Saturday, August 13, 2016

Hillary is Now Even Leading LA Times Poll, 46-42

This poll has had a notorious Trump house effect so that she now leads in it by 4 today says a lot.

The RealClearPolitics average now has her at a 6.8% lead and the average has probably been dragged down somewhat by the LA Times and UPI/C polls.

For some reason these polls have show a consistent Trump house effect. Reuters is now showing the same, whereas, previously it had shown a clear Hillary effect. Reuters used to show her consistently  with leads bigger than the averages and now post convention it has shown her consistently with leads smaller than the averages.

This is due to them changing their methodology. So they are now erring in the other direction.

But that Hillary is now up by 4 in the LA Times tracking poll is notable. She only led by 1 the previous day which suggests maybe she's got another bump-and Trump has another dip. At the end of the day what matters is not the absolute number in each and every poll but the trend.

Remember she trailed by 7 in the LA tracking poll on July 28. So she is up 12 points since then. It's beginning to look like her bounce is permanent.

In other news, Trump is going to campaign very hard in Connecticut. Perfect as he doesn't have a prayer there. No Republican does.

Trump’s run at blue Connecticut

Struggling where he should be leading, the GOP nominee diverts to a state that Republicans do not win.

"Donald Trump’s poll numbers are faltering in deep-red states from South Carolina to Georgia, his organization is a mess in perhaps the most important county in Ohio, and he admits that he has a “tremendous problem” in Utah, which hasn’t gone Democratic since 1964."

"And yet, on Saturday, Trump is hosting a rally in Fairfield County, Conn., a county that Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama by 11 percentage points, in a state that hasn’t voted Republican since 1988."

"It’s a move that is flummoxing and infuriating Republicans who believe Trump should be spending time and resources in winnable states, not in a place that few consider to be competitive."

“At this point, Florida looks in trouble, North Carolina looks in trouble, they don’t even know who their people are in Ohio,” said Charlie Harper, a prominent conservative writer who runs a think tank in Georgia, where Trump is sliding in the polls. “He can go have lunch in Connecticut and be home for supper, but the map is changing rapidly in the opposite direction. Hillary Clinton is not going to move in to defend Connecticut just because Trump went there.”

"It’s unlikely she’ll need to, given the strong Democratic bent of the state, which has a Democratic governor, an entirely Democratic congressional delegation and voted for Obama by 18 percentage points in 2012. Former GOP Rep. Chris Shays of Connecticut has also recently endorsed her over Trump."

Read more:

Trump's answer is probably 'I'm not a politician. A politician would worry about that.'

As Sumner says, if you're not a politician, why run for President?

"Some professions look really easy, even to outsiders. Others look really hard. In fact, most are difficult for outsiders. Consider the following imaginary remarks:

1. It’s not my fault the patient died; I’m not a brain surgeon.

2. It’s not my fault that my client got the electric chair; I’m not an attorney.

3. It’s not my fault that I missed the game winning shot; I’m not a basketball player.

"My response would be, “If you are not a brain surgeon, then don’t do brain surgery”. Ditto for attorneys and NBA basketball players. And if you aren’t a skilled politician, then don’t do politics. And for God’s sake, don’t get your apprenticeship by running for President."

"Some people will argue that Eisenhower was not a politician. Nonsense. He had not been elected to public office, but he had extensive political experience at the very highest levels of government. Trump has none, and it shows."

Trump is already making excuses, in case he loses. He says it won’t be his fault, as he’s not a politician.

There’s a reason that we usually nominate politicians to be presidential candidates, it’s tough when your very first job is in a field that you know nothing about, even more so when it is the most difficult job in the world."

David Plouffe:

The most important decision a Presidential campaign makes is the allocation of the candidate's time. Trump in CT tonight. Says it all."

When you look at the mayhem his campaign is causing, sure, what damage could he do in the most powerful office in the world?

No comments:

Post a Comment