The media is trying to see the absurd claim of the Bernie team that they have 'momentum' based on their blowouts in some white caucus states. The idea is silly. When Hillary won by almost 50 in South Carolina that 'mometum' didn't stop Bernie from winning Washington by almost 50.
There is no 'momentum' in primaries, just good states demographically and bad states demographically. Ultimately it's not about anything but delegates. HRC has an over 700 delegate lead over the Bern (1712-1004).
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker
Everything else is noise.
Today there is some noise about a national poll that shows Bernie within six points. Two things about that.
1. First of all that this is being sold as big news just shows the usual cherrypicking. There was a Bloomberg poll last week that showed Bernie up by one point-yes one. It's about the second poll this entire primary which has shown him up-there was a Fox News poll where he lead by three in late February.
"The truth is, after April 26, there just simply is not enough real estate left for Sen. Sanders to close the commanding lead that we've built," Benenson said. "We expect to come out of that day with a pledged and total delegate lead that will make clear who the nominee will be, and that it's going to be Hillary Clinton."
There is no 'momentum' in primaries, just good states demographically and bad states demographically. Ultimately it's not about anything but delegates. HRC has an over 700 delegate lead over the Bern (1712-1004).
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker
Everything else is noise.
Today there is some noise about a national poll that shows Bernie within six points. Two things about that.
1. First of all that this is being sold as big news just shows the usual cherrypicking. There was a Bloomberg poll last week that showed Bernie up by one point-yes one. It's about the second poll this entire primary which has shown him up-there was a Fox News poll where he lead by three in late February.
"Clinton leads Sanders 49 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent saying they do not know. The former secretary of state has dropped by six points in the survey since the beginning of March, while the Vermont senator has gone up by 5 points in support. In the weekly tracking survey conducted between Feb. 29 and March 6, for example, Clinton led Sanders by 17 points—55 percent to 38 percent."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/poll-who-is-winning-2016-221324#ixzz44JtbJvFu
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/poll-who-is-winning-2016-221324#ixzz44JtbJvFu
So what? So I guess, the answer is 'momentum.' But this is cherrypicking. There are other polls which show a different picture. For instance, that Fox News poll that had Bernie up by three? The most recent edition showed her back up by 13. This is recent. Similarly, Quinnipiac which had Bernie within two points in February now show her up by 12.
So while Bernie is up in the Survey Monkey poll he's down in the Quinnipiac and Fox News polls. The punchline? As Nate Silver and Harry Enten, etc. say: focus on the averages. The averages have been fairly rage bound the last few months.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
And what do you know? A new PPP poll that was taken recently has her up by 18. There is no momentum just fluctuations.
2. But the bigger point is why give so much attention to national polls at this stage of the race? This is the larger point that the Nates and the Harrys would argue. Considering that the majority of states have now voted, why would you call those states and pol them as part of a national poll?
Why not check the actual results? There she clearly has a strong 2.6 million vote lead or a lead of about 18 percent.
Finally the words of David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager in 2008.
"President Obama’s former campaign manager on Monday argued that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has no hope of defeating Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination."
“I believe Hillary Clinton has zero chance of not being the Democratic nominee,” David Plouffe wrote on Medium. "The Clinton lead is almost 300 in pledged delegates. And over 700 in total delegates."
"Clinton will end the primary, even if she underperforms the rest of the way, with a pledged delegate lead greater than Barack Obama’s in 2008.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/274472-obama-campaign-manager-zero-chance-clinton-isnt-nominee
She has a very large margin of error the rest of the way to underperform. She has 1712 of the needed 2383 delegates. There are 2149 remaining so she can win just 33 percent of those or 671 delegates and still win.
So while Bernie is up in the Survey Monkey poll he's down in the Quinnipiac and Fox News polls. The punchline? As Nate Silver and Harry Enten, etc. say: focus on the averages. The averages have been fairly rage bound the last few months.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
And what do you know? A new PPP poll that was taken recently has her up by 18. There is no momentum just fluctuations.
2. But the bigger point is why give so much attention to national polls at this stage of the race? This is the larger point that the Nates and the Harrys would argue. Considering that the majority of states have now voted, why would you call those states and pol them as part of a national poll?
Why not check the actual results? There she clearly has a strong 2.6 million vote lead or a lead of about 18 percent.
Finally the words of David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager in 2008.
"President Obama’s former campaign manager on Monday argued that Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has no hope of defeating Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination."
“I believe Hillary Clinton has zero chance of not being the Democratic nominee,” David Plouffe wrote on Medium. "The Clinton lead is almost 300 in pledged delegates. And over 700 in total delegates."
"Clinton will end the primary, even if she underperforms the rest of the way, with a pledged delegate lead greater than Barack Obama’s in 2008.”
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/274472-obama-campaign-manager-zero-chance-clinton-isnt-nominee
She has a very large margin of error the rest of the way to underperform. She has 1712 of the needed 2383 delegates. There are 2149 remaining so she can win just 33 percent of those or 671 delegates and still win.
As her campaign rightly argues today, this race should be all but over on April 26.
By then she will easily have over 2100 delegates or 88 percent of those needed. And of course there are still an outstanding 260 super delegates which she will get the majority of-say she gets 240.
By then a number of them will feel they can safely go from undecided to her column.
"On a conference call with reporters Monday, Hillary Clinton's chief strategist, Joel Benenson, said the former secretary of state will have expanded her delegate lead enough by the end of April to be the clear winner of the primary contest over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Benenson predicted that the upcoming Wisconsin primary, on April 5, would be close. But after that, Clinton is expecting victories in the delegate-rich states of New York on April 19 and Pennsylvania on April 26."
"The truth is, after April 26, there just simply is not enough real estate left for Sen. Sanders to close the commanding lead that we've built," Benenson said. "We expect to come out of that day with a pledged and total delegate lead that will make clear who the nominee will be, and that it's going to be Hillary Clinton."
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/03/clinton-camp-expects-lock-down-nomination-end-april
So if you hear any Berners or pundits claim that Bernie has momentum you know based on Washington and Utah or because of one cherrypicked poll, it's gibberish. Indeed, the Berners on Twitter are starting to truly be comical. They honestly believe they have the momentum and that a discussion like this is nothing but #scaretactics.
That's what some Berner told me this morning. The only person it scares are Bernie and his Berners as they fear when the discussion veers back to reality.
The Bernie folks don't get it. At this point their shtick is just #comic relief.
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