Friday, August 12, 2016

Is Dem House Control Within Reach? Xavier Becarra Says Yes

It does remain a loss shot, and the Dems didn't recruit top candidates like they did in 2006. This is because they never anticipated Donald Trump and had now idea the House conceivably could be up for grabs this year.

Still Xavier Becarra is optimistic-it is his job to be so.

"Rep. Xavier Becerra (D., Calif.), who has been criss-crossing the country to help support Democratic challengers, predicted Democrats will win the 30 seats needed to regain control of the House if Republican Donald Trump continues to stumble."

“If this is a change election, the sky’s the limit,” Mr. Becerra said in an interview. “We can get to our 30 for sure.”

"The Democratic Conference chair, who occupies a safe Los Angeles seat, traveled to the western suburbs of Minneapolis, where he joined State Sen. Terri Bonoff for several campaign events in her uphill bid to unseat popular Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen."

"Ms. Bonoff is perhaps the highest-profile example of a “Trump recruit” – a Democratic candidate who decided to join a congressional contest late this year, after Mr. Trump’s nomination became all but certain. She declared her candidacy on April 7, not leaving much time to build name ID or a fundraising haul to rival Mr. Paulsen’s $3.2 million war chest."

"The seat is rated a “lean Republican” district, according to the Cook Political report, but the Democratic Congressional Campaign committee – House Democrats’ campaign arm – is hoping that Donald Trump’s massive unpopularity will drag Mr. Paulsen down with him."

Again, the Dems are still not favored to take back the House outright though they are favored to take back a significant amount of seats.

"Non-partisan analysts say it is extremely unlikely that House Democrats will win back all 30 seats needed, and an analysis of their recruiting efforts shows that the party struggled to attract top-tier candidates in several districts it could have claimed in a wave."

"The betting-market watcher Predictwise currently gives Democrats a 16% chance of winning back a majority."

"Still, Democrats will almost certainly win back seats – with most estimates ranging from 10 to 20 pick-ups in November. A look at Mr. Becerra’s travel schedule highlights the districts where Democrats think they can win if anti-Trump sentiment successfully trickles down to congressional candidates."

With Hillary leading in the high single digits who knows what's possible?

"While in Minnesota, Mr. Becerra also campaigned alongside Angie Craig, a Democrat running in a neighboring district who faces a shock-jock DJ, Jason Lewis, as her Republican rival. Other stops have included competitive seats in Florida, California, Illinois, Nevada, and New York."

"And though he hasn’t yet traveled to their districts, Mr. Becerra also highlighted several Republicans widely considered safe, whom he thinks face trouble if anti-Trump sentiment grows. They include Mia love of Utah and Darrell Issa of California, the former chairman of the House Oversight committee."

“Can we win that one?” Mr. Becerra asked of Mr. Issa’s seat. “I don’t know – Darrell is the richest member of congress. But we may reach a point where money makes no difference.”

One thing that's clear: Don't worry about Trump 'pivoting' anytime soon.

"Donald Trump Laments Sliding Polls While Maintaining His Provocative Approach."

Failing that, Hillary and Paul Ryan conceivably could work together.

Ryan would permanently suspend the Hastert Rule-and the even more noxious Boehner Rule-and things would actually pass the House and get signed into law. 

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