A Good Night for Bernie but This is as Good as it's Going to Get

He did what he needed to do tonight. He won the states he was supposed to win by big margins-over 80 percent in Alaska, and 72 percent in Washington-where 101 pledged delegates hang in the balance.

Having said that she still has a very large pledged delegate lead.

"Noting the “huge” voter turnout — in Washington, Democratic Party officials estimated more than 200,000 people participated on Saturday, close to the record set in 2008 — he told the crowd, “We are making significant inroads into Secretary Clinton’s lead.”

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/27/us/politics/election-results.html?_r=0

The Bern is taking some license with the words 'significant inroads.' She still holds a very large lead, over double the largest lead Obama had over her in 2008-and his lead proved to be insurmountable. One reason Bernie says he continues to fight on is that, after all, she did it in 2008.

Her deficit wasn't as big, but in any case she packed it in early June. Surely he doesn't plan to go beyond that.

"The victories in Washington and Alaska, which awarded 16 delegates on Saturday, slightly narrow the gulf with Mrs. Clinton in the quest for the 2,382 delegates needed to clinch the Democratic nomination. As of Saturday evening, Mrs. Clinton had roughly 280 more so-called pledged delegates, who are awarded based on voting, and 440 more superdelegates — party leaders and elected officials — than Mr. Sanders."

When the dust settles she still leads him by over 700 delegates and is over 71 percent of the way there to 2383. And this is going to be his highwater mark of the campaign.

DailyNewsBin plausibly argues that Hillary will likely get her 2383 by May depending on how timid the undecided superdelegates declare for her-most of them will. First of all they are Democrats and don't want to vote for a democratic socialist whose renting out the party.

Besides that, most delegates would rather support the winner.

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/when-will-hillary-clinton-mathematically-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-i-think-i-know/24240/

Here's the way to look at it:

"After a rough day, Hillary Clinton takes her massive lead into much more favorable April states."

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/hillary-clinton-takes-massive-delegate-lead-and-popular-vote-lead-into-favorable-april-states/24256/

Wisconsin is next and is worth 86 delegates-there are 10 superdelegates, most of which will go to her. Whether he beats her by a few points or loses to her by a few points the result will be the same: she wins and he loses. 

Because they will come out roughly with the same number of delegates which is a loss for him. As she's over 71 percent to the Promised Land, a tie is a win for her as she still gets about 45 delegates or so out of the state. 

 Bernie and Tad Devine make a lot of noise about winning NY. I don't know what their basis for thinking they can win my home state is. Judging by the conversations I'm hearing, there aren't too many Bernie supporters in the state of NY. If I know my fellow New Yorkers they don't want any part of Bernie. 

But again, the state is worth almost 300 delegates and even if he were to win by a couple of points she'd still end up with close to 150 when you factor in the 47 superdelegates. 

By the way, supderdelegates aren't going to feel intimidated with arguments that say 'Well we won your state by 1.5 percent so you better support us to make sure your being democratic.'

As it's' a proportional system many SDs will come from areas Bernie lost anyway. And a lot of SDs will care much less about who won their state by 2 points and rather who is going to win the nomination. 

If HRC gets 150 delegates that by itself would get her 22 percent closer to the nomination. And that's assuming he wins by a few points. The polling and what I know about my state says that she will win this comfortably-the word Jim Clyburn uses to predict her margin of victory in his South Carolina. 

Comfortably in SC meant almost 50 points.