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Saturday, March 5, 2016

Marco Rubio (not) Rising

I've argued that his attempt to out Trump Donald Trump has been an abysmal failure. Since he started that his poll numbers have flagged. He had an awful Super Tuesday which is why he now can't win the nomination without a brokered convention.

Why might it not be working for him? I think part of it is that it's a 180 for how he has represented himself for 8 months. Once again, he looks inauthentic. Also, you're not going to out Trump Donald Trump. Cruz and Kaisch have been smarter in staying in their own lanes.

The latest Michigan polls tell the story. Trump is 42, Cruz 20, Kasich at 18, and Rubio at 14. Another very recent poll: Trump is at 42, Cruz at 19, Rubio at 15, Kasich at 14.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_republican_presidential_primary-3933.html

If you look at most states now, you see Rubio in third-or sometimes even fourth behind Kasich.

And at least Kasich looks to be in striking distance to win Ohio. Rubio is nowhere near winning Florida. And his team has basically admitted it now:

1. He has to win Florida

2. He is currently trailing badly

3. He is going to laser focus on coming back in Florida. Some suggest he should now just throw all his chips in his home state. As if that isn't sad enough-being reduced to having to campaign there every day just to win your own home state.

"Rubio scrambles to undo Trump in Florida."

But his team admits he’s behind the eight-ball and Republicans see an organization activating too late.

Polls show it. Elections data indicate it. The political class frets about it. And now his own campaign manager admits it.

Marco Rubio is losing his home state of Florida — the place he has guaranteed he’d win on March 15.

"Yes,” Rubio’s campaign manager, Terry Sullivan, said when asked if the Florida senator is trailing Donald Trump at home. “But it doesn’t matter. We’re going to win Florida.”

"These are dark days for the Rubio campaign, and they might be his last. The confidence Sullivan has in a Florida victory does not extend much beyond Rubio’s staff and his longtime backers."

"According to Republican consultants and political observers from Tallahassee to Orlando to Tampa to Miami, there’s virtually no evidence that Rubio has the robust campaign in place that’s needed to shrink — let alone overcome — Trump’s lead, which ranges from 7 to 20 percentage points, depending on the poll. For weeks, his team hasn’t blanketed known early voters with mail, and they weren't calling Republicans statewide until just a few days ago."

“There needs to be a flashing red light on Rubio’s headquarters: This is an emergency,” said Tony Fabrizio, a national Republican pollster and consultant who worked on Gov. Rick Scott’s two successful campaigns. “If I’m Terry Sullivan, I need to start thinking hard about pulling back from these other states as much as I can and making Florida a last stand. Florida is Rubio’s last stand. If he loses, he’s finished.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/rubio-scrambles-to-undo-trump-in-florida-220243#ixzz421wZdX00

Meanwhile Ted Cruz is smartly looking to bury Rubio in Florida.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/04/politics/ted-cruz-marco-rubio-florida/

P.S, I've heard Rubio's team is hoping for Jeb's endorsement. That will be interesting. Will Jeb do what many would say is the best interests of the party? Or is he still too mad that Little Marco stepped on his toes by running this primary in the first place?

In any case, for Rubio it's basically under two weeks to right this.

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