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Thursday, April 14, 2016

Hillary Up 17 Points in New York NBC Poll

Bernie is not exactly getting traction here in the Empire State. A new Marist poll shows him down 57-40. The same pollster had it at 55-41 on Monday.

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/720718389472337921

As Harry Enten says:

"3 things help Clinton in New York: 1. Diverse. 2. A slew of wealthy voters. 3. Jews. Tough for Sanders to overcome."

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/720724537252450307

Wall St. is kind of a big part of the NY economy and Bernie is only calling for the dismantling of the entire banking sector.

Tonight's the big debate. I'm sure Hil does fine-we know she's a great debater. But overall, I kind of agree with Charles Blow. I will be glad when this entire primary is over.

"And the truth is that very little about this race has changed in the last month, though some might argue that Cruz has a gust of wind in his sails and Sanders’s string of recent victories is impressive. But what largely gives the appearance of change is that contests have been held in states that favor a particular candidate over others. This gives the impression of momentum, when in fact it is simply a function of the map."

"The basic foundation of support remains relatively unchanged, and if those dynamics persist until all the contests have been completed, simple math tell us that the front-runners now will be the front-runners then."

"We are just watching cars crash in slow motion."

"That’s boring. There is a tremendous political media infrastructure whose job it is to make this sound like it’s still interesting, fascinating even, but it’s just not. It’s boring."

"It won’t truly be interesting again, at least not for me, until we reach the potential chaos of the conventions, and after that, move into the general election, where the contrasts in visions for the future of this country will likely be as stark as they’ve ever been."

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/14/opinion/campaign-stops/campaigns-of-ultimate-disappointment.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&smtyp=cur

I can't wait for the conventions-the GOP will provide comic relief.

I totally disagree with Greg Sargent's talk of offering up reforms to the Berners in exchange for ending the primary. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/04/14/a-path-to-peace-among-democrats-jane-sanders-hints-at-a-way-forward/

I looked at this the other day. I'm all for ending the caucuses-though the trouble is this is a state thing where primaries cost more than caucuses. But I don't see why we shouldn't have closed primaries and there is no reason you can't have multiple states on one day. 

Is Sargent's reason for this to placate the Berners or he somehow sees the party as needing these reforms? 

He then asks this?

"Does Hillary camp see any need to acknowledge power of #FeelTheBern? It's not clear to me they do:

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/720684897183129600

I don't see any need and hopefully Hillary World doesn't either. Sorry, but every primary someone finishes second and this doesn't mean the party lobotomizes itself to please you.

As for whether the Berners vote for her in the Fall, I really don't worry much about that. I think the Obama Coalition will and what the Berners do is up to them. She can win without their vote.

P.S. Not everyone who supported or voted for Bernie is a 'Berner'-just the mostly young subset who aren't regular voters. If someone didn't vote for Obama in 2012, it hardly worries me if they vow not to vote this time, either.


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