Some polls have suggested it's a nontrivial amount. I was struck by this passage in Clare Malone's' attempt to fathom the Trump supporters.
"I’d seen glints and glimmers of his wide swath of support — the man in New Hampshire who was following Trump around the country, hawking merchandise; the friendly middle-aged women in Iowa who just liked his style; the Oklahoma couple at a Bernie Sanders rally who, after a few minutes of pleasant chitchat about Sanders, started talking to me about their deep admiration for and likely support of Trump. But the thesis was still missing for me: Why him? Why these people?"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-donald-trump/
There are a lot of similarities between Bernie and Trump. No, Bernie is not running on blatant anti immigrant racism but then, his past suggests he was always at least somewhat ambivalent about immigration and suspects that Latino immigrants may take jobs from Americans.
https://medium.com/@DoloresHuerta/on-immigration-bernie-sanders-is-not-who-he-says-he-is-b79980adff6a
Beyond the blatant racism of Trump, there are some striking similarities:
1. Both are rabidly anti free trade deals and want to renegotiate trade deals we've already entered years ago.
Trump's China bashing sounds a little more racially based but Bernie does promise to end most favored nation status with China-a move that would send back relations between our two countries many years.
2. Both also talk a lot about campaign finance. Ironically, while Bernie does a lot of demonizing of money in politics, he is raising the most money of anyone now through mostly small donations-though he does have a super PAC, though he keeps claiming otherwise.
But what his experience might suggest is not so much that money in politics is pure evil as that it's a neutral tool that can do good and bad.
After all, he certainly doesn't consider the money he is spending to be evil-as it's from small donors. But then, if the good or evil of donations is just who it's from then why is it evil if progressive donors with more money contribute more? Why is a larger donation automatically evil?
I mean, take the Sierra Club. Bernie agrees with them on climate chance, to be sure. But they over years of donations have a lot of money to spend for candidates who support fighting climate chance. Is money from them now evil because they have been successful in raising money and public consciousness?
Ironically, it's been the billionaire Donald Trump who has actually been successful in actually truly having a chance at his party's nomination while spending very little money. As a billionaire, ironically he''s spent the least money on his campaign and Bernie has spent the most.
3. You can't help but notice that both Trump and Bernie's supporters are mostly white. Trump blatantly is running as a kind of White Lives Matter candidate but Bernie's support is predominantly white and the only states he's consistently won in are white, rural states.
How many Bernie supporters vote for Trump? I don't know. I wouldn't assume most but some might as polls have suggested. But I do think that one way or the other, this election is going to lead to some interesting realignments.
"I’d seen glints and glimmers of his wide swath of support — the man in New Hampshire who was following Trump around the country, hawking merchandise; the friendly middle-aged women in Iowa who just liked his style; the Oklahoma couple at a Bernie Sanders rally who, after a few minutes of pleasant chitchat about Sanders, started talking to me about their deep admiration for and likely support of Trump. But the thesis was still missing for me: Why him? Why these people?"
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-donald-trump/
There are a lot of similarities between Bernie and Trump. No, Bernie is not running on blatant anti immigrant racism but then, his past suggests he was always at least somewhat ambivalent about immigration and suspects that Latino immigrants may take jobs from Americans.
https://medium.com/@DoloresHuerta/on-immigration-bernie-sanders-is-not-who-he-says-he-is-b79980adff6a
Beyond the blatant racism of Trump, there are some striking similarities:
1. Both are rabidly anti free trade deals and want to renegotiate trade deals we've already entered years ago.
Trump's China bashing sounds a little more racially based but Bernie does promise to end most favored nation status with China-a move that would send back relations between our two countries many years.
2. Both also talk a lot about campaign finance. Ironically, while Bernie does a lot of demonizing of money in politics, he is raising the most money of anyone now through mostly small donations-though he does have a super PAC, though he keeps claiming otherwise.
But what his experience might suggest is not so much that money in politics is pure evil as that it's a neutral tool that can do good and bad.
After all, he certainly doesn't consider the money he is spending to be evil-as it's from small donors. But then, if the good or evil of donations is just who it's from then why is it evil if progressive donors with more money contribute more? Why is a larger donation automatically evil?
I mean, take the Sierra Club. Bernie agrees with them on climate chance, to be sure. But they over years of donations have a lot of money to spend for candidates who support fighting climate chance. Is money from them now evil because they have been successful in raising money and public consciousness?
Ironically, it's been the billionaire Donald Trump who has actually been successful in actually truly having a chance at his party's nomination while spending very little money. As a billionaire, ironically he''s spent the least money on his campaign and Bernie has spent the most.
3. You can't help but notice that both Trump and Bernie's supporters are mostly white. Trump blatantly is running as a kind of White Lives Matter candidate but Bernie's support is predominantly white and the only states he's consistently won in are white, rural states.
How many Bernie supporters vote for Trump? I don't know. I wouldn't assume most but some might as polls have suggested. But I do think that one way or the other, this election is going to lead to some interesting realignments.
In a Hillary Trump matchup the only reason I would support Hillary is because of her experience on the world stage. Trump is a keg of dynamite and you never know what he might say to someone else, but in terms of what they might really push HARD for domestically, I give Trump an edge to be frank.
ReplyDeleteTrump doesn't give a shit if Grover Norquist puts him on some bad list, would scoff at some billionaire hedge funder whining about his taxes going up and would probably have little reluctance to call most private health insurers "scam artists" (which they are). Hillary is still a little too close to all the ways of the world to be able to effectively disrupt them. She has participated closely in the creation of the many boondoggles and power grabs we have. I believe she is a "good guy" for the most part but she IS the Washington culture, part neoliberal and part neocon.
I admit that in some ways Trump might hit her in similar ways that Bernie Sanders has.
DeleteBut Norquist is totally Republican. Hillary is not for the Supply Side ideology and will raise the taxes of the rich.
Trump at least is running on huge tax cuts for the rich-Norquist praised it. Though he might just be doing this to get through the GOP primary
DeleteIn the past he was for a wealth tax cut.
But on social issues like abortion and voting rights-and the future of the SJC, it's a very clear choice for me
I think that the core supporters of Trump are older folks who feel the American dream was taken form them after they neared the end of or are at the end of their working lives and Bernie supporters believe its being taken from them before they even get started........ and to a large extent they are both correct. So there is room for some of them to band together but it is unlikely. The Trump supporters mostly just want the kids to shut up and get to work funding their retirement !!
ReplyDeleteI think there is something to that. I have heard of polls where a certain number of Bernie supporters say they would go to Trump-7 percent.
DeleteThere is the quote above of the couple at a Bernie event who are going to vote for Trump.
But I agree they are not the same and I think your distinction has something to it
Here is a Slate piece about whether Bernie supporters will support Hillary. I make no assumptions though her ace in the hole is she has the Obama Coalition.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/03/24/bernie_sanders_supporters_in_la_say_they_ll_back_clinton.html
I don't see enough Bernie supporters going to Trump to overcome the other GOPers who will hold their noses and pull for Hillary.
ReplyDeleteOne thing about establishment conservatives, they love the status quo. They created for the most part the status quo. Trump is way more disquieting to them than Hillary. The worst thing they fear with Hillary is tax increases, which they can always fight and claw back most of them. What do they fear most with Donald Trump? They have no frikking idea how things will be! Its that complete lack of knowing what they will get that terrifies them. Hillary is a known commodity and of one thing she gives them what they really need most..... a scapegoat in the govt. Conservatives need to be able scapegoat the govt..... its one reason why they don't do well in political leadership I think. They are more natural at being able to criticize the govt as the source of our ills, they cant do that when its one of theirs.
Yes, I totally agree that they prefer being in opposition than in government. I've argued that this goes all the way back to the New Deal.
ReplyDeleteSince then they have always been "Nixonian.' Nixon always felt he lost in 1960 because he represented the incumbent government.
In many ways Hillary is for all intents and purposes Obama's VP candidate in 2016.