Monday, August 8, 2016

Hillary Clinton's Bounce is Holding Steady

CNN's poll of the polls has her up by 10 points.

"CNN's "Poll of Polls" Nationally: Clinton 45% (+10) Trump 35% Johnson (L) 9% Stein (G) 5%"

So she's at 45% even with Johnson and Stein.

"The post-convention polls are in, and they consistently show Hillary Clinton entering the next phase of the presidential election campaign with the upper hand over Donald Trump."

"The CNN Poll of Polls incorporating the results of six major polls -- all conducted after the party conventions concluded in late July -- finds Clinton with an average of 49% support to Trump's 39%. When third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are included, the margin remains the same, with both candidates losing the same amount of support to land at 45% for Clinton to 35% for Trump, with Johnson at 9% and Stein at 5%."
"The new averages reflect a sharp increase in support for Clinton compared with pre-convention polls. The last CNN Poll of Polls, analyzing the results of five national, live-interviewer telephone polls conducted before the GOP convention began, found Clinton ahead 45% to 41%."

"But across nearly all polls released following the Democrats' nominating convention in Philadelphia, Clinton has regained a significant advantage."

"The candidate holding a lead after both major party conventions are complete nearly always goes on to win the presidency in recent history. One exception was Al Gore in 2000, who held a 4-point lead in CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted after the completion of his convention. Gore, the sitting vice president at the time, went on to win the popular vote by about half a percentage point while losing to George W. Bush in the Electoral College."

Note that the difference with Gore was that he hadn't led prior to the conventions. What history finds is that the candidate who leads the polling averages wins. Hillary has a roughly 5 point lead in the averages since Trump wrapped up the nomination in early May. 

Harry Enten on Hillary's bounce:

"Election Update: Clinton’s Post-Convention Bump Is Holding Steady."

"Our best bet: Wait a couple more weeks to see where the dust settles. Ournow-cast, for example, which projects what would happen in a hypothetical election held today, has Clinton winning the popular vote by 8 percentage points. My guess is that that will tick down a couple of points in the coming days. Our polls-plus model, which accounts for convention bounces and so discounts some of Clinton’s recent surge, projects her to win on Nov. 8 by 4 points. And our polls-only model, which basically takes the polls at face-value, projects her to win by 7."

"But it’s also possible that Clinton’s strong numbers aren’t solely the result of a fleeting post-convention afterglow. As my colleague Nate Silver pointed out on Friday, Trump’s recent struggles — his attacks on the Khan family and feuds with Republican leadership, for instance — could be inflicting more durable damage to his chances. Trump is the least-liked major party nominee in modern history. Perhaps the conventions and their aftermath, when many voters presumably tuned into the 2016 race for the first time, established a new equilibrium. Perhaps this is 1988 all over again, with the parties reversed."

"In 1988, Republican George H.W. Bush, looking to succeed an increasingly popular Ronald Reagan and give his party a third term in the White House, was trailing Democrat Michael Dukakis going into the conventions. But the conventions reset the race. Immediately after the conventions, Bush led Dukakis by an average of about 6 percentage points. In November, Bush defeated Dukakis by 8 points. Now, this year could end up being very different than 1988. Like Bush in 1988, however, Clinton is trying to replace a two-term president from her party whose popularity has been growing."

"Still, Trump is an unprecedented candidate, so looking to history is only so useful. My best advice is patience. Clinton clearly has a better shot of winning this election than Trump. Just how much better will become clearer in the next few weeks."

He's an unprecedented candidate but it seems to me in a way that makes his road steeper rather than smoother.

"Morning Consult is Clinton+9, up from Clinton+3 immediately after the DNC. Consistent with theory that more is at play than the bounce."

No comments:

Post a Comment