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Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Paul Ryan Announces the New Ryan Rule

It is very clear and straightforward: only three possible candidates will be the GOP nominee. Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and John Kasich.

"Paul Ryan is just super-fed-up with everyone telling him how great he is and talking about how he should be the leader of the free world:

"House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.) on Tuesday delivered a forceful statement rejecting calls from establishment Republicans who want him to usurp their party’s presidential nomination from the remaining contestants in that race."

"Ryan, who has spent a couple months making these statements, to no avail, arranged a hastily called 3:15 p.m. news conference inside the Republican National Committee headquarters. He insisted — in his clearest terms yet — to the GOP’s big donor and lobbyist class that he will not attempt to claim the nomination at the July convention in Cleveland."

“Let me be clear: I do not want nor will I accept the nomination for our party,” Ryan said.

"Because when you want people to stop talking about you, what you do is hold a press conference. Just to be clear, I’m not saying that Ryan actually wants to run for president this year. He’s smart enough to know that his party is a complete clusterfrack right now, and he’d lose. But he is running — just not until 2020."

* Speaking of clusterfracks, Manu Raju and Dierdre Walsh report that lots of high-profile Republicans, including some vulnerable senators up for re-election, are opting to skip the GOP convention in Cleveland."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/04/12/happy-hour-roundup-835/

As Mark Halperin pointed out on Due Respect on MSNBC tonight, the importance of what he says is not just that he is taking his hat out of the ring: it's that he is establishment the Ryan Rule.

Only Trump. Ryan, Kasich.

“I do not want nor will I accept the nomination for our party,” Ryan said emphatically today as his press conference aired live on all major news networks. He also went on to state his view that if the first round of delegate voting at the convention fails to produce a nominee, the delegates should then only choose among candidates who have participated in the primary. In doing so, he ruled himself out. But, without having to say his name, he also ruled out phantom candidate Mitt Romney."

"That’s an intriguing development, considering Ryan was Romney’s republican running mate in 2012. Numerous reports have subsequently leaked out that the two men came to despise each other during that run, which failed by millions of votes. Was this Paul Ryan’s attempt at belated revenge? That’s not immediately clear. Interesting, Ryan may have left some wiggle room. He limited it to “have participated” and not “are participating.” Does that mean he’d be open to someone like Marco Rubio, who ran but dropped out?"

http://www.dailynewsbin.com/opinion/paul-ryan-drops-out-of-a-presidential-race-he-was-never-in-to-begin-with/24447/

No, I don't read it that way. I read it as it has to be someone currently running. Halperin also said he thinks that all the candidates that left, more or less left in such bad terms that can't be rehabilitated now.

Jeb doubts he will be at the convention. The betting markets seem to take Paul Ryan seriously as he dropped from 5.9 percent chance to .6 percent after his press conference today.

https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html

The GOP convention will be fun though, for Democrats.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2016/04/12/how-gop-convention-chaos-could-help-clinton-win-the-white-house/

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