 12 according to a Virginia poll releases Sunday. She was up 10 in another PA poll today.

Now a 13 point lead in Monmouth. Not only is this another with her up by double digits, but she is at 50% in a four way race.

"The Monmouth poll showing Clinton+13, 50-37 is a *four way* race, with Johnson at 7, Stein 2. I think that's the first 4 way with Clinton=50."

No wonder the Trumpkins are already unskewing polls.

Cohn thinks she may be leading in South Carolina now:

Now Trump is losing Andrea Peyser. Last week the NY Post had two straight days of naked pics of Melania.

HT: Tom Brown.


Nate Silver:

"Our model *really* liked that Monmouth poll for Clinton. She's now up to 79% in polls-plus and 87% in polls-only."

"Why was Monmouth a big deal? - Very recent - Likely voter screen helped Clinton (unusual for a Dem) - Highly-rated pollster - Clinton at 50%."


  1. Mike, you might like this. Sumner got into an exchange on a recent post with Bob Murphy about people being forced to bake gay-wedding cakes. Bob put up a couple of posts in response. In particular one was about having consistent libertarian values, and in particular why it's not wrong for businesses to refuse to bake gay-wedding cakes. He also had a couple of other hypothetical examples to support his case. I left an extreme example in the comments wherein only I have a vaccine for an extremely deadly pandemic sweeping the Earth, but I don't like people and don't allow anyone but me to use it. Anyway, one guy was game and explained I didn't know anything about libertarian philosophy. However, I did ask him a follow on question that you might like:

    1. Granted my examples are ridiculous, but it's fun using all the libertarian purist catch phrases in them in fun and exciting new ways:

      "initiate violence"
      "property rights"
      "not hurting anyone"
      "jackbooted collectivist thugs"

      Haha, I actually cracked myself up writing that.