For now the media is going to be sympathetic to Bernie's narrative that everything has changed after Tuesday.
He won by 2 points in Michigan-to be technical, under 2 points-and now he's going to win by 2 points everywhere.
And there's the problem. He can win by 2 points everywhere. We have had 21 primaries so far. And she has a 200 delegate lead. So through 21 primaries she's won by an average of 20 points.
How does Bernie make that up if he wins the last 29 contests by an average of 2 points?
We hear that now that he's won Michigan he wins Ohio as well. Maybe. Maybe not. He could win that by 2 points and say lose Illinois by 2 points.
That's possible. But even if it happens it won't get him any closer to the nomination. He trails by 650 delegates. She with 1228 delegates is now over 50 percent of the way to her 2382.
So when you look at next Tuesday's big day, let's imagine a positive scenario for Bernie. You have lots of delegates up for grabs. Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina.
Bernie is basically conceding Florida and NC. Indeed, a guy who can't even bring himself to say Fidel Castro was a dictator, will have a hard time in Florida. Real Clear Politics has her up an average of 2 to 1 or 32 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
I know, now the narrative is that polls are always wrong. Actually that's far from true. Michigan was wrong. Most of the GOP polls on Tuesday were fairly accurate. And for the Dems, Mississippi was accurate as was SC, Alabama, etc.
But whatever, let's say she only wins Florida by 20 points. No one, including Bernie, denies she will win big there. If she wins by just 20 that would give her another 50 delegate win over him as the state is worth 250 delegates-so she'd get about 150 and he'd get 100.
The state is worth 249 but I'm rounding up.
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
That brings her lead in pledged delegates to 250 and leaves her with 1378 delegates or 57 percent of the way just based on her Florida win-which may even be bigger.
Then she wins NC by a similar amount-he's conceded NC as well as Florida as Southern votes don't count-and after all the election is in 5 days, how do you catch up in 5 states in 5 days?
That's worth 121 delegates so she wins 60 percent there, it leaves her with another 30 delegate win over The Bern. Now her lead in pledged delegates over him is 280 and she has a total delegate count of 1478 or 62 percent of the way to 2382.
Let's say his trade demonization campaign is so successful and the world so shaken by his close win in Michigan that he gets a close win also in Ohio and Illinois, and Missouri. Those states are worth 159,182, and 84 respectively.
But a 2 point win in each-a result that is very optimistic at this point-might change the narrative but do nothing for him in terms of math. When you factor in super delegates it probably even leaves her with more delegates in each.
Regardless, they both end up with roughly an even split in delegates, a la Michigan. So she gets about 80, 91, and 42 respectively. Add that up and she gets 213 more delegates even in this narrative changing epoch.
Add that to the 1478 she has after 20 point wins in NC and Florida, and she still ends up with almost 1700 delegates(1691).
I'm using very optimistic assumptions that he really wins all three of these states. But even if this happens, she still ends up being over 70 percent of the way there. So I think what's fair to say is that even a very good night leaves her with roughly 1700 delegates and 70 percent of the way there.
I know, math is boring. Momentum is what matters. If only this was how winning were measured.
He won by 2 points in Michigan-to be technical, under 2 points-and now he's going to win by 2 points everywhere.
And there's the problem. He can win by 2 points everywhere. We have had 21 primaries so far. And she has a 200 delegate lead. So through 21 primaries she's won by an average of 20 points.
How does Bernie make that up if he wins the last 29 contests by an average of 2 points?
We hear that now that he's won Michigan he wins Ohio as well. Maybe. Maybe not. He could win that by 2 points and say lose Illinois by 2 points.
That's possible. But even if it happens it won't get him any closer to the nomination. He trails by 650 delegates. She with 1228 delegates is now over 50 percent of the way to her 2382.
So when you look at next Tuesday's big day, let's imagine a positive scenario for Bernie. You have lots of delegates up for grabs. Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina.
Bernie is basically conceding Florida and NC. Indeed, a guy who can't even bring himself to say Fidel Castro was a dictator, will have a hard time in Florida. Real Clear Politics has her up an average of 2 to 1 or 32 points.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
I know, now the narrative is that polls are always wrong. Actually that's far from true. Michigan was wrong. Most of the GOP polls on Tuesday were fairly accurate. And for the Dems, Mississippi was accurate as was SC, Alabama, etc.
But whatever, let's say she only wins Florida by 20 points. No one, including Bernie, denies she will win big there. If she wins by just 20 that would give her another 50 delegate win over him as the state is worth 250 delegates-so she'd get about 150 and he'd get 100.
The state is worth 249 but I'm rounding up.
http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-presidential-primary-schedule-calendar/
That brings her lead in pledged delegates to 250 and leaves her with 1378 delegates or 57 percent of the way just based on her Florida win-which may even be bigger.
Then she wins NC by a similar amount-he's conceded NC as well as Florida as Southern votes don't count-and after all the election is in 5 days, how do you catch up in 5 states in 5 days?
That's worth 121 delegates so she wins 60 percent there, it leaves her with another 30 delegate win over The Bern. Now her lead in pledged delegates over him is 280 and she has a total delegate count of 1478 or 62 percent of the way to 2382.
Let's say his trade demonization campaign is so successful and the world so shaken by his close win in Michigan that he gets a close win also in Ohio and Illinois, and Missouri. Those states are worth 159,182, and 84 respectively.
But a 2 point win in each-a result that is very optimistic at this point-might change the narrative but do nothing for him in terms of math. When you factor in super delegates it probably even leaves her with more delegates in each.
Regardless, they both end up with roughly an even split in delegates, a la Michigan. So she gets about 80, 91, and 42 respectively. Add that up and she gets 213 more delegates even in this narrative changing epoch.
Add that to the 1478 she has after 20 point wins in NC and Florida, and she still ends up with almost 1700 delegates(1691).
I'm using very optimistic assumptions that he really wins all three of these states. But even if this happens, she still ends up being over 70 percent of the way there. So I think what's fair to say is that even a very good night leaves her with roughly 1700 delegates and 70 percent of the way there.
I know, math is boring. Momentum is what matters. If only this was how winning were measured.
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