There are a few schools of thought regarding the GOP primary.
1. Trump has to get 1237 delegates to win the nomination. If he gets 1236, he's out. Of course, this begs some questions. If it's not Trump who is it? Morning Joe rightfully was doubtful this morning that Cruz can get to 1237 on a second ballot.
You can say that Trump has to get 50.1 percent of the delegates and if he doesn't, he's not the nominee. But how do you justify going with Ted Cruz who could go in with less than a third of the total delegates?
Or John Kasich, with 10 percent of the delegates?
And Paul Ryan has now stated the Ryan Rule which says only those who actually ran for President can be on the ballot. Some are saying this means that people who already lost could come out the choice. I don't think they get away with nominating Marco Rubio who lost his own home state by almost 20 points.
2. The other school is that if Trump gets close to 1237, he's the nominee. How close is close? 1236 is close. How about 1200 or 1150? Right now based on the polls, he could very easily have 1000 by the time all these Northeastern states vote on April 26.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html
Now some in the RNC say that Trump only has to get 1100.
"There is a new magic number of delegates that would allow GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to secure the party's nomination, at least according to Republican National Committee official Randy Evans."
"Evans, a member of the rules committee, told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Wednesday that Trump just needs 1,100 delegates to win the nomination—not the 1,237 delegates that have been widely accepted as the must-have number."
"Evans later told a reporter that he does not believe Trump will win the nomination automatically with 1,100 delegates, according to Politico. But Evans argued that if Trump does have 1,100 delegates when he arrives in Cleveland, he'll be able to shore up enough uncommitted delegates to get to the 1,237-delegate threshold."
"He further warned that the math gets fuzzy if Trump arrives in Cleveland with between 1,000 and 1,100 delegates. If Trump gets to the convention with fewer than 1,100, Evans predicted a contentious floor fight."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/randy-evans-trump-1100-delegates
The truth is, that if the nominee were someone more conventional than Donald Trump, there's be no question that if he comes up a few delegates short of 1237 he gets the nomination.
By the way: where does John Kasich get his next win? These NE states give him the chance to come in second in some states but most of these are winner take all. NY and Connecticut are proportional but he is not going to get a lot of delegates in either state.
As Nate Silver says:
"It's not that the Kasich campaign has a bad strategy. More that it doesn't have *any* strategy."
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/719691416511909888
I don't see how he wins a single NE state. But if not, what is his path to victory? He won his home state of Ohio by a few points and he's not crazy?
He's hoping to win a third or fourth vote in Cleveland. But how can the delegates justify voting for someone who has won just his home state of Ohio?
On the other hand, it is probably in Trump's interest for him to stay in.
1. Trump has to get 1237 delegates to win the nomination. If he gets 1236, he's out. Of course, this begs some questions. If it's not Trump who is it? Morning Joe rightfully was doubtful this morning that Cruz can get to 1237 on a second ballot.
You can say that Trump has to get 50.1 percent of the delegates and if he doesn't, he's not the nominee. But how do you justify going with Ted Cruz who could go in with less than a third of the total delegates?
Or John Kasich, with 10 percent of the delegates?
And Paul Ryan has now stated the Ryan Rule which says only those who actually ran for President can be on the ballot. Some are saying this means that people who already lost could come out the choice. I don't think they get away with nominating Marco Rubio who lost his own home state by almost 20 points.
2. The other school is that if Trump gets close to 1237, he's the nominee. How close is close? 1236 is close. How about 1200 or 1150? Right now based on the polls, he could very easily have 1000 by the time all these Northeastern states vote on April 26.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html
Now some in the RNC say that Trump only has to get 1100.
"There is a new magic number of delegates that would allow GOP frontrunner Donald Trump to secure the party's nomination, at least according to Republican National Committee official Randy Evans."
"Evans, a member of the rules committee, told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Wednesday that Trump just needs 1,100 delegates to win the nomination—not the 1,237 delegates that have been widely accepted as the must-have number."
"Evans later told a reporter that he does not believe Trump will win the nomination automatically with 1,100 delegates, according to Politico. But Evans argued that if Trump does have 1,100 delegates when he arrives in Cleveland, he'll be able to shore up enough uncommitted delegates to get to the 1,237-delegate threshold."
"He further warned that the math gets fuzzy if Trump arrives in Cleveland with between 1,000 and 1,100 delegates. If Trump gets to the convention with fewer than 1,100, Evans predicted a contentious floor fight."
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/randy-evans-trump-1100-delegates
The truth is, that if the nominee were someone more conventional than Donald Trump, there's be no question that if he comes up a few delegates short of 1237 he gets the nomination.
By the way: where does John Kasich get his next win? These NE states give him the chance to come in second in some states but most of these are winner take all. NY and Connecticut are proportional but he is not going to get a lot of delegates in either state.
As Nate Silver says:
"It's not that the Kasich campaign has a bad strategy. More that it doesn't have *any* strategy."
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/719691416511909888
I don't see how he wins a single NE state. But if not, what is his path to victory? He won his home state of Ohio by a few points and he's not crazy?
He's hoping to win a third or fourth vote in Cleveland. But how can the delegates justify voting for someone who has won just his home state of Ohio?
On the other hand, it is probably in Trump's interest for him to stay in.
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