Pages

Monday, March 28, 2016

Hillary Leads Bernie 47-36 in California

In an earlier piece this morning, we looked at the anticipated $15 minimum wage in California, and how this possibly could co-opt Bernie's attempt to use his $15 federal proposal as a wedge issue in Cali.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/california-raises-minimum-wage-to.html

Either way, she's got a a good chance of reaching the necessary 2382 delegates for the nomination before California and of winning the state itself. A new poll seems to show the race roughly where previous polls have shown it: HRC leads 47-36.

What's interesting is that most of Bernie's own Cali supporters expect her to be the next President.

"Most of Sen. Bernie Sanders' supporters in California say they expect that come November, Hillary Clinton will be elected president — and, by and large, they're OK with that."

"While both Democratic camps prepare for a final battle in the state’s June 7 primary, the latest USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times statewide poll found that just over half of Sanders’ supporters said they expected Clinton to be the next president. About a third of Sanders’ backers said they expected the Vermont senator to emerge the winner, and 12% said they thought Donald Trump would prevail."

"Close to 8 in 10 Sanders supporters said in the survey that they would vote for Clinton in a race against Trump, although many said they would do so reluctantly."

"Those findings show the reality underlying the still-heated rhetoric of the Democratic primaries: By contrast with the civil war that divides Republicans, Democrats in the country’s largest state have begun to coalesce behind their front-runner."

"In the primary race, Clinton holds a modest lead over Sanders, 45% to 37%, among all Democrats and independent voters eligible to vote. Her lead is slightly larger, 47% to 36%, among those most likely to vote. Either way, that’s a significant problem for Sanders."

"The poll was conducted before Sanders’ sweep of three Western states — Alaska, Hawaii and Washington — on Saturday, but those victories don’t change the electoral math much. Sanders would need not just a win in California, but something close to a landslide to overcome Clinton’s large lead in delegates before the party’s nominating convention in July."

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-latimes-democratic-primary-poll-20160328-story.html

Time to coalesce around Trump is the feeling in Cali as elsewhere. By then she will be so far ahead if she hasn't clinched the California vote will be basically a formality.

She leads 42-37 among white voters and 48-39 among nonwhite voters. That's all Democrat and independent voters. Among likely voters, the gap is a little wider.

Her lead in California has been pretty stable for months.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html

He will argue that he has time to turn it around but that's the whole problem. He still talks about winning states and moral victories not making up huge delegate shortfalls. But Cali is the end of the line.

No comments:

Post a Comment