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Monday, March 28, 2016

Trump Leading in Votes but What About Delegates?

He currently needs 53 percent of the remaing 944 delegates to reach 1237. It's doable but not a cinch.

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker

It's less that every vote counts as every delegate counts. This could be a real disadvantage against the ultra organized Ted Cruz who deeply understands the system.

While some populists might think it's a scandal, you can win the most votes and fail to win the most delegates. What is Trump doing about it? Would you believe he's put Ben Carson on the case?

"Trump’s delegate danger."

"He’s beating Cruz at the ballot, but he’s months behind in the battle to make those wins count at the convention."

"Ben Carson is hitting the trail for Donald Trump this weekend, but don’t expect to see him at any rallies or town halls. In fact, don’t expect to see him at all — unless you’re a North Dakota Republican insider."

"Carson is flying into Fargo to huddle with the state’s GOP activists, who are convening to elect 25 delegates to the Republican National Convention. They’re a small bloc of the 2,472 delegates who will ultimately pick the party’s presidential nominee when they meet in Cleveland in July, and Carson is meeting with them this weekend to make sure at least a few of them pick Trump when they get there."

"Carson’s trip is the Trump campaign’s highest profile play yet for delegates, and it comes as the mogul arrives at a perilous moment: he may be lapping Ted Cruz at the ballot box, but Cruz is outmaneuvering him in the quieter — and equally crucial — hunt for loyal delegates."

"Trump is virtually certain to arrive in Cleveland with millions more votes than Cruz or John Kasich, but he could still fall short of clinching the nomination outright. That would throw the contest to the delegates — and if Cruz packs the arena with supporters, Trump could watch the nomination slip away from him. And he knows it."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/donald-trump-delegates-republican-convention-221274#ixzz44CA1EB00

At least he knows the risks. One response by him is to throw Cruz some shade and suggest that Lyin' Ted is trying to steal the nomination.

“I have a guy going around trying to steal people's delegates. This is supposed to be America, a free America,” he said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.” “You know, welcome to the Republican Party. What's going on in the Republican Party is a disgrace. I have so many more votes and so many more delegates. And, frankly, whoever at the end, whoever has the most votes and the most delegates should be the nominee.”

"Trump’s palpable frustration is a sign of how rapidly the hunt for delegates is overtaking the primary itself as the most critical battle in the 2016 GOP nominating process."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/donald-trump-delegates-republican-convention-221274#ixzz44CAgCx7V

Still, as much fun as that is, he should also be talking to the RNC.

"While Trump cries foul, Cruz is racking up support from prospective delegates across the country, even in states where Trump dominated the primary. From Louisiana to Georgia to South Carolina — all Trump victories — delegates and delegate candidates are lining up to back Cruz, who’s romped among the Republican activist class that tends to control this part of the process. South Dakota’s delegates and early contests in Iowa also appear to favor Cruz."

“I've been telling the Trump campaign for eight months now that they're making a mistake by not reaching out to RNC members to establish relationships,” said one South Carolina Republican participating in the state’s delegate selection process. “He hasn't done any of that. ... That's usually the kind of thing that presidential candidates do.”

"None of this matters much if Trump grabs the 1,237 pledged delegates he’d likely need to win a majority vote on the convention’s first ballot. But if he doesn’t, the convention could go to further rounds of voting where many delegates are free to vote for a candidate of their choosing — and that’s where Trump could run into trouble."

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/donald-trump-delegates-republican-convention-221274#ixzz44CFC9yua

That's the key. He needs to win outright. If he's short it will be harder than for most GOP candidates for him to get support from unbound delegates. But it also matters how short of 1237. If it's 20 or 30, then he's still got a good claim but if it's 200 or 300, that's another story.

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