Last night Bernie was again whining about the super delegates but that's part of the system. Despite what he said at the Ohio Town Hall, there is no rule that says if you get the most votes in a state you also get the most delegates.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/bernies-war-against-super-delegates.html
In 2008, the Obama team outfoxed the Hilary team in a number of states based on the understanding that it's a delegate contest not a state by state contest.
The media is certainly selling his narrative right now which just shows how clueless it is. We keep hearing that Michigan changed something even though as far as delegates are concerned it was in no sense a game changer.
"In the final days before Tuesday’s primaries, Bernie Sanders was closing fast in the polls in three of the five states voting, raising the prospect of yet another indecisive Democratic election night, this one marked by Hillary Clinton bolstering her delegate lead but Sanders performing well enough to slingshot into what his campaign argues will be its most important stretch yet."
"The Vermont senator’s best case scenario Tuesday has him pulling out three victories – he’s within single digits of Clinton in the latest polls in Illinois, Missouri and Ohio – an outcome that would rattle the race and raise new questions about the durability of the Clinton campaign."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-220759#ixzz42y5mgJVv
Why would it rattle the race? If her delegate lead increases how does it raise questions about her durability? It's not clear what this road is where falling further behind is a moral victory. Especially as after Michigan, a two point win in Ohio for Bernie wouldn't be shocking.
What the pundits ignore is that Bernie can win 10 2 point wins in a row and it's just getting her closer to the nomination. After today, even if he were to win the three Midwest states-and we don't know that he will-it will end with her at 70 percent of the delegates she needs.
It's true, there are some white states, and white caucuses coming up where Bernie might do well. But these are mostly states worth very few delegates.
The one semi prize is the Washington Caucus. It is worth 118 delegates but even if he gets a big blowout there she still gets 40 delegates, which will just push her closer and closer to the nomination.
My guess is that she will get a big win in Arizona on Saturday and by that point her delegate total will be close to 1800-she only needs 2382. So 40 out of 582 needed delegates would still be a decent hall for her.
The fact is there are not nearly enough delegates in the Bernie caucuses and states coming up even if you give him 60 percent or even 67 percent per state.
Then there is NY which he's being banking on.
“People say Obama was never this far behind,” said Sanders strategist Tad Devine, “but—well California, New York and New Jersey were on Super Tuesday last time too.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-220759#ixzz42y7mgqbi
Ok. But this misses the point that she won New York, California, and New Jersey last time. She won NY by 14 points. I very much doubt Bernie wins it by that much assuming he did at all.
No way do I think he wins NY by 20 points. But say he did: She would still take home 120 delegates. If he won California's 545 delegates by 20 points, she's still take home well over 200 delegates. Again, remember that after this weekend she will need less than 600 delegates to win.
Again, I'm assuming worse case scenario. The math isn't there, though the media doesn't want to admit it.
She won the Southern states by bigger margins than Obama did overall. She actually beat him in Texas and, of course, Arkansas.
All I'm saying, Hillary lovers, is that the media is going to be trying its level best to act like it's panic city for Hillary. But keep your eye on the delegate totals.
P.S. Then I think you have to ask yourself if there isn't something disquieting about the idea that Bernie's plan to win the nomination is built on winning super majorities of white votes in rural states.
But the trouble is that few of these states have enough delegates.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/bernies-war-against-super-delegates.html
In 2008, the Obama team outfoxed the Hilary team in a number of states based on the understanding that it's a delegate contest not a state by state contest.
The media is certainly selling his narrative right now which just shows how clueless it is. We keep hearing that Michigan changed something even though as far as delegates are concerned it was in no sense a game changer.
"In the final days before Tuesday’s primaries, Bernie Sanders was closing fast in the polls in three of the five states voting, raising the prospect of yet another indecisive Democratic election night, this one marked by Hillary Clinton bolstering her delegate lead but Sanders performing well enough to slingshot into what his campaign argues will be its most important stretch yet."
"The Vermont senator’s best case scenario Tuesday has him pulling out three victories – he’s within single digits of Clinton in the latest polls in Illinois, Missouri and Ohio – an outcome that would rattle the race and raise new questions about the durability of the Clinton campaign."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-220759#ixzz42y5mgJVv
Why would it rattle the race? If her delegate lead increases how does it raise questions about her durability? It's not clear what this road is where falling further behind is a moral victory. Especially as after Michigan, a two point win in Ohio for Bernie wouldn't be shocking.
What the pundits ignore is that Bernie can win 10 2 point wins in a row and it's just getting her closer to the nomination. After today, even if he were to win the three Midwest states-and we don't know that he will-it will end with her at 70 percent of the delegates she needs.
It's true, there are some white states, and white caucuses coming up where Bernie might do well. But these are mostly states worth very few delegates.
The one semi prize is the Washington Caucus. It is worth 118 delegates but even if he gets a big blowout there she still gets 40 delegates, which will just push her closer and closer to the nomination.
My guess is that she will get a big win in Arizona on Saturday and by that point her delegate total will be close to 1800-she only needs 2382. So 40 out of 582 needed delegates would still be a decent hall for her.
The fact is there are not nearly enough delegates in the Bernie caucuses and states coming up even if you give him 60 percent or even 67 percent per state.
Then there is NY which he's being banking on.
“People say Obama was never this far behind,” said Sanders strategist Tad Devine, “but—well California, New York and New Jersey were on Super Tuesday last time too.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-220759#ixzz42y7mgqbi
Ok. But this misses the point that she won New York, California, and New Jersey last time. She won NY by 14 points. I very much doubt Bernie wins it by that much assuming he did at all.
No way do I think he wins NY by 20 points. But say he did: She would still take home 120 delegates. If he won California's 545 delegates by 20 points, she's still take home well over 200 delegates. Again, remember that after this weekend she will need less than 600 delegates to win.
Again, I'm assuming worse case scenario. The math isn't there, though the media doesn't want to admit it.
She won the Southern states by bigger margins than Obama did overall. She actually beat him in Texas and, of course, Arkansas.
All I'm saying, Hillary lovers, is that the media is going to be trying its level best to act like it's panic city for Hillary. But keep your eye on the delegate totals.
P.S. Then I think you have to ask yourself if there isn't something disquieting about the idea that Bernie's plan to win the nomination is built on winning super majorities of white votes in rural states.
But the trouble is that few of these states have enough delegates.
No comments:
Post a Comment