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Wednesday, March 23, 2016

Another Historical Night as Hillary is Now Over 70 percent of Way to the Nomination

Some more cracks in that highest glass ceiling. It was a big win for HRC in Arizona and a few moral victories in Utah and Idaho.

Huffingtonpost today is very comically putting Bernie's Utah and Idaho wins high on the page and Hillary's winning Arizona is put lowest beneath Trump winning. Even Trump gets a picture, Hillary just gets a 'Hillary win's too.'

By the way, if anyone tries to tell them that Bernie 'got back the momentum' last night, just remember they are talking out of ignorance like NBC here.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/sanders-wins-idaho-utah-while-clinton-trump-take-arizona-n543881?cid=sm_tw

There is no momentum, there are just delegates. That's how Obama won in 2008. Hillary now has a lead over 700 delegates, and is 71 percent of the way to 2383. Bernie did win two caucuses handily that he was expected to win and where she didn't campaign at all or spend a single dollar in.

Meanwhile in Arizona while he campaigned there the last week and out spent her $1.3 million to $600,000, she beat him by almost 20 points. And Arizona was another more diverse state while the two caucuses were very white states yet again.

"Hillary Clinton won Arizona, giving her the most delegates of the night, despite Sanders’ two wins last night:

"Sanders won handily in Utah and Idaho, but that may have done little to improve his overall standing in delegates against Clinton….Sanders’s victories in Idaho and Utah were expected. Even Clinton’s campaign manager had predicted as much, but said it is still highly improbable that Sanders can ever catch up to her lead in the delegate count."

"When you include super-delegates, Clinton now has a delegate lead over Sanders that tops 700 points."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/03/23/why-trump-is-winning-his-supporters-think-america-is-screwing-over-whites/

Bernie's goal seems to be to drag this out as long as possible and grab every moral victory he can. But the math says there is no path to victory-the thing that Bernie and his supporters don't like to talk about. Whether its his unrealistic policies or his unrealistic path to victory he doesn't want to hear reality.

At this point she has 1681 delegates and he has 927, including super delegates which count just as much. Yes they could theoretically change but when she has such a big lead in pledged delegates why would they? Most of these folks are Democrats who want the Democrat in the race not the guy renting out the party after insulting it for years.

Meanwhile there are 2157 delegates left. She needs just 702 delegates for 2383 out of 2157 available. She needs just 702 of the 2157 left or 33 percent. For his part he needs 1456 out of 2157 or 67 percent. It doesn't take a cockeyed optimist to think she will get to 702 before he gets to 1456.

As Harry Enten put it last night:

"Let's just say it for what it is: by any measure Clinton is winning this primary. Save maybe among Reddit users."

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/712484066973642752

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