Ted Cruz sure is strict:
"Ted Cruz draws a line: He would not support Donald Trump if "he were to go out on Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody" http://wapo.st/1M38KAr
https://twitter.com/DanEggenWPost/status/709499120759738368
Glory, glory. hallelujah, his truth goes marching on.
Come on, Ted Cruz, you are a bit harsh here. You love how now not supporting someone who shot someone is a tough stand.
I've already gamed the Dem race today: Hillary will sharply increase her delegate lead and get herself that much closer to 2382. She is currently at over 50 percent-1231-and will be over 70 percent-1667 delegates- when the day is done.
I say this because there are 792 total delegates in play. So logically, even if she and Bernie split the delegates roughly down the middle this would leave her at about 1631. But it's clear she's headed to a blowout win in Florida for starters which is worth 246 delegates by itself.
As for the GOP:
1. Rubio seems destined to defeat in Florida. I'm looking forward to that one. It's funny but Florida is going to be the best news of the night on both the Dem and GOP side.
2. Kasich is much better positioned to win his home state of Ohio, though polls remain close. I'm still not sure that was a smart move him bringing Mitt Romney in yesterday. That kind of tattoos Kasich as the new Establishment Great White Hope.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/mitt-romney-is-campaigning-with-john.html
I know, Kasich is the conduit of that fraction of the GOP who wants a Republican who doesn't say anything crazy and isn't angry. How big is that percentage you wonder.
But still, I'm not sure Romney does more good than harm.
It also isn't clear whether it's better for Trump if Kasich wins Ohio or not. It would seem not-obviously winning is better than not winning and losing those 66 Ohio delegates.
But Sam Wang actually argues it could be better for Trump if Kasich takes Ohio. I guess one thing it would do is keep it a three man rather than a two man race. This has been the last hope of the anti Trumpists: that he loses a two man race.
"Losing Ohio Improves Trump’s Chances to Win the Nomination."
"Keeping John Kasich in the race divides the anti-Trump vote."
http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-improves-trump%E2%80%99s-chances-win-nomination
"Two months ago, based on a computer model I developed of the Republican delegate race, I wrote in The American Prospect that the GOP’s nomination rules tilted the playing field to Donald Trump’s advantage. For Trump’s opponents, the time window for counteracting many of those advantages and winning a first-ballot nomination has passed. Now the campaign enters a new phase, as Trump’s rivals try to deny him a majority of pledged delegates going into the convention. Simulating the remaining contests based on current polling data, my model picks up an unexpected wrinkle: Trump’s strongest position comes if he loses the primary in Ohio on Tuesday."
"Tomorrow marks the start of an onslaught of winner-take-all elections, which will continue for the rest of the primary season. A winner-take-all rule rewards the first-place finisher even without a majority, and therefore gives the biggest advantage when the field is divided. Two of the first winner-take-all elections take place in Florida and Ohio, the home states of Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich. Winning their home state would provide each of them not only with delegates, but also with the credibility they need for raising money and obtaining other support to continue as candidates. But if they survive, they will continue to divide the anti-Trump vote with Texas Senator Ted Cruz."
http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-improves-trump%E2%80%99s-chances-win-nomination
He points out that most of Rubio's vote will go to the non Trump candidate. It would therefore be better for the non Trump vote to divide between Cruz and Kasich.
"In Florida, Rubio lags Trump by a median of 14.5 percentage points. Assuming Rubio loses and leaves the field, more of his supporters should go to Cruz than to Trump. In exit polls for Michigan and Mississippi, Rubio voters preferred Cruz over Trump by a ratio of four to one, and an ABC-Langer national sample of Republican and Republican-leaning independents got a similar split. So Trump would gain Florida’s 99 delegates, but his future gains would probably be reduced thanks to Rubio’s absence from the race."
"A preview of the effects of a Rubio withdrawal can be seen in Ohio. In four Ohio polls spanning March 2 to 8, Trump leads Kasich by a median of six percentage points. Over the weekend, however, Rubio urged his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich, a strategic move that fulfills Mitt Romney’s recommendation to fight Trump by consolidating around the strongest candidate on a state-by-state basis. Rubio’s median support in Ohio is seven percentage points, and his supporters prefer Kasich or Cruz over Trump by a ratio of 12 to 1. So Kasich's position in Ohio may be quite competitive."
Of course, the paradox, then, is that Rubio actually hurt the anti Trump effort by trying to help Kasich win Ohio. If he really wants to stop Trump he should actually try to stop Kasich in Ohio.
"We are therefore left with an odd situation. Many Republicans who oppose Trump and Cruz are desperately hoping for Kasich to win Ohio, an outcome that Kasich himself certainly wants so that he can stay in the race. But Trump also should hope Kasich wins Ohio, since a decision by Kasich to keep fighting keeps the field divided, offering Trump himself the best chance of getting a majority of delegates and ultimately winning the nomination. The only candidate who should not want Kasich to win Ohio is Ted Cruz."
And Rubio, if his goal is to stop Trump. Or Romney as we know his goal is to stop Trump.
P.S. I don't know where Tom Brown has been last few days. Things are busy with engineering and such?
But in the spirit of Tom here is a great new comment of his buddy E. Harding in the comments section of Money Illusion.
"Ray is wrong, again. Look at Jesus. Look at Trump. Who’s clearly superior? Not Jesus. Could Jesus save the Roman Empire from marauders? Trump will."
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=31558
Trump is superior to Jesus. Now that is a moment in political incorrectness.
"Ted Cruz draws a line: He would not support Donald Trump if "he were to go out on Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody" http://wapo.st/1M38KAr
https://twitter.com/DanEggenWPost/status/709499120759738368
Glory, glory. hallelujah, his truth goes marching on.
Come on, Ted Cruz, you are a bit harsh here. You love how now not supporting someone who shot someone is a tough stand.
I've already gamed the Dem race today: Hillary will sharply increase her delegate lead and get herself that much closer to 2382. She is currently at over 50 percent-1231-and will be over 70 percent-1667 delegates- when the day is done.
I say this because there are 792 total delegates in play. So logically, even if she and Bernie split the delegates roughly down the middle this would leave her at about 1631. But it's clear she's headed to a blowout win in Florida for starters which is worth 246 delegates by itself.
As for the GOP:
1. Rubio seems destined to defeat in Florida. I'm looking forward to that one. It's funny but Florida is going to be the best news of the night on both the Dem and GOP side.
2. Kasich is much better positioned to win his home state of Ohio, though polls remain close. I'm still not sure that was a smart move him bringing Mitt Romney in yesterday. That kind of tattoos Kasich as the new Establishment Great White Hope.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/mitt-romney-is-campaigning-with-john.html
I know, Kasich is the conduit of that fraction of the GOP who wants a Republican who doesn't say anything crazy and isn't angry. How big is that percentage you wonder.
But still, I'm not sure Romney does more good than harm.
It also isn't clear whether it's better for Trump if Kasich wins Ohio or not. It would seem not-obviously winning is better than not winning and losing those 66 Ohio delegates.
But Sam Wang actually argues it could be better for Trump if Kasich takes Ohio. I guess one thing it would do is keep it a three man rather than a two man race. This has been the last hope of the anti Trumpists: that he loses a two man race.
"Losing Ohio Improves Trump’s Chances to Win the Nomination."
"Keeping John Kasich in the race divides the anti-Trump vote."
http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-improves-trump%E2%80%99s-chances-win-nomination
"Two months ago, based on a computer model I developed of the Republican delegate race, I wrote in The American Prospect that the GOP’s nomination rules tilted the playing field to Donald Trump’s advantage. For Trump’s opponents, the time window for counteracting many of those advantages and winning a first-ballot nomination has passed. Now the campaign enters a new phase, as Trump’s rivals try to deny him a majority of pledged delegates going into the convention. Simulating the remaining contests based on current polling data, my model picks up an unexpected wrinkle: Trump’s strongest position comes if he loses the primary in Ohio on Tuesday."
"Tomorrow marks the start of an onslaught of winner-take-all elections, which will continue for the rest of the primary season. A winner-take-all rule rewards the first-place finisher even without a majority, and therefore gives the biggest advantage when the field is divided. Two of the first winner-take-all elections take place in Florida and Ohio, the home states of Senator Marco Rubio and Ohio Governor John Kasich. Winning their home state would provide each of them not only with delegates, but also with the credibility they need for raising money and obtaining other support to continue as candidates. But if they survive, they will continue to divide the anti-Trump vote with Texas Senator Ted Cruz."
http://prospect.org/article/losing-ohio-improves-trump%E2%80%99s-chances-win-nomination
He points out that most of Rubio's vote will go to the non Trump candidate. It would therefore be better for the non Trump vote to divide between Cruz and Kasich.
"In Florida, Rubio lags Trump by a median of 14.5 percentage points. Assuming Rubio loses and leaves the field, more of his supporters should go to Cruz than to Trump. In exit polls for Michigan and Mississippi, Rubio voters preferred Cruz over Trump by a ratio of four to one, and an ABC-Langer national sample of Republican and Republican-leaning independents got a similar split. So Trump would gain Florida’s 99 delegates, but his future gains would probably be reduced thanks to Rubio’s absence from the race."
"A preview of the effects of a Rubio withdrawal can be seen in Ohio. In four Ohio polls spanning March 2 to 8, Trump leads Kasich by a median of six percentage points. Over the weekend, however, Rubio urged his supporters in Ohio to vote for Kasich, a strategic move that fulfills Mitt Romney’s recommendation to fight Trump by consolidating around the strongest candidate on a state-by-state basis. Rubio’s median support in Ohio is seven percentage points, and his supporters prefer Kasich or Cruz over Trump by a ratio of 12 to 1. So Kasich's position in Ohio may be quite competitive."
Of course, the paradox, then, is that Rubio actually hurt the anti Trump effort by trying to help Kasich win Ohio. If he really wants to stop Trump he should actually try to stop Kasich in Ohio.
"We are therefore left with an odd situation. Many Republicans who oppose Trump and Cruz are desperately hoping for Kasich to win Ohio, an outcome that Kasich himself certainly wants so that he can stay in the race. But Trump also should hope Kasich wins Ohio, since a decision by Kasich to keep fighting keeps the field divided, offering Trump himself the best chance of getting a majority of delegates and ultimately winning the nomination. The only candidate who should not want Kasich to win Ohio is Ted Cruz."
And Rubio, if his goal is to stop Trump. Or Romney as we know his goal is to stop Trump.
But in the spirit of Tom here is a great new comment of his buddy E. Harding in the comments section of Money Illusion.
"Ray is wrong, again. Look at Jesus. Look at Trump. Who’s clearly superior? Not Jesus. Could Jesus save the Roman Empire from marauders? Trump will."
http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=31558
Trump is superior to Jesus. Now that is a moment in political incorrectness.
No comments:
Post a Comment