She is down 52-44. Normally trailing is bad news of course, but this is in a state Sanders' expects to do well and if he wins by only eight points that's bad news for him.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Her certainly needs to win by more than eight points in a state like Utah if he is really going to come back from his huge delegate hole. We will see what happens but I consider this very good news if tomorrow's actual numbers look anything like this.
He needs to be getting 60 percent, 65 percent, 70 percent. I mean even 60 percent would only get him a seven delegate lead in a state worth just 37 delegates. But an eight point win is basically a tie in delegates-she will likely win in super delegates and even nose ahead of him.
Yet everything you hear from Bernie suggests that he thinks this is just about showing off winning states for 'momentum.' Someone needs to explain to him that there is no momentum, just math.
It's how Obama did it not momentum. Bernie's team is talking about winning all the states that Hillary in fact did win in 2008 and fell short. I don't think Bernie wins NY. New Jersey, California, and Pennsylvania handedly like she did.
But even if he did it won't be enough. But if he get 52 percent in Utah, that's a very bad harbinger for him, as it's' the sort of state he should be able to win handily if he has any chance.
In other news:
Nate Silver and Harry Enten say it's going to be close for Trump in his race for 1237. They interviewed experts and the baseline prediction is for him to be just short at 1208 after California-but leaving open the chance for him to get the 29 delegates before Cleveland in July.
"Overall, our average response suggests that Trump will win 513 delegates the rest of the way. When combined with the 695 he’s won so far, that means he’d fall 29 delegates short of the 1,237 needed to win on the first ballot. Here is the olympic average for each upcoming contest (we’ve left out some contests with only unbound delegates; see the footnotes for more detail)"
"If Trump does, in fact, get 1,208 delegates, he still might win on a first ballot. He would need only a fraction of the delegates that are currently unbound (or will be unbound) to reach 1,237."
"Who exactly are these unbound or uncommitted delegates? Some, like the six from the Virgin Islands, were elected by voters to be “uncommitted,” but they may commit to a candidate closer to the convention. Others, like the 54 Pennsylvania district delegates, are automatically unbound and have been elected as unbound for decades (see: when Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan in the 1976 primary). These delegates are free to choose whichever candidate they want on all ballots.4 In addition, some delegates from candidates who have withdrawn from the race may become available to Trump, depending on the state’s rules. Although it’s hard to know Trump’s exact chance of getting 29 delegates from this group, Trump probably would have a decent shot at reaching 1,237."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-donald-trump-clinch-the-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
Her certainly needs to win by more than eight points in a state like Utah if he is really going to come back from his huge delegate hole. We will see what happens but I consider this very good news if tomorrow's actual numbers look anything like this.
He needs to be getting 60 percent, 65 percent, 70 percent. I mean even 60 percent would only get him a seven delegate lead in a state worth just 37 delegates. But an eight point win is basically a tie in delegates-she will likely win in super delegates and even nose ahead of him.
Yet everything you hear from Bernie suggests that he thinks this is just about showing off winning states for 'momentum.' Someone needs to explain to him that there is no momentum, just math.
It's how Obama did it not momentum. Bernie's team is talking about winning all the states that Hillary in fact did win in 2008 and fell short. I don't think Bernie wins NY. New Jersey, California, and Pennsylvania handedly like she did.
But even if he did it won't be enough. But if he get 52 percent in Utah, that's a very bad harbinger for him, as it's' the sort of state he should be able to win handily if he has any chance.
In other news:
Nate Silver and Harry Enten say it's going to be close for Trump in his race for 1237. They interviewed experts and the baseline prediction is for him to be just short at 1208 after California-but leaving open the chance for him to get the 29 delegates before Cleveland in July.
"Overall, our average response suggests that Trump will win 513 delegates the rest of the way. When combined with the 695 he’s won so far, that means he’d fall 29 delegates short of the 1,237 needed to win on the first ballot. Here is the olympic average for each upcoming contest (we’ve left out some contests with only unbound delegates; see the footnotes for more detail)"
"If Trump does, in fact, get 1,208 delegates, he still might win on a first ballot. He would need only a fraction of the delegates that are currently unbound (or will be unbound) to reach 1,237."
"Who exactly are these unbound or uncommitted delegates? Some, like the six from the Virgin Islands, were elected by voters to be “uncommitted,” but they may commit to a candidate closer to the convention. Others, like the 54 Pennsylvania district delegates, are automatically unbound and have been elected as unbound for decades (see: when Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan in the 1976 primary). These delegates are free to choose whichever candidate they want on all ballots.4 In addition, some delegates from candidates who have withdrawn from the race may become available to Trump, depending on the state’s rules. Although it’s hard to know Trump’s exact chance of getting 29 delegates from this group, Trump probably would have a decent shot at reaching 1,237."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-donald-trump-clinch-the-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/
If he is just 29 delegates short it will be much harder to stop him than if it's 170 delegates short. After all, even if 1208 isn't technically 50 percent it's 48 percent.
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