He sure did get overly happy over his window dressing 2 point in Michigan. It seems to me that the pundits and pollsters also overreacted to it.
After the polls were off in Bernie's favor in Michigan they are just as off tonight in Hillary's favor. It's not just that she's winning but how strong her win is.
Hillary seems to be winning everyone tonight in Ohio-even white voters. LOL
"Want to know why Clinton won Ohio? Look no further than white voters. According to the exit polls, she won white voters 51 percent to 48 percent. She lost them in Michigan by 14 percentage points."
"We have to watch the election day vote in Ohio, but Clinton is literally winning every county but one in the state. In the early vote Clinton leads by 37 percentage points, and more than 150,000 votes have been counted."
After the polls were off in Bernie's favor in Michigan they are just as off tonight in Hillary's favor. It's not just that she's winning but how strong her win is.
Hillary seems to be winning everyone tonight in Ohio-even white voters. LOL
"Want to know why Clinton won Ohio? Look no further than white voters. According to the exit polls, she won white voters 51 percent to 48 percent. She lost them in Michigan by 14 percentage points."
"We have to watch the election day vote in Ohio, but Clinton is literally winning every county but one in the state. In the early vote Clinton leads by 37 percentage points, and more than 150,000 votes have been counted."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/
"Sanders could still pull out wins in Illinois or Missouri, but with North Carolina, Ohio and Florida all having been called for Clinton, I’m reminded about what I said in our chat earlier today. So far, the primaries have often defied momentum. After a shocking loss in Michigan last week, Clinton is poised to have one of the best nights of her campaign."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/
I think you can argue that Bernie never had the right theory of this race.
1. Before Nevada he honestly thought that he could get a quick knock out. He dismissed the issue of white voters vs. diverse voters.
2. After Michigan he fell into the idea that momentum will some how defeat math.
3. In many ways he patterned this campaign after Obama but the Obama team always knew it's about math not momentum.
It's early, and I don't want to jinx it, but even in Missouri she's doing very well right now. Illinois is the closet but with 9 percent in she has a 10 point lead.
So what we have discovered tonight is maybe trade bashing doesn't always pay and that Bernie and the media got much too happy over a small win in Michigan. It was considered important symbolically but what does tonight's loss in Ohio symbolize?
All last week I argued that math is what matters not momentum. Nate Silver just said this:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/
I think you can argue that Bernie never had the right theory of this race.
1. Before Nevada he honestly thought that he could get a quick knock out. He dismissed the issue of white voters vs. diverse voters.
2. After Michigan he fell into the idea that momentum will some how defeat math.
3. In many ways he patterned this campaign after Obama but the Obama team always knew it's about math not momentum.
4. He also learns that just because he has a hammer, not every problem is a nail-'free trade deals written by the corporations.'
UPDATE: It also takes away the last piece of Tad Devine spin: that she's a 'regional candidate' as she can only win the South-other than Massachusetts.
That never made much sense and was a dangerous argument for him to make too as it sounds like he's marginalizing black voters, particularly in the South.
"Hillary winning Ohio effectively kills off narrative that she can't compete in the Rust Belt in the general."
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/709903186627313664
UPDATE: It also takes away the last piece of Tad Devine spin: that she's a 'regional candidate' as she can only win the South-other than Massachusetts.
That never made much sense and was a dangerous argument for him to make too as it sounds like he's marginalizing black voters, particularly in the South.
"Hillary winning Ohio effectively kills off narrative that she can't compete in the Rust Belt in the general."
https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/709903186627313664
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