Wednesday, August 10, 2016

Hillary Has a Better Shot at Winning Kansas Than Trump Does of Winning the Presidency

Trump has just a 5 point lead in Kansas, 44-39.

Romney won the state by 22 points. There he goes expanding the map again. To Hillary Clinton. We're seeing her competitive and even leading in states we never thought we'd see her competitive in.

Nate Silver

"In the @FiveThirtyEight polls-only model, Clinton has a better chance of winning Kansas than Trump has of winning the presidency"

Meanwhile, the possible new GOP POTUS candidate could swing Utah to Hillary.

It's Hillary's race to lose at this point:

For this reason, Bruce Bartlett says this:

I hope Hillary has a 100-day plan to get some important stuff accomplished in case she does get a mandate. No time to waste.

Bartlett has a good suggestion for Hillary:

"At some point, Hillary needs to turn her attention heavily toward bringing in a Democratic Congress with her."

However, by winning big at the top this will contribute a lot in this regard. A high single digit Hillary win-or even a double digit win which by the time it's over may not be unthinkable would imperil even the GOP House.

I think if Hillary campaigned saying, "Just give us 2 years to see what no gridlock can accomplish," I think it would resonate with voters."

I do think that even if the GOP still remains in charge in the House-but quite possibly with a much reduced majority, potential for getting things done will be there.

I agree with Jennifer Rubin that Paul Ryan might work with Hillary. Yes, Ryan is an ideologue. But he's a responsible leader-the best GOP leader they've had in years.

He probably will understand his own party has been rebuked and that the only way to do anything for his own legacy, much less make him a viable POTUS candidate is to at least cooperate with Hillary. Show some good faith in trying to work with her where there is a agreement.

There could be some. She might well do some sort of tax reform if it's in conjunction with some of her big priorities-immigration, student debt, etc.

Ryan should at least look at the old Scott Sumner playbook. Dems want to raise the MW and Ryan doesn't but should at least offer to raise the Earned Income Tax Credit.

Hillary will insist on raising the MW and Ryan would have to cave some-as its' clear who has the mandate.

But he could negotiate for a lower MW raise than Dems want in exchange for much more generous EITC.

The GOP will it seems to me have at least three different wings or sects in 2017-18. The Trump wing, the Cruz Tea Party wing, and the Paul Ryan wing.

Each side will insist that they offer the future for the GOP.

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