Monday, August 8, 2016

Hugh Hewitt's Etch a Sketch Theory

He was on Meet the Press and thinks Trump can change in September and everyone will forget everything that has happened this year.

Mark Halperin talked as if this is tied race that will come down to the economy.

So this is just 2012 again between a generic Republican and a generic Democrat?

I was watching CNN's Reliable Sources with Brian Stelter and I noticed that some more Trump supporters on his show are saying 'Wait till Labor Day.'

By the way, I was skeptical of Stelter's show about Trump supporters.

I groused to Stelter on Twitter about false equivalence. He urged that I watch it first. I did and was pleasantly surprised. Clearly he has grappled with the issue of false equivalence.

In any case 'Wait till September' seems to be the new Trump narrative. He can come back September 6. They also evoke George H.W. Bush 1988.

But there were some differences there. Starting with H.W. had a lead once his convention was done. And the 1988 GOP after 8 years of Reagan was very unified post convention.

But this is the narrative I've noticed. Indeed, you even hear Trump saying how early it is.

So this seems to be what they have left. After all, the polls have abandoned him.

"Last but not least, Trump lost his best friend this past week: polls. Long the rhetorical crutch that he could lean on even when he was under withering attack for something he said or did — "the polls show me winning," was his constant refrain — the polls abandoned Trump over the past seven days."

Nate Cohn observes:

"Morning Consult is Clinton+9, up from Clinton+3 immediately after the DNC. Consistent with theory that more is at play than the bounce."

Yes. Chris Cillizza called Trump's week the worst week in Washington but it may be the worst Washington week in history for a POTUS candidate in any case.

So now we're hearing that Trump will come back after labor day-the theory is that with the Olympics going on, there will be less attention and then he'll reset.

Two problems.

1. It's tough to imagine him resetting.

2. Even if he does do you really believe everyone will forget what he's said for the last 14 months?

Trump probably won't "pivot" and even if he tried, the public isn't amnesiac and won't forget everything he's done and said for a year+."

Things are so bad that Trump supporters are already talking about unskewed polls.

"The amount of "unskewing" already going on is an extraordinarily bearish indicator for Trump."

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