The recent polling seems to suggest it. Benchmark Politics which has been pretty accurate, had Hillary up by 10 points-55-45- for Tuesday's Pennsylvania's Dem primary.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/according-to-benchmark-politics-next.html
However, a Frank and Marshall poll came out last week that had her up by 27 points. At the time, it wasn't clear whether this was an outlier. The assumption based on demographics was closer to the 10 point margin of BM.
They did say, however, that if they saw more polls like this they'd revise their benchmark upwards. This morning we got this from the Bernie team:
"His goalposts have shifted in recent months. When it became clear earlier in April that New York was out of reach, people close to Sanders started suggesting Pennsylvania was the real prize — but even that rhetoric has softened as polls continue to show Clinton holding a lead there."
"Sanders’ team thinks he lost ground in Pennsylvania after his wider-than-expected margin of defeat in New York, which it believes got out-sized attention because it was the only state voting last week. And now, while Clinton is set to rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, a sign of her camp’s confidence in the state, Sanders is eager to project the image that he’s looking ahead to the states ahead, opting to host an event in West Virginia — where he’s likely to win, but which does not vote until May 10."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/sanders-caught-in-political-trap-222380#ixzz46rfgHWap
There is some irony here.
1. Bernie himself is the one who put so much attention on Pennsylvania. He had boldly declared he was going to win NY and his team had called it a 'must win'-that they were going to win.
2. The further irony is that his team has also been complaining that there is something unfair about having multiple primaries on the same day: this is yet another way that the 'Establishment' has somehow manipulated the results.
Anyway, it was notable as well that Bernie's team was admitting they have lost ground-internal polls are usually more frequent and accurate.
We've just gotten a slew of polls that seem to confirm that he has indeed lost ground post NY.
A new Harper poll has her up 28 points: 61-33; and a new ARG poll has it at 20 points: 58-38.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html
Benchmark Politics tweeted:
"ARG +20% for Clinton. PA about to get major revision in benchmarks."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/724663608479641600
In that vein, there were some PPP polls out this morning that showed Bernie with a 4 point lead in Rhode Island and just two back in Connecticut.
BM revised RI again-they had HRC up by 6 before. Now it's more or less a tie-she literally leads by about .25 percent.
However, they haven't cut their revising on CT even though this 2 point race is the closet poll we've seen. They are keeping their benchmark at 55-45.
Finally, a new poll shows Katie McGinty ahead of Joe Sestak for Pennsylvania Senate, 39-33 after being behind 16 in early March and 10 in early April
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-4327.html#polls
I'd love to say my endorsement had something to do with it.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/id-like-to-endorse-katie-mcginty-for.html
It didn't, but I'd love to say it!
I also endorsed Chris Van Hollen for Maryland Senate and one more: how about Kathleen Matthews for Maryland's 8th Congressional district?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kathleen-matthews-our-choice-in-marylands-8th-district/2016/03/16/e8a911c2-ea27-11e5-bc08-3e03a5b41910_story.html
Let me be clear: my endorsement here is totally irrelevant and not necessary. Ms. Matthews surely doesn't need my help winning tomorrow.
But I'd like to see if I can be 3 for 3 tomorrow in endorsements. Again, correlation is certainly not causation in this case.
Not counting Hillary of course...
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/according-to-benchmark-politics-next.html
However, a Frank and Marshall poll came out last week that had her up by 27 points. At the time, it wasn't clear whether this was an outlier. The assumption based on demographics was closer to the 10 point margin of BM.
They did say, however, that if they saw more polls like this they'd revise their benchmark upwards. This morning we got this from the Bernie team:
"His goalposts have shifted in recent months. When it became clear earlier in April that New York was out of reach, people close to Sanders started suggesting Pennsylvania was the real prize — but even that rhetoric has softened as polls continue to show Clinton holding a lead there."
"Sanders’ team thinks he lost ground in Pennsylvania after his wider-than-expected margin of defeat in New York, which it believes got out-sized attention because it was the only state voting last week. And now, while Clinton is set to rally in Philadelphia on Tuesday night, a sign of her camp’s confidence in the state, Sanders is eager to project the image that he’s looking ahead to the states ahead, opting to host an event in West Virginia — where he’s likely to win, but which does not vote until May 10."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/sanders-caught-in-political-trap-222380#ixzz46rfgHWap
There is some irony here.
1. Bernie himself is the one who put so much attention on Pennsylvania. He had boldly declared he was going to win NY and his team had called it a 'must win'-that they were going to win.
2. The further irony is that his team has also been complaining that there is something unfair about having multiple primaries on the same day: this is yet another way that the 'Establishment' has somehow manipulated the results.
Anyway, it was notable as well that Bernie's team was admitting they have lost ground-internal polls are usually more frequent and accurate.
We've just gotten a slew of polls that seem to confirm that he has indeed lost ground post NY.
A new Harper poll has her up 28 points: 61-33; and a new ARG poll has it at 20 points: 58-38.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html
Benchmark Politics tweeted:
"ARG +20% for Clinton. PA about to get major revision in benchmarks."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/724663608479641600
In that vein, there were some PPP polls out this morning that showed Bernie with a 4 point lead in Rhode Island and just two back in Connecticut.
BM revised RI again-they had HRC up by 6 before. Now it's more or less a tie-she literally leads by about .25 percent.
However, they haven't cut their revising on CT even though this 2 point race is the closet poll we've seen. They are keeping their benchmark at 55-45.
Finally, a new poll shows Katie McGinty ahead of Joe Sestak for Pennsylvania Senate, 39-33 after being behind 16 in early March and 10 in early April
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/pa/pennsylvania_senate_democratic_primary-4327.html#polls
I'd love to say my endorsement had something to do with it.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/id-like-to-endorse-katie-mcginty-for.html
It didn't, but I'd love to say it!
I also endorsed Chris Van Hollen for Maryland Senate and one more: how about Kathleen Matthews for Maryland's 8th Congressional district?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kathleen-matthews-our-choice-in-marylands-8th-district/2016/03/16/e8a911c2-ea27-11e5-bc08-3e03a5b41910_story.html
Let me be clear: my endorsement here is totally irrelevant and not necessary. Ms. Matthews surely doesn't need my help winning tomorrow.
But I'd like to see if I can be 3 for 3 tomorrow in endorsements. Again, correlation is certainly not causation in this case.
Not counting Hillary of course...
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