Hillary Clinton is going to be a Democratic nominee. As someone on MSNBC put it tonight, she can literally lose every primary remaining and still win. She is the presumptive nominee.
She won a huge win in Maryland, basically doubling Bernie down there-about 64 to 33 right now. She won the black vote by a huge margin and even won the white vote by 17 points. So she is going to get the majority of the 95 delegates in the state.
She won Delaware 60-39. She leads in Pennsylvania 56-43. He did win Rhode Island and while he lead Connecticut much of the night, she pulled away late and now that's been called for her too.
But what really matters are the delegates. I had predicted that she could come out of tonight with about 2160 delegates.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/according-to-benchmark-politics-next.html
At this moment, according to Real Clear Politics, she has 2137 delegates-including 1618 pledged and 519 super delegates. And there are still a number of delegates from tonight outstanding. So my estimate wasn't too bad.
There are also 193 super. Let's face it-180 of those are her's. So add that and she's pretty close to 2383 right now. In the next few days and weeks watch more and more of these 180 start to tiptoe over to her. After she won NY last week 50 more got behind her. The Berners try to claim that she has to clinch without SDs. Which is not true. Obama, Kerry, every Dem since Tad Devine invented the things in 1984 has won with SDs.
But some claim that she has to get 2062 pledged delegates. Whatever. She will get that too. Bottomline is this is over.
Tonight she spoke of 'love trumps hate.' Who was that a shot at?
Don't get me wrong, Bernie won't drop out tomorrow. But he is having a 'reassess' tomorrow morning.
His messaging is all over the place.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/sanders-campaign-messaging-222469?lo=ap_c1
He did a lot of whining about the process tonight.
We'll see if he pulls back on hitting her now. Many even some Bernie supporters are urging this now. Trump is liking what he's saying and praised him tonight.
Presumably he's not doing this to win Trump's esteem. Trump is also trolling Bernie and suggesting he run third party.
As for Trump, he called himself the presumptive nominee in the GOP and he is looking more and more like it. So much for the idea that he can't win 50 percent.
But Hillary is truly the Dem presumptive nominee. Tonight she focused on Trump and Cruz and look for her to accelerate this in the weeks ahead.
Many of us Hillary lovers have wanted this for a long time. Probably for me, I've wanted it since I was 21 years old and watched her with Bill on Diane Sawyers in 1992-she had to vouch for Bill on Gennifer Flowers.
I always felt like after Bill it should be her turn. And we're finally getting there. The betting odds now have her as 73 percent to be the next President of the United States.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
Trump is at 18 percent, Cruz 1.6 percent, The Bern, 1.3 percent.
Finally Dan Merica puts it well:
"After tonight's wins for Clinton, Sanders would need 107% of remaining delegates at stake in order to win the nomination."
https://twitter.com/danmericaCNN/status/725154557450420224
P.S. My career as an endorser has gotten off to a running start!
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/id-like-to-endorse-katie-mcginty-for.html
Chris Van Hollen defeated Donna Edwards for Maryland Senator.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/primaries-to-be-held-in-maryland-as-race-for-rare-seat-in-senate-is-open/2016/04/26/398d2ef0-0b4f-11e6-bfa1-4efa856caf2a_story.html
He won by a larger than expected margin of 17 points. When I heard about the large black turnout in Maryland I thought maybe she would do well. But in the end, Van Hollen was able to win a third of black voters whereas Edwards won just one fifth of white voters.
What hurt her is the Congressional Black Caucus refused to endorse her. Elijah Cummings wasn't feeling her.
I understand the desire for more diversity in the Senate-it's legitimate and I think we will see more. But in this race, I liked what I was hearing from Van Hollen:
"When I talk to people of all different races and different genders and different backgrounds, they say they are looking for someone with a history of delivering results," said Van Hollen. "It's not enough to simply vote a certain way or to provide sound bytes. Real work involves forming coalitions to deliver results."
Delivering results is what it's about for the Democrats in 2017. Some interesting comments by some voters:
She won a huge win in Maryland, basically doubling Bernie down there-about 64 to 33 right now. She won the black vote by a huge margin and even won the white vote by 17 points. So she is going to get the majority of the 95 delegates in the state.
She won Delaware 60-39. She leads in Pennsylvania 56-43. He did win Rhode Island and while he lead Connecticut much of the night, she pulled away late and now that's been called for her too.
But what really matters are the delegates. I had predicted that she could come out of tonight with about 2160 delegates.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/according-to-benchmark-politics-next.html
At this moment, according to Real Clear Politics, she has 2137 delegates-including 1618 pledged and 519 super delegates. And there are still a number of delegates from tonight outstanding. So my estimate wasn't too bad.
There are also 193 super. Let's face it-180 of those are her's. So add that and she's pretty close to 2383 right now. In the next few days and weeks watch more and more of these 180 start to tiptoe over to her. After she won NY last week 50 more got behind her. The Berners try to claim that she has to clinch without SDs. Which is not true. Obama, Kerry, every Dem since Tad Devine invented the things in 1984 has won with SDs.
But some claim that she has to get 2062 pledged delegates. Whatever. She will get that too. Bottomline is this is over.
Tonight she spoke of 'love trumps hate.' Who was that a shot at?
Don't get me wrong, Bernie won't drop out tomorrow. But he is having a 'reassess' tomorrow morning.
His messaging is all over the place.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-dem-primary-live-updates-and-results/2016/04/sanders-campaign-messaging-222469?lo=ap_c1
He did a lot of whining about the process tonight.
We'll see if he pulls back on hitting her now. Many even some Bernie supporters are urging this now. Trump is liking what he's saying and praised him tonight.
Presumably he's not doing this to win Trump's esteem. Trump is also trolling Bernie and suggesting he run third party.
As for Trump, he called himself the presumptive nominee in the GOP and he is looking more and more like it. So much for the idea that he can't win 50 percent.
But Hillary is truly the Dem presumptive nominee. Tonight she focused on Trump and Cruz and look for her to accelerate this in the weeks ahead.
Many of us Hillary lovers have wanted this for a long time. Probably for me, I've wanted it since I was 21 years old and watched her with Bill on Diane Sawyers in 1992-she had to vouch for Bill on Gennifer Flowers.
I always felt like after Bill it should be her turn. And we're finally getting there. The betting odds now have her as 73 percent to be the next President of the United States.
https://electionbettingodds.com/
Trump is at 18 percent, Cruz 1.6 percent, The Bern, 1.3 percent.
Finally Dan Merica puts it well:
"After tonight's wins for Clinton, Sanders would need 107% of remaining delegates at stake in order to win the nomination."
https://twitter.com/danmericaCNN/status/725154557450420224
P.S. My career as an endorser has gotten off to a running start!
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/id-like-to-endorse-katie-mcginty-for.html
Chris Van Hollen defeated Donna Edwards for Maryland Senator.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/primaries-to-be-held-in-maryland-as-race-for-rare-seat-in-senate-is-open/2016/04/26/398d2ef0-0b4f-11e6-bfa1-4efa856caf2a_story.html
He won by a larger than expected margin of 17 points. When I heard about the large black turnout in Maryland I thought maybe she would do well. But in the end, Van Hollen was able to win a third of black voters whereas Edwards won just one fifth of white voters.
What hurt her is the Congressional Black Caucus refused to endorse her. Elijah Cummings wasn't feeling her.
I understand the desire for more diversity in the Senate-it's legitimate and I think we will see more. But in this race, I liked what I was hearing from Van Hollen:
"When I talk to people of all different races and different genders and different backgrounds, they say they are looking for someone with a history of delivering results," said Van Hollen. "It's not enough to simply vote a certain way or to provide sound bytes. Real work involves forming coalitions to deliver results."
Delivering results is what it's about for the Democrats in 2017. Some interesting comments by some voters:
At a polling station in West Baltimore, not far from the spot where riots erupted last year following the arrest and death of Freddie Gray, voters were torn between Edwards and Van Hollen.
A 50-year-old woman who only gave her name as Harrison said she had a tough time choosing between the two, but Van Hollen's experience won her over."
"It's about what you are going to do for your constituents, not your color," said Harrison.
"Kim Waller said she voted for Van Hollen because of his role in getting Obamacare through Congress. The 52-year-old bus driver said the issue was especially important after watching her grandchildren spend time without health insurance after the death of their mother."
Even though she's a black woman, Waller says she was put off by Edwards' focus on electing a black woman to the Senate. "Why should you put your race in it? " she said.
In Pennsylvania, Katie McGinty defeated Joe Sestak. Another win for the Dem Establishment-and another beneficial endorsement from me! I'm sure that was the difference.
I'm kidding. It had nothing to do with it.
Katie McGinty won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate Tuesday night, beating Joe Sestak with a late surge fueled by millions of dollars and high profile party support from Washington.
McGinty, of Wayne, was declared the winner just before 10:30 p.m. according to unofficial results from the Associated Press.
With nearly three-quarters of the vote counted McGinty held a double-digit lead over Sestak, a margin far larger than many pollsters and insiders predicted.
Braddock Mayor John Fetterman ran a surprisingly close third, powered a big showing in his home county, Allegheny.
McGinty's win was a victory for the Democratic establishment, whose endorsements and spending elevated a candidate with deep party roots but who had never won an election and lagged in polls until the final stretch.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20160427_McGinty_tops_Sestak_for_Senate_nomination.html#AGxM6jgxpePkfUbg.99
See what some people don't get is that we need a strong Democratic party Establishment. We don't want a Democratic version of the Tea party. Between Hillary's win tonight and these other races, we are seeing the difference between the GOP and the Democratic party. We actually like our party.
A 50-year-old woman who only gave her name as Harrison said she had a tough time choosing between the two, but Van Hollen's experience won her over."
"It's about what you are going to do for your constituents, not your color," said Harrison.
"Kim Waller said she voted for Van Hollen because of his role in getting Obamacare through Congress. The 52-year-old bus driver said the issue was especially important after watching her grandchildren spend time without health insurance after the death of their mother."
Even though she's a black woman, Waller says she was put off by Edwards' focus on electing a black woman to the Senate. "Why should you put your race in it? " she said.
In Pennsylvania, Katie McGinty defeated Joe Sestak. Another win for the Dem Establishment-and another beneficial endorsement from me! I'm sure that was the difference.
I'm kidding. It had nothing to do with it.
Katie McGinty won the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate Tuesday night, beating Joe Sestak with a late surge fueled by millions of dollars and high profile party support from Washington.
McGinty, of Wayne, was declared the winner just before 10:30 p.m. according to unofficial results from the Associated Press.
With nearly three-quarters of the vote counted McGinty held a double-digit lead over Sestak, a margin far larger than many pollsters and insiders predicted.
Braddock Mayor John Fetterman ran a surprisingly close third, powered a big showing in his home county, Allegheny.
McGinty's win was a victory for the Democratic establishment, whose endorsements and spending elevated a candidate with deep party roots but who had never won an election and lagged in polls until the final stretch.
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20160427_McGinty_tops_Sestak_for_Senate_nomination.html#AGxM6jgxpePkfUbg.99
See what some people don't get is that we need a strong Democratic party Establishment. We don't want a Democratic version of the Tea party. Between Hillary's win tonight and these other races, we are seeing the difference between the GOP and the Democratic party. We actually like our party.
If Hillary Clinton is elected President in 2016, there will be 2 President Clintons in the United States. Bill Clinton has joked about being called the "1st First Gentleman" http://1stfirstgentleman.com/
ReplyDeleteLOL. I'm sure he'll be a pioneer in that regard.
ReplyDelete