Yes, this includes super delegates, which, as Bernie campaign manager Tad Devine knows perfectly well, is part of the system. If you were not allowed to count SDs, then Obama would not have won in 2008, John Kerry in 2004, or, indeed, Bill Clinton in 1991.
This the system. Right now she has 1930 delegates to 1189 for The Bern. This means she needs just 453 of the remaining 1,646 delegates for 2383 or 27 percent. Bernie would need 1193 or 73 percent to get there.
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker
This would have to include SDs which as Jeff Merkle, his one Senate friend, says, won't happen. The SDs aren't going to support Bernie Sanders who has been a nuisance and thorn in the side of the Democratic party for 35 years and who even now refuses to raise a dime for others in his party and actually criticized Hillary Clinton and accused her of campaign violations for raising money for them.
Last night, for the first time, Hillary could really talk about the homestretch.
"The Hillary Clinton victory party at the Times Square Sheraton Hotel felt like a wake for Bernie Sanders even before the race was called — supporters happily shelled out $17 for a plastic cup of wine while singers dressed in black sequins entertained."
"But as New York’s political establishment — New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and even recently hospitalized former Mayor David Dinkins -- all took the victory stage to rally the crowd, the buzz among campaign operatives huddling in the back of the crowd was focused about 300 miles north."
"Sanders' decampment to his home across the state border in Burlington to “get recharged and take a day off” sweetened the victory for Clinton staffers who have grown increasingly frustrated by the Vermont senator's sharpened personal attacks and stubborn challenge."
"Local elected officials like New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, who mingled outside of the second floor ballroom on Tuesday night, were already looking beyond Sanders to Clinton’s next challenge: bringing his backers into the fold. “The concern is the next steps, we’ve got to unify the Democratic party,” said Mark-Viverito, who campaigned tirelessly for Clinton across the five boroughs. The Puerto Rican pol said she was also already planning how to aid the campaign in a general election: “I’m definitely interested in terms of the general election in Florida, in any other place I can be useful,” she said.
"Clinton, battling long after she thought it would be over, in recent weeks has let her growing frustration with Sanders and his supporters erupt. But on Tuesday night, padded by a decisive victory in her adopted home state, Clinton opened her arms to begin the task of uniting the party. “To all the people that supported Senator Sanders,” she said, “I believe there is much more that unites us than divides us.”
"There's no place like home," Clinton told the voters who twice elected her to the Senate, saying even after wins across the country, "this one's personal."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-new-york-democrats-222183#ixzz46N4sSfxa
It was personal for me too, Hil. I did not want to see that man come in here and win my home state or even come close to winning it. I don't mind telling you, that early CNN exit poll gave me heartburn. They had her just up 52-48. Luckily, CNN just had a really bad night.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/a-very-tough-night-for-bernie-and-cnn.html
But the race is really in the homestretch now:
"But she also sought to emphasize that the clear-cut victory was about more than New York — it was about a turning point in the race that put the competitive part of the primary in the rear-view mirror. "
This the system. Right now she has 1930 delegates to 1189 for The Bern. This means she needs just 453 of the remaining 1,646 delegates for 2383 or 27 percent. Bernie would need 1193 or 73 percent to get there.
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker
This would have to include SDs which as Jeff Merkle, his one Senate friend, says, won't happen. The SDs aren't going to support Bernie Sanders who has been a nuisance and thorn in the side of the Democratic party for 35 years and who even now refuses to raise a dime for others in his party and actually criticized Hillary Clinton and accused her of campaign violations for raising money for them.
Last night, for the first time, Hillary could really talk about the homestretch.
"The Hillary Clinton victory party at the Times Square Sheraton Hotel felt like a wake for Bernie Sanders even before the race was called — supporters happily shelled out $17 for a plastic cup of wine while singers dressed in black sequins entertained."
"But as New York’s political establishment — New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, Gov. Andrew Cuomo and even recently hospitalized former Mayor David Dinkins -- all took the victory stage to rally the crowd, the buzz among campaign operatives huddling in the back of the crowd was focused about 300 miles north."
"Sanders' decampment to his home across the state border in Burlington to “get recharged and take a day off” sweetened the victory for Clinton staffers who have grown increasingly frustrated by the Vermont senator's sharpened personal attacks and stubborn challenge."
"Local elected officials like New York City Council Speaker Melissa Mark-Viverito, who mingled outside of the second floor ballroom on Tuesday night, were already looking beyond Sanders to Clinton’s next challenge: bringing his backers into the fold. “The concern is the next steps, we’ve got to unify the Democratic party,” said Mark-Viverito, who campaigned tirelessly for Clinton across the five boroughs. The Puerto Rican pol said she was also already planning how to aid the campaign in a general election: “I’m definitely interested in terms of the general election in Florida, in any other place I can be useful,” she said.
"Clinton, battling long after she thought it would be over, in recent weeks has let her growing frustration with Sanders and his supporters erupt. But on Tuesday night, padded by a decisive victory in her adopted home state, Clinton opened her arms to begin the task of uniting the party. “To all the people that supported Senator Sanders,” she said, “I believe there is much more that unites us than divides us.”
"There's no place like home," Clinton told the voters who twice elected her to the Senate, saying even after wins across the country, "this one's personal."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-new-york-democrats-222183#ixzz46N4sSfxa
It was personal for me too, Hil. I did not want to see that man come in here and win my home state or even come close to winning it. I don't mind telling you, that early CNN exit poll gave me heartburn. They had her just up 52-48. Luckily, CNN just had a really bad night.
http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/04/a-very-tough-night-for-bernie-and-cnn.html
But the race is really in the homestretch now:
"But she also sought to emphasize that the clear-cut victory was about more than New York — it was about a turning point in the race that put the competitive part of the primary in the rear-view mirror. "
“The Democratic nomination is in the homestretch and victory is in sight,” she said, the first time she has been able to unequivocally dismiss Sanders without backlash. “Under the bright lights of New York, it’s not enough to diagnose what works, you have to explain how you actually do it.”
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-new-york-democrats-222183#ixzz46N74P66m
Harry Enten:
"Sanders’s loss in New York means that he needs to do even better in upcoming contests than we originally thought to have any shot at winning more elected delegates than Clinton. More specifically, he’ll need somewhere in the area of 59 percent of the remaining elected delegates to eliminate his deficit to Clinton — he needed 57 percent before the night began. That means that he needs to win a state like Pennsylvania by closer to 10 percentage points instead of the 7 percentage points Nate originally calculated. (Sanders is behind in the Pennsylvania polling average by 14 percentage points.)"
"Indeed, the math just doesn’t look like it’s on Sanders’s side in upcoming contests. Besides Pennsylvania, he’s behind in all three of the other states with the biggest delegate prizes left on the calendar. He’s down 23 percentage points in Maryland — we originally estimated a 9-point Sanders loss would signal he was “on track.” Sanders trails Clinton by 9 points inNew Jersey, which he originally needed to win by 6 points. Most importantly, he’s trailing by 13 percentage points in California, where he needed to win by 15 points."
"Put simply, Sanders can’t win the Democratic nomination without a minor miracle. That doesn’t mean Sanders won’t continue to campaign, and minor miracles do sometimes happen. But the media shouldn’t sugarcoat this. There’s a reason the Sanders campaign is talking up superdelegates: Clinton can see the nomination in sight. Tonight reaffirmed that she is almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee for president."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=538twitter
The betting odds now give her a 94 percent chance of the nomination and a 71 percent chance at winning the Presidency.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-new-york-democrats-222183#ixzz46N74P66m
Harry Enten:
"Sanders’s loss in New York means that he needs to do even better in upcoming contests than we originally thought to have any shot at winning more elected delegates than Clinton. More specifically, he’ll need somewhere in the area of 59 percent of the remaining elected delegates to eliminate his deficit to Clinton — he needed 57 percent before the night began. That means that he needs to win a state like Pennsylvania by closer to 10 percentage points instead of the 7 percentage points Nate originally calculated. (Sanders is behind in the Pennsylvania polling average by 14 percentage points.)"
"Indeed, the math just doesn’t look like it’s on Sanders’s side in upcoming contests. Besides Pennsylvania, he’s behind in all three of the other states with the biggest delegate prizes left on the calendar. He’s down 23 percentage points in Maryland — we originally estimated a 9-point Sanders loss would signal he was “on track.” Sanders trails Clinton by 9 points inNew Jersey, which he originally needed to win by 6 points. Most importantly, he’s trailing by 13 percentage points in California, where he needed to win by 15 points."
"Put simply, Sanders can’t win the Democratic nomination without a minor miracle. That doesn’t mean Sanders won’t continue to campaign, and minor miracles do sometimes happen. But the media shouldn’t sugarcoat this. There’s a reason the Sanders campaign is talking up superdelegates: Clinton can see the nomination in sight. Tonight reaffirmed that she is almost certainly going to be the Democratic nominee for president."
http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/new-york-primary-presidential-election-2016/?ex_cid=538twitter
The betting odds now give her a 94 percent chance of the nomination and a 71 percent chance at winning the Presidency.
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
Harry Enten and Nate Silver, et. al, have been cagey all primary about the rise of Donald Trump. Probably in part because this throws mud in the eye of the Party Decides theory of primaries.
Yet, I don't actually think the theory does so badly. It just means that strong parties decide.
What we have learnt in this primary with the rise of Bernie and Trump is this: the Democrats are a strong, healthy party that was able to beat back an insurgent challenge for Sanders but the GOP utterly failed to stop Trump.
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