Benchmark Politics comments that this may be a sign of consolidation-if the sense the Dem race is over takes hold.
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/725713208988852225
It sounds like this may be happening:
"Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton leads rival Bernie Sanders by 13 percentage points in Indiana, according to statewide polling conducted for IPFW."
"Clinton was favored by 54 percent of respondents and Sanders by 41 percent, with 5 percent undecided ahead of Indiana’s primary election on Tuesday."
"The survey, commissioned by IPFW’s Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics, found that while 93 percent of Clinton’s supporters said their preference for the former secretary of state is strong, only 75 percent of Sanders’ backers said the same thing about the Vermont senator."
"The relative lack of strong support for Sanders, who typically draws large crowds to his campaign rallies, is “a little bit surprising” and “opposite of what conventional wisdom would be,” IPFW political scientist Michael Wolf said Wednesday."
"Wolf said the most frequent answer to the question of why a respondent favors Sanders was “not sure,” and the next most common response was a negative opinion of Clinton. Clinton’s supporters most often cited her experience and qualifications."
http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/local-politics/IPFW-poll--Hoosiers-like-Clinton-12787113
Not sure why they support The Bern. I'm not sure either!
Benchmark Politics is predicting a range.
"As an aside, the Indiana race is completely in the margin of error. It's a tie right now. Could be 53-47 Clinton or 53-47 Sanders."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/725713208988852225
It sounds like this may be happening:
"Democratic presidential front-runner Hillary Clinton leads rival Bernie Sanders by 13 percentage points in Indiana, according to statewide polling conducted for IPFW."
"Clinton was favored by 54 percent of respondents and Sanders by 41 percent, with 5 percent undecided ahead of Indiana’s primary election on Tuesday."
"The survey, commissioned by IPFW’s Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics, found that while 93 percent of Clinton’s supporters said their preference for the former secretary of state is strong, only 75 percent of Sanders’ backers said the same thing about the Vermont senator."
"The relative lack of strong support for Sanders, who typically draws large crowds to his campaign rallies, is “a little bit surprising” and “opposite of what conventional wisdom would be,” IPFW political scientist Michael Wolf said Wednesday."
"Wolf said the most frequent answer to the question of why a respondent favors Sanders was “not sure,” and the next most common response was a negative opinion of Clinton. Clinton’s supporters most often cited her experience and qualifications."
http://www.journalgazette.net/news/local/local-politics/IPFW-poll--Hoosiers-like-Clinton-12787113
Not sure why they support The Bern. I'm not sure either!
Benchmark Politics is predicting a range.
"As an aside, the Indiana race is completely in the margin of error. It's a tie right now. Could be 53-47 Clinton or 53-47 Sanders."
"More accurately 54-46 Clinton or 52-48 Sanders."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/725752505708232704
Alan Abramowitz's model has been pretty accurate-he looks at three indicators: how far South or North the state is, percentage of black voters and percentage of independent voters. The model did very well on Tuesday.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/forecast-model-beats-the-polls/
Here are the predictions for the rest of the month.
It's surprising he sees her as only getting 47 percent in Indiana with 17 percent of the population being black. But the key is Democratic voters. Because he foresees a lot of independent voters he sees a Bernie win.
In West Virginia it's quite surprising he sees a tie-as this is a state you would assume would be Bernie's. It must be because of having a much higher percentage of Democratic voters.
I'm a little surprised he sees Oregon this close.
"While the model predicts that Bernie Sanders has a chance to win three of the next four Democratic primaries and is clearly favored in two, the relatively small numbers of delegates at stake in these three states and the expected closeness of the predicted margins indicate that he is unlikely to gain much ground in the overall delegate race. As a result, Hillary Clinton’s substantial lead over Bernie Sanders in pledged delegates is unlikely to change very much in the next month."
https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/725752505708232704
Alan Abramowitz's model has been pretty accurate-he looks at three indicators: how far South or North the state is, percentage of black voters and percentage of independent voters. The model did very well on Tuesday.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/forecast-model-beats-the-polls/
Here are the predictions for the rest of the month.
It's surprising he sees her as only getting 47 percent in Indiana with 17 percent of the population being black. But the key is Democratic voters. Because he foresees a lot of independent voters he sees a Bernie win.
In West Virginia it's quite surprising he sees a tie-as this is a state you would assume would be Bernie's. It must be because of having a much higher percentage of Democratic voters.
I'm a little surprised he sees Oregon this close.
"While the model predicts that Bernie Sanders has a chance to win three of the next four Democratic primaries and is clearly favored in two, the relatively small numbers of delegates at stake in these three states and the expected closeness of the predicted margins indicate that he is unlikely to gain much ground in the overall delegate race. As a result, Hillary Clinton’s substantial lead over Bernie Sanders in pledged delegates is unlikely to change very much in the next month."
No comments:
Post a Comment