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Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Please Tell Me This isn't Happening

I've been through this a number of times recently: Democrats should want Trump to win the GOP nomination. To be so risk adverse you don't want this race is kind of pitiful.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/if-youre-democrat-you-have-to-want.html

I hear all this 'It would be a nightmare if he were President.' Would it be more of a nightmare than W was or Rubio or Jeb would have been? I don't buy it.

Trump is at least not nearly as rabidly anti choice as Rubio or Kasich are. He also doesn't want to cut Social Security as they do.

But, more importantly, I don't believe Trump wins. The betting odds have her as a 3 to 1 favorite to beat him head to head.

https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html

Against a more conventional GOP candidate, this would be closer to 50-50 rather than 75-25. I will take those odds. To be this risk adverse is just absurd.

Yet, I keep hearing about all these Clinton supporters who voted against Trump in Michigan and might do it again in Ohio.

"Meanwhile, Clinton’s allies expressed less confidence about Ohio than they have been projecting in recent weeks. Top surrogate Tim Ryan, an Ohio congressman, admitted that with Sanders hammering his message of opposing multinational trade deals that put him the senator over the top in Michigan, “I think it’s going to be very close.”

"Part of Clinton’s problem, Ryan predicted, might be Donald Trump: in Ohio’s open primary, reasonable-minded Democrats worried about Trump may vote for GOP Gov. John Kasich rather than casting their votes for Clinton."

“If this were a normal year, I would think Hillary would do very well,” he said. “But there’s a lot of people who want to stop Trump.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/bernie-sanders-hillary-clinton-220759#ixzz42yGM8Cgf

Please tell me this is just an Urban Legend. And why are Hillary supporters more prone to do this than Bernie supporters?

On the other hand I have heard that Bernie supporters are more likely to vote for Kasich today-part of this being that more of them are independents.

Again, on today's totals, I urge Hillary supporters to keep their eye on the ball. That's delegates. I don't know whether he wins Ohio outright or not. But the focus on this question is in itself wrong.

He can win another 2 point win in Ohio. As long as she wins big in Florida she will get a huge increase in her delegate lead today.

In reality, whether he wins by 2 points in Ohio or she wins by 2 points in Ohio shouldn't make all that much difference. But the media is stuck on narratives and right now it's selling Bernie's' narrative.

It was selling the Bernie narrative hard in January and February especially after his blowout win in NH.

But then he lost Nevada and it turned 180. Then she won by 50 in SC and cleaned up on Super Tuesday.

But now he get a 1.5 win in Michigan and it's turned 180 again. Takeaway: the media narrative is always changing based on the latest peaks and valleys.

In the big picture, she is right where she'd want to be right now. I'm serious. She has a 655 delegate lead and his more than 50 percent to 2382.

P.S. If you are a Hillary supporter and you think it's important that you win, do I have to say that you ought to vote for her and let her handle beating Trump in the general? It's sad that this would even need to be said.

Let's just hope this is an Urban Legend.


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