Very Good Night for Polls, Even Better Night for Hillary

There was an awful lot of gloating about Michigan last week. The media loves its narratives and followed Bernie down this rabbit hole about how the world changed because he won a less than 2 point win in Michigan.

Nate Silver points out it was a better night for their polls so the Bernie fans can't give it to them again. I'm happy for Nate, there is nothing worse than gloating Bernie stans:


This Is A Great Night For Democratic Polls

"After a disaster in Michigan, the polls look as though they’ll have a pretty good night on the Democratic side."

"In Florida, Clinton is projected to win by 32 percentage points, according to The Upshot’s model, close to her 29-point lead in our polling average."

"In Ohio, Clinton is projected to win by 15; she led by 11 in the polling average there."

"In North Carolina, Clinton is projected to win by 18; she was up 22 in the polling average."

"Illinois has not been called, but The Upshot projects Clinton to eventually win by 4 percentage points. She led by 7 in our polling average."

"And Missouri, where Clinton led by less than 1 percentage point in our polling average, is projected to be just as close in the actual vote."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/

He can take his victory lap, but this is a huge victory lap for Hillary as well. She won big in Florida and NC as expected. But none of the recent polls predicted her to get such a strong win in Ohio. 

And it looks like she may hold on in Illinois as well. The vote is two thirds in and she has an almost 5 point lead. 

The Hillary team isn't calling for Bernie to get out, but she did hit Trump hard tonight. I'm guessing the Hillary team is going to let others make this call. 

Indeed, Jennifer Palmieri argued that Bernie can go to the end as Hilary herself did in 2008. 

But she never trailed by more than 300 pledged delegates. 

He has some states coming up he may win but these are more of these small white states and caucuses that don't have that many delegates. And again, winning states is besides the point. By the end of the night she will be at over 70 percent needed delegates. 

At that point what use is it to 'win New York and California' by a few points. New York is worth almost 300 delegates, California is 545. Even if she lost she will get hundreds of delegates.