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Monday, March 28, 2016

California Raises Minimum Wage to $15 an Hour

They are the first state to do so. Previously, we saw big cities like Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles go to $15.

California appears poised to raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour.
"Gov. Jerry Brown’s administration has told leaders in the Democratic-controlled state Legislature he supports boosting the state’s minimum wage to $15 by 2022, a person familiar with the matter said. The approach would give the governor some control over an issue that looked set to be decided directly by voters in November."

"Moving ahead with the plan would give the most populous U.S. state the nation’s highest minimum pay floor. The minimum wage in California is now $10 an hour, already one of the highest of any state, though some cities have set higher minimum levels."

"The deal proposed to California lawmakers by the Democratic governor, reported earlier by the Los Angeles Times, comes after one of two labor-sponsored initiatives to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour qualified for the November 2016 ballot."

"A wage of $15 an hour—about $30,000 a year for full-time workers—has become a rallying cry by many on the left in recent years, with intensity rising amid concerns about economic inequality."

http://www.wsj.com/articles/california-moves-toward-15-an-hour-minimum-wage-1459115685

The DailyNewsBin points out that this takes the issue off the table for the Hillary-Bernie primary on June 7. It would at least seem to defuse it.

"Bernie Sanders has, all along, been campaigning on an overnight doubling of the national minimum wage to fifteen dollars per hour. Regardless of what might or might not be fair, such a move would risk inflation and recession, as such things must be done in a more sophisticated and incremental manner in order to be economically valid. Hillary Clinton is arguing for a more nuanced approach to raising the minimum wage which would fix the issue without wrecking the economy. But she’s had a difficult time selling that kind of intelligent thinking to those who are too economically naive to realize the simplistic Sanders plan would be a disaster."

"As it turns out, California Governor Jerry Brown just struck a deal to raise the state’s minimum wage to that same mark, fifteen dollars per hour. Of course his plan includes exceptions and increments and the kind of smart economic policy one might expect from a politician who knows what he’s doing. So now those undecided democrats in California who might have been tempted to support Bernie Sanders simply for his magical $15 wage hike have now seen that issue vanish in their state. Sanders just lost the one talking point that he thought he could use to win there."

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/heres-why-hillary-clinton-just-won-california/24274/

Hillary's call for a $12 federal MW would itself be an increase of 70 percent of the current $7.25. The real case for not going for $15 overnight is the need for what the economists call natural experiments.

I personally like the idea of a $15 MW but agree that it should be done incrementally. In recent years economists have decided that small increases in the MW don't increase unemployment but what about a rise of 100 percent or more?

I think you'd at least want to test it out incrementally rather than doubling it overnight. There are, of course, some who think going for $15 in the entire state is a mistake-as opposed to big cities like LA and San Francisco.

My home state of NY might see a $15 MW in the not so distant future either.

Again, I think it's a good idea but it should be done incrementally.

"States appear to be the next battleground. Lawmakers in New York are in advanced discussions to bring that state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour, from $9 now. Gov. Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat, is trying to include a vote in the Legislature on the measure as part of the state’s budget, due April 1, although details are still under negotiation."

"The proposed increases have met resistance from business groups and Republicans—including presidential front-runner Donald Trump—who say they will lead to fewer jobs for low-skilled Americans. Critics say they are an inefficient way to help the poor, as many minimum-wage earners are high-school students or others without dependents."

"Of particular concern is the magnitude of the proposed increase. Previous hikes have generally been more gradual, and large swaths of big states like California have a low cost of living and fragile economies."

“I think there’s going to be job loss everywhere,” said David Neumark, an economist at the University of California, Irvine. “You get out of the big cities and California is not a rich place at all.”

The plan, which was outlined to legislative leaders by Mr. Brown’s office last week, would raise the wage from $10 an hour to $10.50 on Jan. 1, 2017, followed by a 50-cent increase in 2018, the person familiar with the proposal said. Yearly $1 increases would continue through 2022, the person said."

There is, however, value in going a little slower at the federal level to gauge the effects at the local and state level. There are always going to be states that go higher than the federal level.

Oregon has an interesting approach:

"In March, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown, a Democrat, signed a landmark minimum-wage law that makes that state the first in the nation to mandate higher pay in cities than rural areas. The law, which enacts a series of minimum-wage increases through 2022—with the level set to reach $14.75 an hour in Portland—was proposed by the governor after labor officials and activists in that state also proposed minimum-wage ballot initiatives."

"Gabe Horwitz, economic program vice president at Third Way, a left-center Think Tank in Washington, said California’s approach is “blunt” compared with the tiered increases Oregon passed."

“Fifteen dollars an hour may work in places like San Francisco or Los Angeles, but it could have very different economic effects in some of the very rural areas in the state,” Mr. Horwitz said. “Oregon took that into effect and adjusted their wage to address fears that a big-city minimum wage would destroy jobs in low-cost small towns.”

P.S. Regarding the California primary, there's a good chance she will have over the 2383 delegates for the nomination by then.

P.S.S. I should ask Last Men and OverMen reader extraordinaire Tom Brown what he thinks about a $15 MW across his state of California? What effect does he see it having on the economy out there?

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