Tuesday, August 9, 2016

Trump is Only up by 2 in Missouri in New Poll

Expanding the map is right:

"Trump 44% (+2) Clinton 42% Johnson 5% Stein 2%."

It's very nice to see Jill Stein at only 2%-just as a Survey Monkey poll also showed today-while Hil has a 10 point lead in that one.

What is going on though? Missouri a 2 point race?

Meanwhile, even a seriously Trump leaning poll that had him up by 7 points last week has HRC up now.

"National General Election: Clinton 45% (+2) Trump 43% @USCDornsife/@LAtimes Daybreak Tracking Poll (08/08)."

There's clearly something wrong with the poll's methodology. The averages have her up by 8 points now. But the trend is still strongly towards Hillary.

As for Trump's economic speech, I will look at it later in more detail but for now a few thoughts:

1. Because Trump has failed to unify the party he had to give a real 101 Republican supply side speech. But part of his appeal was that he supposedly got off that script.

It's all the usual SS wishlist-that makes ending the inheritance tax as the lynchpin of the proposal! And this is supposed to benefit the 'white working class' he was allegedly speaking to in Detroit yesterday?

2. So it was a boilerplate GOP econ speech with the exception that he's virulently anti trade-though he claims he's for 'good trade deals'; I'd like him to point to a good trade deal in history. 

"So Trumponomics is standard voodoo with a squirt of protectionism on top. This is supposed to be exciting and turn around his campaign?"

3. I'm not a fan of GOP econ, but even so, on a purely stylistic basis it was a very poor effort.

4. Trump did hit the low bar of staying on his teleprompter-yes, he even restrained from attacking protestors.

5. But if Trump unleashed is a unhinged, the teleprompter Trump is a real borefest. The best know how to read a teleprompter as if they are talking.

Trump is so bad at it, that it's terrible. While he mocks others for using it, most of them are better at it than he is.

So Trump trying to play a serious candidate, is just painful to watch. If he had campaigned like this in the primary he would have failed to get a single vote. He's lower energy than Jeb on the teleprompter.

But he certainly can't win being unleashed in the general. Hence the catch 22. Being himself can't win the general but he's really bad at being a normal politician.

1 comment:

  1. But if Trump unleashed is a unhinged, the teleprompter Trump is a real borefest.

    RedState nails it: he's like Will Ferrel on SNL doing his Jacob Silj character: Jacob suffers from VIS (voice immodulation syndrome):