Bernie always says that if there's a record turnout he wins. Tonight there was huge turnout in Arizona, and Hillary won going away.
"So it's looking like a record turn out in AZ & Hillary Clinton is leading almost 2:1...another Bernie Sanders myth busted. #AZPrimary"
https://twitter.com/booksncheese/status/712477808086425600
Arizona kind of went exactly like we imagined it on both the Dem and GOP side.
Harry Enten:
"Tonight’s results pretty much capture the Democratic side perfectly. Clinton is winning the state (Arizona) that has more delegates than the other states voting today combined, and she’s doing it by a wide margin. At the end of the day, it’s winning delegates, not states that matters. Clinton is doing so, which is why she’s the prohibitive favorite to be the nominee."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/
Bernie at this point is desperate to hang his hat on anything for 'momentum'-he was even boasting about winning Americans abroad yesterday which nets him about 5 delegates-not counting super delegates.
Based on the delegate totals so far tonight this pushes her up to 1670 with Bernie at 886. Again, the target is 2383.
He will try to spin tonight as a win if he wins Utah and Idaho as expected but those states together are worth just 64 delegates compared with the 85 for Arizona. No matter what she should leave the night with a bigger delegate lead.
On Trump, here is Nate Silver actually admitting Trump's performance tonight is impressive:
"Here’s part of the reason I think Trump’s apparently easy win in Arizona is important. I know Arizona looked like a good state for Trump all along. And I know we’re all into the delegate math here at FiveThirtyEight. It’s our thing."
"But the delegate math suggests that Trump’s quest for 1,237 delegates could be close. He might just get over the finish line, or he might finish 10, 50, 100 delegates short. Or maybe something goes wrong and he finishes 200 delegates short instead, in which case he’d have a lot more work left to do.
"To the extent Trump doesn’t clinch outright, however, and needs help from unpledged delegates or even delegates on the convention floor, there’s going to be a question of whether Trump has a mandate from Republican voters. It’s not so hard to deny him the nomination if everything is a big mess. It’s harder if Trump’s winning the strong majority of high-profile states, no one else is close, and Trump is just happening to come up a few delegates short. In my view, Cruz not only has to keep Trump below 1,237 — he probably has to create some real doubt about what Republican voters really want. He didn’t do that in Arizona tonight."
I've also argued that it's not just a case of finishing beneath 1237 but how far beneath? If he finishes a couple of delegates short, it's hard to argue he doesn't have the support of the party.
Another perfect night for a Trump Democrat.
P.S. Bernie again showed money isn't everything tonight as he outspent her in the state. This has been the election where money hasn't been the difference maker per se. Or at least it's been complicated.
Meanwhile, expect some angry Diaries at Daily KOS as Markos Moulitsas-the blog owner-is telling Bernie it's been fun but it's over.
http://thehill.com/opinion/markos-moulitsas/273972-markos-moulitsas-sanders-time-to-bow-out
"So it's looking like a record turn out in AZ & Hillary Clinton is leading almost 2:1...another Bernie Sanders myth busted. #AZPrimary"
https://twitter.com/booksncheese/status/712477808086425600
Arizona kind of went exactly like we imagined it on both the Dem and GOP side.
Harry Enten:
"Tonight’s results pretty much capture the Democratic side perfectly. Clinton is winning the state (Arizona) that has more delegates than the other states voting today combined, and she’s doing it by a wide margin. At the end of the day, it’s winning delegates, not states that matters. Clinton is doing so, which is why she’s the prohibitive favorite to be the nominee."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-22-primaries-arizona-utah-presidential-election-2016/
Bernie at this point is desperate to hang his hat on anything for 'momentum'-he was even boasting about winning Americans abroad yesterday which nets him about 5 delegates-not counting super delegates.
Based on the delegate totals so far tonight this pushes her up to 1670 with Bernie at 886. Again, the target is 2383.
He will try to spin tonight as a win if he wins Utah and Idaho as expected but those states together are worth just 64 delegates compared with the 85 for Arizona. No matter what she should leave the night with a bigger delegate lead.
On Trump, here is Nate Silver actually admitting Trump's performance tonight is impressive:
"Here’s part of the reason I think Trump’s apparently easy win in Arizona is important. I know Arizona looked like a good state for Trump all along. And I know we’re all into the delegate math here at FiveThirtyEight. It’s our thing."
"But the delegate math suggests that Trump’s quest for 1,237 delegates could be close. He might just get over the finish line, or he might finish 10, 50, 100 delegates short. Or maybe something goes wrong and he finishes 200 delegates short instead, in which case he’d have a lot more work left to do.
"To the extent Trump doesn’t clinch outright, however, and needs help from unpledged delegates or even delegates on the convention floor, there’s going to be a question of whether Trump has a mandate from Republican voters. It’s not so hard to deny him the nomination if everything is a big mess. It’s harder if Trump’s winning the strong majority of high-profile states, no one else is close, and Trump is just happening to come up a few delegates short. In my view, Cruz not only has to keep Trump below 1,237 — he probably has to create some real doubt about what Republican voters really want. He didn’t do that in Arizona tonight."
I've also argued that it's not just a case of finishing beneath 1237 but how far beneath? If he finishes a couple of delegates short, it's hard to argue he doesn't have the support of the party.
Another perfect night for a Trump Democrat.
P.S. Bernie again showed money isn't everything tonight as he outspent her in the state. This has been the election where money hasn't been the difference maker per se. Or at least it's been complicated.
Meanwhile, expect some angry Diaries at Daily KOS as Markos Moulitsas-the blog owner-is telling Bernie it's been fun but it's over.
http://thehill.com/opinion/markos-moulitsas/273972-markos-moulitsas-sanders-time-to-bow-out
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