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Saturday, March 26, 2016

Today's Caucuses are a Day to Remember it's About Delegates not States

We already know the Bernie and Tad Devine spin. He won all three states after blowouts in Utah and Idaho and his campaign has all the momentum. Surely when the super delegates see this, they'll all turn to Bernie.

We'll see how much the media plays to this meme. Rawstory wars of a coming war between the Bernie fans and political reality:

"All-out warfare is about to break out between Bernie Sanders’ supporters and the political press."

"Mark my words: We’re going to face a very ugly few weeks on social media. The nastiness will begin this weekend and last through April 26, when five states will hold primaries with a big delegate haul in the balance."

"Here’s why: We have five states coming up in which Bernie Sanders will probably do very, very well. It’s not inconceivable that he could sweep them all. But even a sweep won’t change the structure of the race in any way. Three of the five (Hawaii, Wyoming and Alaska) are states with relatively few delegates. The Democratic contests are all proportional, so Hillary Clinton will get a share of delegates even if she gets shut out."

"Political reporters know that all five of these contests, combined, will account for fewer delegates (286) than will New York alone on April 19 (291). Clinton is up by 48 points in the latest poll of New York, and by 33 points in 538’s weighted polling average. Things may change, but it’s looking like a blowout at this point."

"Then, one week after New York goes, 462 delegates will be awarded in five mid-Atlantic states. Clinton is the favorite in four of them, and one, Rhode Island (which has a tiny delegate count), is essentially a toss-up."

"So we have 286 delegates that will be awarded in prime Sanders territory between this Saturday and April 9, followed by a 10-day pause, and then 753 more delegates will be awarded in a two-week period in what’s looking, at this point, like solid Clinton country."

"This stretch of primaries is going to set off a war-of-words between Sanders supporters – and liberal media outlets that back the Vermont Senator — and more neutral political reporters, especially data-based journalists who keep an eye on the delegate count and the calendar. That’s because there’s going to be a natural disconnect between what appears to be a lot of momentum on Sanders’ side, and the way the mainstream media will characterize the race."

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/03/all-out-warfare-is-about-to-break-out-between-bernie-sanders-supporters-and-the-political-press/#.VvTin8J5PO0.twitter

You can imagine Huffington Post's coverage. They recently actually tried to claim not that Bernie will ultimately come from behind, but that he currently is winning if you just look at it the right way. Wish I was kidding.

I feel bad for Markos the Daily Kos blog owner with all those annoying Bernie commentators infecting his comments section.

"Serious reporters know that the next five contests will shave some delegates off of Clinton’s healthy lead – she’s currently up by 303 pledged delegates according to Real Clear Politics‘ count – which still leaves her well ahead as the fight for the nomination moves to friendlier ground for the Clinton campaign."

"Journalists with knowledge of the calendar won’t report that Sanders is turning the race on its head. They won’t report that it’s a whole new ballgame, or that a win in Alaska predicts a victory in Maryland. They won’t report that Sanders is surging."

"A lot of Sanders supporters will want them to cover these victories in sweeping terms, and write that the momentum has shifted, but they won’t. They won’t report these things because they aren’t true, or at least because there will be no reason to expect them to prove true at the time (one never knows what might happen in the future). If Sanders had swept five early contests and gained a lead in the delegate count, it might have caused primary voters in later states who leaned toward Clinton to re-evaluate their choice. But we’re more than halfway through the campaign, opinions are becoming set and when the candidates get to New York, Clinton will still be up by at least a couple of hundred pledged delegates."

"A lot of Sanders supporters have been primed by progressive media outlets that support the candidate – and various Facebook memes – to see these things through the prism of a conspiracy by the “establishment” media to keep Sanders down. So while the reporting will be factual and responsible — and based on the delegate math – we can expect our social media feeds to fill up with a million pissed off posts complaining that Sanders’ big win in Wyoming (18 delegates) wasn’t front-page news, or demanding to know why the media refuse to report the obvious fact that these next five contests are game-changers that will surely propel Sanders to a glorious victory over Hitlery Killton."

http://www.rawstory.com/2016/03/all-out-warfare-is-about-to-break-out-between-bernie-sanders-supporters-and-the-political-press/#.VvTin8J5PO0.twitter

The thing for Hillary supporters to do is keep our eye on the ball. Bernie is supposed win all three caucuses today. To be sure, it's ironic that a guy whose running for working class does best in the caucus system where so few of those who work for a living can make it.

In the future I think there is something to doing away with the caucus system. Certainly these aren't about getting us the majority preference of party voters in the state. Iowa will probably always keep it's system but outside hopefully we'll see a move off of this in the future.

So expect a three state Bernie sweep. Just remember him winning three states or the tabulation of how many states he vs. she has won are meaningless. The only state with any real delegates is Washington. We'll see if she's able to hold down his margin there at all.

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/bernie-sanders-is-about-to-have-his-best-day-since-new-hampshire/24236/

Even so, she will still get some super delegates:

Polling is non-existent in Hawaii, but local Democrats —even ones supporting Clinton — have a straightforward read on Saturday: A Sanders win is expected, a Clinton victory is a shocker.

“I’d be surprised if he doesn’t do very well,” said Hawaii County Democratic Committee chairman Phil Barnes.

A top Democratic aide to a Hawaii lawmaker supporting Clinton put it more directly: “He's going to crush us. He should win this thing 2-to-1 at least,” the aide said of Sanders prospects. “If we keep this below 65-35 I'd be shocked.”

"Gov. David Ige, the state’s new governor who ousted former Gov. Neil Abercrombie in 2014, is staying neutral — at least publicly."

“He’ll vote for Hillary and I think when he goes up to Philadelphia I would be shocked if he didn’t cast his vote [for her] as a super delegate,” a top Democrat involved with the Clinton campaign in the state said. Multiple Democratic aides said the governor has been on some of the campaign’s strategy calls in the state but hasn’t been willing to openly endorse Clinton yet."

"(Ige’s office didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.)"

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-alaska-hawaii-washington-221239#ixzz440o7i14h

Of course, Igor doesn't want to comment on this. But this is the reality of primaries. Not all delegates are bound. The same people who for anti Trump reasons admit this on the GOP side act like it's a scandal on the Dem side.

Until now that Bernie himself is saying he will work over the super delegates.


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