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Monday, March 14, 2016

On Tomorrow's Primaries

This will be the big one. The Dem polling firm, PPP, came out with polls of all five Dem primaries this morning.

OH: Clinton 46-41

IL: Clinton 48-45

 MO: Sanders 47-46

 FL: Clinton 57-32

NC: Clinton 56-37

https://twitter.com/ppppolls

What jumps out at you is that the three Midwest states have seemed to tighten a lot the last few days. Has Bernie made up all that ground there? Could be.

But another interpretation is that since he won Michigan, everyone has adjusted their polls and are now assuming a lot more independents.

She is still up big in the Midwest states among Dems.

Clinton up 55/37 w/ Dems in OH, 59/37 in IL, 56/39 in MO. But huge crossover support makes Sanders wins possible."
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/709334381513613312

So part of it is how many independents show up. After Michigan, perhaps the pollsters are assuming a lot more.
In any case, even if Bernie wins all three states, she is right where she needs to be. If she wins big in NC and Florida then this race will be for all intents and purposes over.

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