Pages

Saturday, April 9, 2016

Hillary Now Has Bigger NY General Election Lead Than Bernie

Bernie has been trying to sell the illusion that he would be a better general election nominee with general election polls with the general months away.

"What you have been seeing lately is that Hillary's lead over Trump has been growing and getting closer to Bernie's lead over Trump. This makes sense. The truth is that general election polls with anyone but the frontrunners-Trump and Hillary-are fairly meaningless at this point. As for that matter are national polls that show the race a tie-that probably include way too many independents beyond which these are states that have already voted."

"Out of five hypothetical matchups for the general election in November, the Democratic candidate would win handily in four of them. Clinton beats Trump 54% to 36% (+18) and Cruz 58% to 30% (+28). Sanders stumps Trump 51% to 38% (+13) and Cruz 56% to 29% (+27). Ohio governor John Kasich is most competitive in a head-to-head matchup with Clinton. However, she still wins 48% to 41%."

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_b5e76b2074da42c997193908b170981b.pdf

As for favorability those are almost negative indicators of who's winning. Kasich is polling best which just means the less chance you have the less you are vetted and the less your favorability gets pushed down.

In an age as partisan as ours, you don't expect to see highly partisan figures competing to be the next POTUS with high favorables. Even President Obama's are not sky high-though on the rise. Of course, as he's not competing for anything anymore.

As for Bernie in the general, nobody has taken seriously the polls that showed him doing better before as he hasn't been vetted. He has been a little vetted lately the Daily News did a good job-and now his favorables are upside down now too. 

No comments:

Post a Comment