Bill Palmer at DailyNewsBin goes out on a limb to estimate this down to the day.
Of course, in reality the race is already over. She has 1690 delegates while he has 946 with the finished line being 2383. It's already over as she needs just one third of the slightly more than 2100 delegates left.
Tad Devine is claiming that Bernie will just keep running and running because Hillary did the same. So Bernie, if Hil does a paid speech at Goldman Sachs will you do the same? Seeing as how you're so much better than her.
Even she stopped in early June because she cared about the party. And she never trailed anywhere close to the 300 pledged delegates Bernie trails by. In any case, Bill Palmer:
"The big variable is that 252 of the superdelegates are still unannounced. Nearly all of them will side with Hillary, and as she comes closer to clinching, more of the superdelegates will come out of the woodwork to endorse her. Some are simply afraid of publicly committing too early, because they want it to be clear to all involved that she’s winning this based on popular vote (currently ahead by 2.6 million votes), and that the superdelegates are merely icing on the cake. So I’ve tried a few different timetables based on how soon they’ll commit to her."
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/when-will-hillary-clinton-mathematically-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-i-think-i-know/24240/
Very good point. Most of these 252 will go to Hillary just like the early batch has. Expect her to again get about 95 percent. So she should get about 240 of those. Adding this to her current 1690 and you have 1942. So in truth she has about 81 percent of the delegates she needs and only needs 441 more or just 20 percent of the remaining 2100 plus pledged delegates still available.
But of course euphemism means we can't admit that:
1. These super delegates have free will.
2. Most of these SDs will exercise this free will by voting for Hillary.
3. We can't admit that the party decides. Indeed, Chris Hayes himself recently admitted this but regarding Trump and the GOP. He admitted that the party is a private club in truth and can nominate who it wants. But will Hayes admit this holds for the Democrats too and that the party has long decided they don't want the Bern?
Bernie is admitting the same now by suggesting that he will try to turn the delegates even though the voters voted for Hillary.
Back to Palmer:
Of course, in reality the race is already over. She has 1690 delegates while he has 946 with the finished line being 2383. It's already over as she needs just one third of the slightly more than 2100 delegates left.
Tad Devine is claiming that Bernie will just keep running and running because Hillary did the same. So Bernie, if Hil does a paid speech at Goldman Sachs will you do the same? Seeing as how you're so much better than her.
Even she stopped in early June because she cared about the party. And she never trailed anywhere close to the 300 pledged delegates Bernie trails by. In any case, Bill Palmer:
"The big variable is that 252 of the superdelegates are still unannounced. Nearly all of them will side with Hillary, and as she comes closer to clinching, more of the superdelegates will come out of the woodwork to endorse her. Some are simply afraid of publicly committing too early, because they want it to be clear to all involved that she’s winning this based on popular vote (currently ahead by 2.6 million votes), and that the superdelegates are merely icing on the cake. So I’ve tried a few different timetables based on how soon they’ll commit to her."
http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/when-will-hillary-clinton-mathematically-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-i-think-i-know/24240/
Very good point. Most of these 252 will go to Hillary just like the early batch has. Expect her to again get about 95 percent. So she should get about 240 of those. Adding this to her current 1690 and you have 1942. So in truth she has about 81 percent of the delegates she needs and only needs 441 more or just 20 percent of the remaining 2100 plus pledged delegates still available.
But of course euphemism means we can't admit that:
1. These super delegates have free will.
2. Most of these SDs will exercise this free will by voting for Hillary.
3. We can't admit that the party decides. Indeed, Chris Hayes himself recently admitted this but regarding Trump and the GOP. He admitted that the party is a private club in truth and can nominate who it wants. But will Hayes admit this holds for the Democrats too and that the party has long decided they don't want the Bern?
Bernie is admitting the same now by suggesting that he will try to turn the delegates even though the voters voted for Hillary.
Back to Palmer:
"Here’s what I’ve come up with. Hillary currently needs 693 more delegates to mathematically clinch. By the time voting closes in New York on April 19th, she will have gotten that total down to around 440. At this point would I would expect superdelegates to consider the coast to be more clear, with perhaps fifty of the remaining 252 speaking up and endorsing her around this timeframe. So now she’d need 390 more delegates to clinch."
"By the time she’s done with Pennsylvania and the other four states that vote on April 26th, she should need just 172 more delegates. It may sound like a big jump from 290 to 172 in just one week, but I’m actually including the low end of her expected Pennsylvania numbers. At this point the remaining superdelegates could unanimously endorse her and put her over the top. But let’s conservatively estimate that by this time just another fifty superdelegates will have endorsed her. So now she’d need 122 more delegates. Throughout the course of May she’ll pick up another 114 delegates in states like Kentucky, meaning she’d be only around eight shy of clinching. She’ll certainly pick up more than eight more superdelegates during May."
"That means Hillary Clinton will likely clinch the nomination sometime not too long before California and five other states vote on June 7th. That’s perhaps ironic, as the claim from the Sanders camp is that he’s going to use California to magically catch up. Of course he’s behind in the polls in that state to begin with. Even if he did win, it would be a by a small margin, giving Hillary 200-plus delegates one way or the other. That’s in addition to the other roughly ninety delegates she’ll get from the other five states. Even if she somehow isn’t over the top before June 7th, that day will put her monumentally past the mark."
"Again, the unknown timetable of the superdelegates means Hillary could possibly clinch before May if they get aggressive, or if they all get gun-shy, she might have to use her California haul to put herself over the top. But the most likely clinching range is in May. In any case she’s on a pace to come out as many as four million popular votes ahead of Sanders, meaning any claims of superdelegate interference will ring hollow. Clinching is a mere formality. It’s not even clear if Sanders will have the money to remain in the race all the way to California, as more of his supporters continue to see that he’s going to lose even if they keep donating."
It does seem that his supporters have remained Quixotic and impervious to math so far. Though you do see some Bernie supporters turning. So that will be a process. But May should be the month-depending on how gun-shy the SDs are and she in truth is more like 80 percent of the way there rather than just 70 percent as indicated factoring just the SDs who have already pledged.
"By the time she’s done with Pennsylvania and the other four states that vote on April 26th, she should need just 172 more delegates. It may sound like a big jump from 290 to 172 in just one week, but I’m actually including the low end of her expected Pennsylvania numbers. At this point the remaining superdelegates could unanimously endorse her and put her over the top. But let’s conservatively estimate that by this time just another fifty superdelegates will have endorsed her. So now she’d need 122 more delegates. Throughout the course of May she’ll pick up another 114 delegates in states like Kentucky, meaning she’d be only around eight shy of clinching. She’ll certainly pick up more than eight more superdelegates during May."
"That means Hillary Clinton will likely clinch the nomination sometime not too long before California and five other states vote on June 7th. That’s perhaps ironic, as the claim from the Sanders camp is that he’s going to use California to magically catch up. Of course he’s behind in the polls in that state to begin with. Even if he did win, it would be a by a small margin, giving Hillary 200-plus delegates one way or the other. That’s in addition to the other roughly ninety delegates she’ll get from the other five states. Even if she somehow isn’t over the top before June 7th, that day will put her monumentally past the mark."
"Again, the unknown timetable of the superdelegates means Hillary could possibly clinch before May if they get aggressive, or if they all get gun-shy, she might have to use her California haul to put herself over the top. But the most likely clinching range is in May. In any case she’s on a pace to come out as many as four million popular votes ahead of Sanders, meaning any claims of superdelegate interference will ring hollow. Clinching is a mere formality. It’s not even clear if Sanders will have the money to remain in the race all the way to California, as more of his supporters continue to see that he’s going to lose even if they keep donating."
It does seem that his supporters have remained Quixotic and impervious to math so far. Though you do see some Bernie supporters turning. So that will be a process. But May should be the month-depending on how gun-shy the SDs are and she in truth is more like 80 percent of the way there rather than just 70 percent as indicated factoring just the SDs who have already pledged.
No comments:
Post a Comment