The conventional wisdom for months has been that you want to get Trump in a two man race. You see many proponents of this in the GOP Establishment with Romney, Lindsay Graham, Carly Fiorina, and now Jeb Bush endorsing Cruz or telling Kasich to get out.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/jeb-endorses-ted.html
Yet, a new poll out today seems to throw cold water on this theory:
"Donald Trump would lead either Ted Cruz or John Kasich in a two-way race, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday."
"Asked whom they would like to win the GOP nomination, 43 percent of the 652 Republicans surveyed said they wanted Trump to emerge as the party's choice in Cleveland, followed by 29 percent for Cruz and just 16 percent for Kasich, with 9 percent undecided."
"In a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Cruz — with Kasich voters re-allocated to their second choices — the Manhattan real-estate mogul earned 46 percent support, compared with 37 percent for Cruz and 12 percent undecided. While the Texas senator drew slim advantages among tea party supporters, white, born-again evangelicals and those describing themselves as very conservative, Trump drew far greater support from voters who described themselves as somewhat conservative, moderate or liberal, as well as among men, women and those 45 years and older.
"With Cruz supporters shifting to their second choices, Trump would have a large lead. Fifty-six percent said they would vote for Trump, with just 25 percent opting for Kasich and 13 percent undecided. More than seven-in-10 (71 percent) of tea party supporters said they would vote for Trump over the Ohio governor, along with strong majorities in every demographic and ideological group, including those describing themselves as moderate or liberal."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/2016-republican-poll-trump-cruz-kasich-221111#ixzz43k0RcKrf
This also throws cold water on the idea that it would somehow be democratic for the GOP to deny Trump the nomination if he were a few delegates short of 1237 for Kasich. If you want to say that Trump isn't the choice of 50 percent of the party, Kaisch isn't the choice of 5 percent.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/jeb-endorses-ted.html
Yet, a new poll out today seems to throw cold water on this theory:
"Donald Trump would lead either Ted Cruz or John Kasich in a two-way race, according to the results of a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday."
"Asked whom they would like to win the GOP nomination, 43 percent of the 652 Republicans surveyed said they wanted Trump to emerge as the party's choice in Cleveland, followed by 29 percent for Cruz and just 16 percent for Kasich, with 9 percent undecided."
"In a head-to-head matchup between Trump and Cruz — with Kasich voters re-allocated to their second choices — the Manhattan real-estate mogul earned 46 percent support, compared with 37 percent for Cruz and 12 percent undecided. While the Texas senator drew slim advantages among tea party supporters, white, born-again evangelicals and those describing themselves as very conservative, Trump drew far greater support from voters who described themselves as somewhat conservative, moderate or liberal, as well as among men, women and those 45 years and older.
"With Cruz supporters shifting to their second choices, Trump would have a large lead. Fifty-six percent said they would vote for Trump, with just 25 percent opting for Kasich and 13 percent undecided. More than seven-in-10 (71 percent) of tea party supporters said they would vote for Trump over the Ohio governor, along with strong majorities in every demographic and ideological group, including those describing themselves as moderate or liberal."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/2016-republican-poll-trump-cruz-kasich-221111#ixzz43k0RcKrf
This also throws cold water on the idea that it would somehow be democratic for the GOP to deny Trump the nomination if he were a few delegates short of 1237 for Kasich. If you want to say that Trump isn't the choice of 50 percent of the party, Kaisch isn't the choice of 5 percent.
Sam Wang has argued that Kasich can help the #StopTrump effort but he has to play it a very specific way.
"It is in Trump’s interest for the field to remain divided. He may say that he wants a one-to-one showdown with Cruz. But in national surveys, GOP voters prefer Cruz over Trump by 15 percentage points. Broadly speaking, Trump can get 50% of delegates (or within a few dozen, which allows recruitment of uncommitted delegates) with as low as 35% popular support. So it is in his interest for Kasich to stay in the race in winner-take-all states. This was well worth the loss of Ohio’s 66 delegates. In fact, it was probably the cheapest way Trump could get that outcome."
"It is in Cruz’s interest for the field to narrow to a one-on-one race. For this reason, Cruz’s optimal actions last week were to campaign against Kasich in Ohio, and against Rubio in Florida. If Kasich drops out, Cruz could get 40% or more of total delegates. Therefore Cruz now wants Kasich to drop out – entirely."
"Kasich has no path to getting a majority of delegates. However, he does have a way to prevent Trump from getting a majority, which is different from what both Trump and Cruz want him to do."
"First, Kasich should completely withdraw from winner-take-all states. Indeed, he should say so publicly, the way that Rubio pulled out of Ohio last week. In these states, he divides the “non-Trump” voter bloc, which polling suggests is about 55-60% of Republican voters. Therefore if Kasich does not drain support from Cruz, Cruz can take those states’ delegates away from Trump."
"At the same time, Kasich should still campaign in the remaining proportional states, which are: Utah, the Northeast (New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island), the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington), and New Mexico."
"Obviously, this path requires a lot of self-restraint. For one thing, Kasich doesn’t want Cruz to get the nomination. But I note that it is highly unlikely under any scenario for Cruz to get 50% of delegates."
"Kasich’s strategy is exactly what Romney has recommended. Romney himself is carrying out the strategy – mostly. He advised Kasich and Rubio to pull out of one another’s home states. He campaigned for Kasich in Ohio. And now he is telling voters to rally around Cruz in Utah. This last step is not perfect – Romney could do even better by lying low in the proportional states."
"In Romney’s case, we have the reverse problem. What is his eventual goal? It could simply be to stop Trump. But Romney may also be working in his own interest. An open convention also opens the possibility that Romney himself could emerge as the compromise candidate. After all, Romney does have a history of wanting to be President. The source of his credibility (former GOP nominee) is also grounds for suspecting his motives."
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/03/19/mitt-romney-game-theory-expert/#more-14692
This was written before last night, of course, but I think it captures well that each actor has a different interest. Kasich probably won't heed Wang here-he campaigned in Utah and has said he is 'running for President' when asked why.
Again, this morning's poll suggests that Trump could be Cruz head to head-certainly Cruz would not be favored in the Northeast. But Cruz's head to head numbers are much closer than Kasich's.
But at the end of the day, I think the GOP is where it always is lately: two divided in aims and strategy to stop Trump. Whether he gets 1237, he will be close and if so, it will be tough to replace him with Kasich or Romney.
P.S. Kasich doesn't seem to be listening.
"It is in Cruz’s interest for the field to narrow to a one-on-one race. For this reason, Cruz’s optimal actions last week were to campaign against Kasich in Ohio, and against Rubio in Florida. If Kasich drops out, Cruz could get 40% or more of total delegates. Therefore Cruz now wants Kasich to drop out – entirely."
"Kasich has no path to getting a majority of delegates. However, he does have a way to prevent Trump from getting a majority, which is different from what both Trump and Cruz want him to do."
"First, Kasich should completely withdraw from winner-take-all states. Indeed, he should say so publicly, the way that Rubio pulled out of Ohio last week. In these states, he divides the “non-Trump” voter bloc, which polling suggests is about 55-60% of Republican voters. Therefore if Kasich does not drain support from Cruz, Cruz can take those states’ delegates away from Trump."
"At the same time, Kasich should still campaign in the remaining proportional states, which are: Utah, the Northeast (New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island), the Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington), and New Mexico."
"Obviously, this path requires a lot of self-restraint. For one thing, Kasich doesn’t want Cruz to get the nomination. But I note that it is highly unlikely under any scenario for Cruz to get 50% of delegates."
"Kasich’s strategy is exactly what Romney has recommended. Romney himself is carrying out the strategy – mostly. He advised Kasich and Rubio to pull out of one another’s home states. He campaigned for Kasich in Ohio. And now he is telling voters to rally around Cruz in Utah. This last step is not perfect – Romney could do even better by lying low in the proportional states."
"In Romney’s case, we have the reverse problem. What is his eventual goal? It could simply be to stop Trump. But Romney may also be working in his own interest. An open convention also opens the possibility that Romney himself could emerge as the compromise candidate. After all, Romney does have a history of wanting to be President. The source of his credibility (former GOP nominee) is also grounds for suspecting his motives."
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/03/19/mitt-romney-game-theory-expert/#more-14692
This was written before last night, of course, but I think it captures well that each actor has a different interest. Kasich probably won't heed Wang here-he campaigned in Utah and has said he is 'running for President' when asked why.
Again, this morning's poll suggests that Trump could be Cruz head to head-certainly Cruz would not be favored in the Northeast. But Cruz's head to head numbers are much closer than Kasich's.
But at the end of the day, I think the GOP is where it always is lately: two divided in aims and strategy to stop Trump. Whether he gets 1237, he will be close and if so, it will be tough to replace him with Kasich or Romney.
P.S. Kasich doesn't seem to be listening.
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