I think in many ways, Trump just did to the prolife movement what he's been doing to the larger GOP and conservative movement. He took a bullhorn to something that's supposed to be handled with a dog whistle.
His recent comments about women being punished for having abortions at the Chris Matthews town hall has allowed him to dominate the news cycle again for another 48 hours. Is this going to be what really does bring him down this time?
I'm not sure. As usual you see too many talking heads running to declare him done. These are the same folks who have been wrong all along so I hesitate to join them. I will just admit I don't know. It is certainly a gift for Hillary and the Dems in the general but could it be the smoking gun for the GOP to deny him the nomination?
Again, I don't know. I mean, in theory, this could give John Kasich something to hit Trump in NY and the North East with. To be sure, Kasich's pretty 'severe' on abortion himself.
What isn't appreciated is to the extent that Trump believes that often even negative coverage is a great thing, that if they are all talking about you, you're doing something right.
http://www.amazon.com/Trump-Art-Deal-Donald-J/dp/0399594493/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1459510990&sr=8-1&keywords=donald+trump+art+of+the+deal
The betting markets clearly see this as hurting Donald Trump. In the last few days the odds of him winning the nomination have fallen from 70 percent to 55 percent. His chances of actually winning the general have fallen from 20 percent to 15 percent.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
At this point, whoever GOP nomination it will be a disaster in November.
1. Trump will be a disaster
2. But the GOP taking it away from someone with a strong plurality of the votes to someone with a clear minority like Kasich-or even someone who didn't run at all like Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney-will also be a complete disaster.
But beyond the fact that the GOP is approaching disaster this election cycle, Trump did something else very important in his Matthews town hall. He unwittingly spilled the beans on the so-called prolife movement.
While his position that women who receive abortions must receive some kind of penalty was shocking, it actually put a finger on the moral incoherence and political hypocrisy of the entire movement. This is why the prolifers are so upset with him.
I buy a lot of what Rush Limbaugh said yesterday about what happened to Trump here. Basically Trump is not an ideological conservative, and has never been ideological about abortion. Because prolife is not his natural intellectual position he made a rookie mistake.
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/03/31/gag_order_update_explaining_trump_stumbling_into_chris_matthews_abortion_trap_is_not_an_endorsement
Chris Matthews did a great job of taking him down an intellectual rabbit hole.
For those who want the media to ask Trump tough questions. Matthews showed what can work. He didn't come out there necessarily and immediately sanction Trump or condemn him a la Megan Kelly, but instead was able to sort of engage him in a conversation and let Trump hang himself.
Trump tried to turn it around and point out that Matthews as a Catholic should be prolife. Matthews replied 'Yeah, but that's religion. You're about the law.'
What Trump missed is the political game the prolife movement plays. A game that is morally incoherent. They say the want to just punish the 'abortionist' and not the woman.
Ted Cruz, for instance, says that doctors who perform the operation should get the death penalty. As draconian as that is enables him to still say 'But I won't punish the woman.'
Sure, she won't worry going to get an operation where her doctor could be subject to the death penalty.
Here's the problem.
1. If you believe abortion is murder.
2. Then why shouldn't a woman who 'kills her baby' be charged for murder? That was great when Matthews said to Trump 'Fines? You want a fine for murder?!'
It does beg a question. If it's murder why wouldn't she be punished? Why is only the doctor morally and legally liable? What makes the doctor a hypnotist such that she commits murder against her own will?
Put it this way. If a woman killed her own six month old, no one would have a problem figuring out what she had done and what should be done to her-prosecuted for murder.
But the prolifers claim there is no moral difference between killing a six month old baby and having an abortion. Indeed, some have gone as far as to praise those who bomb clinics as freedom fighters. And why not? If you believe there is a human holocaust going on, then they are freedom fighters.
Yet the prolife movement claims that it doesn't want to punish women, just the hypnotists who talk them into killing their own babies.
"Apparently Trump wasn’t aware of the fantastical but common Republican refrain that while abortion should be illegal, women themselves shouldn’t be punished – a diplomatic but wholly dishonest response in a country where women have already been jailed for ending their pregnancies. Trump also acknowledged that if abortion were banned, women would seek out the procedure in “illegal places,” once again stepping in the anti-choice party line that insists pre-Roe back alley abortions are a myth."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/31/donald-trump-abortion-comments-terryifying-truth-for-women
Yes, in a way, Trump's mention of back alley abortions again shows he's not really a prolifer.
"That’s why Trump’s comments not only angered pro-choice activists, but those on the right who have spent an awful lot of time trying to convince Americans that overturning Roe v Wade isn’t anti-woman. Talking about “punishment” reminds voters exactly what outlawing abortion would mean for the one out of three American women who end a pregnancy. They don’t want us to think about the more than 100,000 women in Texas who have already attempted to self-abort, or the woman in Tennessee who was arrested after trying to end her pregnancy with a coat hanger."
What this means to Trump's chances of getting the GOP nomination we will have to see. Only time will tell. I do think there is an overeagerness as always to declare Trump over. But it is notable that the betting markets see this as a big deal.
What is clear though is that Trump opened a can of worms not just for himself but for the prolife movement. One that presents an opportunity for the prochoice movement. A major cornerstone of the entire prolife movement has been cracked open.
His recent comments about women being punished for having abortions at the Chris Matthews town hall has allowed him to dominate the news cycle again for another 48 hours. Is this going to be what really does bring him down this time?
I'm not sure. As usual you see too many talking heads running to declare him done. These are the same folks who have been wrong all along so I hesitate to join them. I will just admit I don't know. It is certainly a gift for Hillary and the Dems in the general but could it be the smoking gun for the GOP to deny him the nomination?
Again, I don't know. I mean, in theory, this could give John Kasich something to hit Trump in NY and the North East with. To be sure, Kasich's pretty 'severe' on abortion himself.
What isn't appreciated is to the extent that Trump believes that often even negative coverage is a great thing, that if they are all talking about you, you're doing something right.
http://www.amazon.com/Trump-Art-Deal-Donald-J/dp/0399594493/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1459510990&sr=8-1&keywords=donald+trump+art+of+the+deal
The betting markets clearly see this as hurting Donald Trump. In the last few days the odds of him winning the nomination have fallen from 70 percent to 55 percent. His chances of actually winning the general have fallen from 20 percent to 15 percent.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
At this point, whoever GOP nomination it will be a disaster in November.
1. Trump will be a disaster
2. But the GOP taking it away from someone with a strong plurality of the votes to someone with a clear minority like Kasich-or even someone who didn't run at all like Paul Ryan or Mitt Romney-will also be a complete disaster.
But beyond the fact that the GOP is approaching disaster this election cycle, Trump did something else very important in his Matthews town hall. He unwittingly spilled the beans on the so-called prolife movement.
While his position that women who receive abortions must receive some kind of penalty was shocking, it actually put a finger on the moral incoherence and political hypocrisy of the entire movement. This is why the prolifers are so upset with him.
I buy a lot of what Rush Limbaugh said yesterday about what happened to Trump here. Basically Trump is not an ideological conservative, and has never been ideological about abortion. Because prolife is not his natural intellectual position he made a rookie mistake.
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2016/03/31/gag_order_update_explaining_trump_stumbling_into_chris_matthews_abortion_trap_is_not_an_endorsement
Chris Matthews did a great job of taking him down an intellectual rabbit hole.
For those who want the media to ask Trump tough questions. Matthews showed what can work. He didn't come out there necessarily and immediately sanction Trump or condemn him a la Megan Kelly, but instead was able to sort of engage him in a conversation and let Trump hang himself.
Trump tried to turn it around and point out that Matthews as a Catholic should be prolife. Matthews replied 'Yeah, but that's religion. You're about the law.'
What Trump missed is the political game the prolife movement plays. A game that is morally incoherent. They say the want to just punish the 'abortionist' and not the woman.
Ted Cruz, for instance, says that doctors who perform the operation should get the death penalty. As draconian as that is enables him to still say 'But I won't punish the woman.'
Sure, she won't worry going to get an operation where her doctor could be subject to the death penalty.
Here's the problem.
1. If you believe abortion is murder.
2. Then why shouldn't a woman who 'kills her baby' be charged for murder? That was great when Matthews said to Trump 'Fines? You want a fine for murder?!'
It does beg a question. If it's murder why wouldn't she be punished? Why is only the doctor morally and legally liable? What makes the doctor a hypnotist such that she commits murder against her own will?
Put it this way. If a woman killed her own six month old, no one would have a problem figuring out what she had done and what should be done to her-prosecuted for murder.
But the prolifers claim there is no moral difference between killing a six month old baby and having an abortion. Indeed, some have gone as far as to praise those who bomb clinics as freedom fighters. And why not? If you believe there is a human holocaust going on, then they are freedom fighters.
Yet the prolife movement claims that it doesn't want to punish women, just the hypnotists who talk them into killing their own babies.
"Apparently Trump wasn’t aware of the fantastical but common Republican refrain that while abortion should be illegal, women themselves shouldn’t be punished – a diplomatic but wholly dishonest response in a country where women have already been jailed for ending their pregnancies. Trump also acknowledged that if abortion were banned, women would seek out the procedure in “illegal places,” once again stepping in the anti-choice party line that insists pre-Roe back alley abortions are a myth."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/mar/31/donald-trump-abortion-comments-terryifying-truth-for-women
Yes, in a way, Trump's mention of back alley abortions again shows he's not really a prolifer.
"That’s why Trump’s comments not only angered pro-choice activists, but those on the right who have spent an awful lot of time trying to convince Americans that overturning Roe v Wade isn’t anti-woman. Talking about “punishment” reminds voters exactly what outlawing abortion would mean for the one out of three American women who end a pregnancy. They don’t want us to think about the more than 100,000 women in Texas who have already attempted to self-abort, or the woman in Tennessee who was arrested after trying to end her pregnancy with a coat hanger."
What this means to Trump's chances of getting the GOP nomination we will have to see. Only time will tell. I do think there is an overeagerness as always to declare Trump over. But it is notable that the betting markets see this as a big deal.
What is clear though is that Trump opened a can of worms not just for himself but for the prolife movement. One that presents an opportunity for the prochoice movement. A major cornerstone of the entire prolife movement has been cracked open.
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