I'm watching Ted Cruz give a victory speech right now which is ironic as he hasn't actually won a state tonight.
Trump won Florida big, and also Illinois, and North Carolina. Kasich won Ohio.
Cruz? He is in a virtual tie with Trump in Missouri. This is enough for him to declare victory. In delegates he had been within 100 delegates of Trump and now trails over 200.
Missouri is kind of the symbolic state on both sides:
"Bottom line: This is a great night for both front-runners, Trump and Clinton, with Cruz and Sanders left clinging to hope for a win in Missouri. A Sanders victory in the Show-Me State would be more of a symbolic, morale-boosting victory, but not meaningful in terms of the math. A Cruz victory in Missouri would be much more meaningful: He’d grab 12 statewide delegates from Trump and maintain some momentum heading into the crucial primaries to come."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/
So Trump's closet challenger, the only other candidate with any kind of mathematic odds to win it for himself outright, Ted Cruz, has had an awful night. He was within 100 delegates and now trails by over 200.
By the way, the GOP hates this guy-Cruz is the guy who singlehandedly pushed his party into a disastrous government shutdown in 2013.
Some are not even sure they'd prefer Cruz to Trump as the nominee.
Kasich won his home state of Ohio, but only by camping down in it for three weeks. He sounded more like a Governor than a Presidential candidate in his victory speech tonight. By the way, he still has under 100 delegates even with the 66 from Ohio and he needs 1237.
It's a mathematical impossibility for him to win outright. He's playing for a brokered convention, full stop.
For this reason, you could argue as a number have, that he ought to get out of the race as he only actually helps Donald Trump. Ted Cruz is the one guy who arguably can pick up Rubio and Kasich's vote and beat Trump in a one on one.
Of course, this is Ted Cruz whose own party hates him, and how could be an even weaker general election candidate than Donald Trump.
John Kasich is an Establishment GOPer. Of course, he has none of the sex appeal, rockstar power that Rubio had-young, good looking, Cuban-the Republican Savior who just fell down the tubes tonight.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/a-big-fall-for-republican-savior.html
Kasich is older, much whiter and cornier. And, Trump did have a good line about him being on the Lehman Brother's board back in the financial crisis.
For the record, Kasich is considered a centrist and is nothing like. Indeed, his positions are about as awful as Marco Rubio's.
"Kasich is being portrayed as the moderate Republican left in the race, with Cruz far to the right and Trump off the charts somewhere to the side. By our measure of candidate ideology based on fundraising, public issue statements and voting, Kasich is more moderate than the average Republican in the 2013-14 Congress. By the standards of a previous era in Republican politics, Kasich is more conservative: He stands to the right of the average GOP member of Congress in 1979-80. And on some issues, notably curbing access to abortion, Kasich is quite conservative."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/
This is why I'm a Trump Democrat. Because he has simply decimated the Republican party.
Nate Silver has been very slow to praise Donald Trump. But he praised him for Florida:
"Presuming that Florida is called for Trump at 8 p.m., most of the focus will be on Rubio’s demise. But let’s be clear: This is also a really impressive performance for Trump. He’s currently getting 46 percent of the vote in a populous, diverse state. Even if more Cruz and Kasich supporters had gone to Rubio, that would be a tough total to beat."
Finally, even with Kasich's Ohio win, Trump may be on a path to 1237:
"The 66 delegates Kasich won in Ohio tonight are a big prize, but Kasich’s continued presence in the race has more ambiguous effects for Republicans hoping to stop Trump."
"According to the estimates we developed last week, Cruz would be leading Trump in Missouri by about 4 percentage points in a two-way race. Cruz would also be leading by about 2 percentage points in North Carolina and trailing Trump by about 2 percentage points in Illinois."
David Wasserman:
"Here’s my gut takeaway from tonight’s primaries: It’s more difficult to see how Trump DOESN’T get to 1,237 delegates from here. He’s beating Cruz in red states, and he’s likely to beat Kasich in future blue states. Most of the delegates at stake from here on out will come from winner-take-all states. Whether #NeverTrump forces realize it or not, they are losing."
Trump won Florida big, and also Illinois, and North Carolina. Kasich won Ohio.
Cruz? He is in a virtual tie with Trump in Missouri. This is enough for him to declare victory. In delegates he had been within 100 delegates of Trump and now trails over 200.
Missouri is kind of the symbolic state on both sides:
"Bottom line: This is a great night for both front-runners, Trump and Clinton, with Cruz and Sanders left clinging to hope for a win in Missouri. A Sanders victory in the Show-Me State would be more of a symbolic, morale-boosting victory, but not meaningful in terms of the math. A Cruz victory in Missouri would be much more meaningful: He’d grab 12 statewide delegates from Trump and maintain some momentum heading into the crucial primaries to come."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/
So Trump's closet challenger, the only other candidate with any kind of mathematic odds to win it for himself outright, Ted Cruz, has had an awful night. He was within 100 delegates and now trails by over 200.
By the way, the GOP hates this guy-Cruz is the guy who singlehandedly pushed his party into a disastrous government shutdown in 2013.
Some are not even sure they'd prefer Cruz to Trump as the nominee.
Kasich won his home state of Ohio, but only by camping down in it for three weeks. He sounded more like a Governor than a Presidential candidate in his victory speech tonight. By the way, he still has under 100 delegates even with the 66 from Ohio and he needs 1237.
It's a mathematical impossibility for him to win outright. He's playing for a brokered convention, full stop.
For this reason, you could argue as a number have, that he ought to get out of the race as he only actually helps Donald Trump. Ted Cruz is the one guy who arguably can pick up Rubio and Kasich's vote and beat Trump in a one on one.
Of course, this is Ted Cruz whose own party hates him, and how could be an even weaker general election candidate than Donald Trump.
John Kasich is an Establishment GOPer. Of course, he has none of the sex appeal, rockstar power that Rubio had-young, good looking, Cuban-the Republican Savior who just fell down the tubes tonight.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/03/a-big-fall-for-republican-savior.html
Kasich is older, much whiter and cornier. And, Trump did have a good line about him being on the Lehman Brother's board back in the financial crisis.
For the record, Kasich is considered a centrist and is nothing like. Indeed, his positions are about as awful as Marco Rubio's.
"Kasich is being portrayed as the moderate Republican left in the race, with Cruz far to the right and Trump off the charts somewhere to the side. By our measure of candidate ideology based on fundraising, public issue statements and voting, Kasich is more moderate than the average Republican in the 2013-14 Congress. By the standards of a previous era in Republican politics, Kasich is more conservative: He stands to the right of the average GOP member of Congress in 1979-80. And on some issues, notably curbing access to abortion, Kasich is quite conservative."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/march-15-primaries-ohio-florida-results-presidential-election-2016/
This is why I'm a Trump Democrat. Because he has simply decimated the Republican party.
Nate Silver has been very slow to praise Donald Trump. But he praised him for Florida:
"Presuming that Florida is called for Trump at 8 p.m., most of the focus will be on Rubio’s demise. But let’s be clear: This is also a really impressive performance for Trump. He’s currently getting 46 percent of the vote in a populous, diverse state. Even if more Cruz and Kasich supporters had gone to Rubio, that would be a tough total to beat."
Finally, even with Kasich's Ohio win, Trump may be on a path to 1237:
"The 66 delegates Kasich won in Ohio tonight are a big prize, but Kasich’s continued presence in the race has more ambiguous effects for Republicans hoping to stop Trump."
"According to the estimates we developed last week, Cruz would be leading Trump in Missouri by about 4 percentage points in a two-way race. Cruz would also be leading by about 2 percentage points in North Carolina and trailing Trump by about 2 percentage points in Illinois."
David Wasserman:
"Here’s my gut takeaway from tonight’s primaries: It’s more difficult to see how Trump DOESN’T get to 1,237 delegates from here. He’s beating Cruz in red states, and he’s likely to beat Kasich in future blue states. Most of the delegates at stake from here on out will come from winner-take-all states. Whether #NeverTrump forces realize it or not, they are losing."
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